Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, adaros said:

Three-body problem - isn't this Netflix series?

 

There's a CG animation that was just released in China

A Live-Action Chinese TV Show

and another Live-Action show for Netflix produced by Benioff and Weiss.

[Sophia Jane]

7 minutes ago, adaros said:

Three-body problem - isn't this Netflix series?

The original is a Chinese popular sci-fi novel series,recently we made the animation series of this

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

It's funny to consider, but it legitimately seems like IW / TFA worldwide is the floor for this. That would only be ~600 DOM + ~400 China + ~1050 OS-C-R.

 

Hyper Bull Case

1150 - 850 - 1900

 

Bull Case 

900 - 700 - 1600

 

Base Case

750 - 550 - 1300

 

Bear Case 

625 - 400 - 1050 

[ThomasNicole]

7 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

It's funny to consider, but it legitimately seems like IW / TFA worldwide is the floor for this. That would only be ~600 DOM + ~400 China + ~1050 OS-C-R.

 

Hyper Bull Case

1150 - 850 - 1900

 

Bull Case 

900 - 700 - 1600

 

Base Case

750 - 550 - 1300

 

Bear Case 

625 - 400 - 1050 

What amazes me is the fact that while we know it's going to be the smash of post-pandemic world, it's still hard to predict how much huge. Exciting weeks ahead

[IronJimbo]

20 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

It's funny to consider, but it legitimately seems like IW / TFA worldwide is the floor for this. That would only be ~600 DOM + ~400 China + ~1050 OS-C-R.

 

Hyper Bull Case

1150 - 850 - 1900

 

Bull Case 

900 - 700 - 1600

 

Base Case

750 - 550 - 1300

 

Bear Case 

625 - 400 - 1050 

I think your Domestic to Overseas ratio is slightly off, you have it at 40:60  in hyperbull and even smaller international split in the others

 

which I think is too low. It's gonna closer to 35:65

Edited December 11, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Borobudur]

50 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Speaking of HFR, with the amount of negative reactions to the HFR from the early reactions and reviews, it would be a annoying dose of irony if one of the films selling points actually puts people off rewatching this movie, and giving the film the gross it would of got without it.

 

I'm still hoping that my cinema just has the standard 24fps version when i go to see it.

I thought the reaction to HFR was quite decent?  In fact, the early reaction indicate that this is the best use of HFR. I recall the reaction to Gemini Man, Billy Lynn and Hobbit was way way harsher than Avatar 2. I even saw some praise to the HFR. 

 

Before the reaction reveal, HFR and runtime are the two most worrisome aspect and most likely to attract backlash but the reaction came out didn't indicate intense attack after all. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

I think your Domestic to Overseas ratio is slightly off, you have it at 40:60 which I think is too low. It's gonna closer to 35:65

 

Did you include my China number in the OS? All of the ratios above are in the 26-31% domestic split range. 

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

Did you include my China number in the OS? All of the ratios above are in the 26-31% domestic split range. 

No I meant purely DOM : (Oveaseas minus China), which is the ratio I think you have too low

To clarify, I meant he below ratios DOM:(OS-C-R)

 

Hyper Bull Case

1150:1900

 

Bull Case 

900:1600

 

Base Case

750:1300

 

Bear Case 

625 :1050 

Edited December 11, 2022 by IronJimbo

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

No I meant purely DOM : (Oveaseas minus China), which is the ratio I think you have too low

 

Yea I think the exchange rate headwinds in Europe, LATAM and Japan are gonna knock that ratio down quite a bit. 

[stuart360]

I actually wouldnt be surprised if the domestic/international split is even wider for this release, something like 20/80 split.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

Yea I think the exchange rate headwinds in Europe, LATAM and Japan are gonna knock that ratio down quite a bit. 

Did you take 2009 exchange rates then go from there?

The Increases from Market Growth in Asia + LATAM and Global inflation is a similar to the descreases from XR and loss of markets due to war

 

 

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by IronJimbo

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

I actually wouldnt be surprised if the domestic/international split is even wider for this release, something like 20/80 split.

 

Based on your DOM prediction, that would be a $4B worldwide total 🤔

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Did you take 2009 exchange rates then go from there?

The Increases from Market Growth in Asia + LATAM is a similar to the descreases from XR and loss of markets due to war

 

 

 

 

I don't think this is true but we will find it over the next few weeks

 

[Tokugennumataka]

25 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

It's funny to consider, but it legitimately seems like IW / TFA worldwide is the floor for this. That would only be ~600 DOM + ~400 China + ~1050 OS-C-R.

 

Hyper Bull Case

1150 - 850 - 1900

 

Bull Case 

900 - 700 - 1600

 

Base Case

750 - 550 - 1300

 

Bear Case 

625 - 400 - 1050 

Hyper Bull Case

1350(205x6.5) - 950(240x4) - 2400(400x6) 

Bull Case

1050(190x5.5) -750(205x3.6) - 1750(350x5) 

Base Case

850(175x5) - 550(180x3) - 1450(320x4.5) 

Bear Case

650(160x4) - 400(160x2.5) - 1150(300x3.8) 

Puny Bear Case

460(140x3.3) - 300(140x2.1) - 800(260x3) 

[Deep Wang]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I actually wouldnt be surprised if the domestic/international split is even wider for this release, something like 20/80 split.

 

Considering you have stated multiple times that you think this could get to $900m domestic, that would mean $4.5B worldwide with that split lmao

 

dang @XXR 4 Modsident beat me to it lol

Edited December 11, 2022 by Deep Wang

[IronJimbo]

US is one of the weaker markets for Avatar 2 in terms of the audience, people just love Avatar more overseas because of it's universal messages which just speak to them more.

I'm not saying the loss of XR rates of 2009 aren't massive, all I'm saying that off 750m domestic, a 1300m OS-C-R is too low. It's not a huge amount I would be thinking $1450-1550m

Edited December 11, 2022 by IronJimbo

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

I don't think this is true but we will find it over the next few weeks

When I said similar I just meant closer than you're given it credit. see my post above

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Hyper Bull Case

1350(205x6.5) - 950(240x4) - 2400(400x6) 

Bull Case

1050(190x5.5) -750(205x3.6) - 1750(350x5) 

Base Case

850(175x5) - 550(180x3) - 1450(320x4.5) 

Bear Case

650(160x4) - 400(160x2.5) - 1150(300x3.8) 

Puny Bear Case

460(140x3.3) - 300(140x2.1) - 800(260x3) 

no such thing as a puny bear so we can just write that one off

[stuart360]

14 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Based on your DOM prediction, that would be a $4B worldwide total 🤔

Its happening baby!.

 

Seriously my 'official' prediction is 750-800 US, 2.5bil total. Thats the official predicition, but in my head i'm almost certain its going to go well over 3bil.

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Its happening baby!.

 

Seriously my 'official' prediction is 750-800 US, 2.5bil total. Thats the official predicition, but in my head i'm almost certain its going to go well over 3bil.

 

 

Some say over 4b ww.  I'm certainly won't be suprised if it beats my 3.6b ww predict. Glorius BO run incoming Brother Stuart and Jumbo.

Wow 25%/ 80%  domestic/OS split..China with 750-1.2B +potential😱😱