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Tentpoles to the end of the year:

 

Nov 4 Eternals

Nov 11 No Time To Die

Nov 25 Venom 2

Dec 2 Dune

Dec 16 Spider Man Again

Dec 26 Matrix 4 (and others)

 

Not a bad list really, they really should all be aiming for a minimum of 15m. Hoping at least one of them (Bond) just totally smashes it and breaks 40m. Godzilla v Kong is still the post pandemic leader with 27.87m, which feels like an age ago already honestly.

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So 2nd Nov was holiday in AUS? Eternals should have released may be.

 

It’s a public holiday in Victoria. In NSW I think it depends on the workplace, in mine it’s a day we can have off at any time within the month. I worked Tuesday for example, but I’m taking Friday off. 

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8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oh. This is updated daily? Updating on THU seems weird.

It’s updated on Friday and includes Thursdays. You can see The Last Duel at 2.03m, but at the end of the week had made 1.99m, which means it made ~40k on Thursday. 

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At the sessions I checked it was doing pretty well, quite a few Gold Class sellouts and smaller screens selling out. Hoyts I can't access on Chrome for some reason, but before it crashed on me, every session at Wetherill Park was "selling fast". No idea what this means for numbers though.

 

Generally seemed to be doing well in Western Sydney though, I think having a more diverse cast and Chloe Zhao directing has had a positive impact.

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9 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

The Battle At Lake Changjin will release alongside with Dune. Any expectations from the film?

 

I wouldn’t expect more than $1m. Foreign movies don’t usually break out of the target ethnic group (if that’s a politically correct enough term). 

 

The biggest foreign language films that I can think of that did break out to some extent in recent years are Intouchables and Demon Slayer. 

Edited by lab276
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5 hours ago, lab276 said:

 

I wouldn’t expect more than $1m. Foreign movies don’t usually break out of the target ethnic group (if that’s a politically correct enough term). 

 

The biggest foreign language films that I can think of that did break out to some extent in recent years are Intouchables and Demon Slayer. 

Thanks ! Chinese Film generally target Chinese overseas audience. Some of the problems is that, many says one view directed film with lots of historical error. One of the Chinese audience says that it could have been cut down by 30 mins. Others are those international media &review bombing at IMDb. I was trying to figure out if we can pass that $900M, thanks to you, we got $1M (est.) from Australia. 🌼

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8 hours ago, LPLC said:

@lab276 What do you expect for NWH in Australia and New Zealand ?

 

Here's how the Spider-Man films have done in Australia till now:

 

Spider-Man 30.8m

Spider-Man 2 24.4m

Spider-Man 3 24m

Amazing Spider-Man 17.4m

Amazing Spider-Man 2 16.1m

Homecoming 25.7m

Into the Spider-Verse 13.7m

Far From Home 37.3m

 

And here are the biggest similar demographic movies of the Pandemic Era:

 

Godzilla vs Kong 27.9m

WW84 24.9m

Fast 9 21.1m

Shang Chi 16.5m (and counting)

Black Widow 13.3m

 

Bearing in mind that unlike other places, we're about to get a slew of blockbuster movies that may deflate expectations for Spider-Man a bit (Eternals, Bond, Venom and Dune before, and Matrix after). It's yet to be seen if the market will expand like it has in the past, or if these movies will eat into each other. In other countries Bond, Venom and Dune are weeks in the past, and Eternals has only just released, so Spider-Man will stand alone more clearly as the big Christmas release.

 

I'd say honestly anything over 15-20m should be considered a success.

Edited by lab276
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