Kong: Skull Island | March 10, 2017 | Tom Hiddleston, Brie Larson, John Goodman | Crosses 500M WW

[CJohn]

This seems like a desperate move to me.

[Dementeleus]

40 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This seems like a desperate move to me.

 

Of course it does?

[Cookson]

39 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This seems like a desperate move to me.

I think the overall consensus is that this film is lagging a bit as far as "hype". I think this late trailer and all those extra advance screenings show that WB thinks this film is worth one last push to get that hype. To me, that's a sign this film is epic.

 

These late development moves can only help the movie.

[Morieris]

50 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This seems like a desperate move to me.

 

I still think it should have been a bit of a slow burn thing but better late than never.

[Krissykins]

What's this tracking like?

[YM!]

6 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

OW o/u first 7 days of Tarzan's domestic run.... $60,797,712 / 7

Under

[YM!]

Just now, Krissykins said:

What's this tracking like?

Nothing yet. Thinking $30M-$40M OW with a small chance at an OW the size of LB ($53M)

[Barnack]

8 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

I do know about budgets thanks. We'll go with what the studio report though. 

 

And the budgets I provided were net, not gross. Gross is irrelevant because the studio reaps the benefits of tax credits. 

 

Do studio often report a movie budget ?, if they would we could go with those, but I never seen one studio financial report talking about a particular movie budget, just the complete slate total cost, almost all of the time we go by reported rumors and they do not have that good of a track record (not bad enough to be 100% useless, but really not that good).

 

I'm not sure Kong will get good tax credit if most of the shoot is in Vietnam(place like Australia tax credit are conditional for the movie being mostly made in Australia) and it is hard to know for how much a studio achieve to sell their tax credit even when we know the gross tax credit amount.

 

Gross is obviously irrelevant when estimating a studio profit, but is a good starting point to estimate similar movie net cost when they are not shoot under the same tax credit jurisdiction, anyway I do not know the last Apes movie net cost, after a Louisiana gross Tax credit of 26.42 million and I would assume some others, but we know the estimated gross cost ($235,329,911) as a reference point.

Edited February 26, 2017 by Barnack

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Do studio often report a movie budget ?, if they would we could with those, but I never seen one studio financial report talking about a particular movie budget, just the complete slate total cost, almost all of the time we go by reported rumors and they do not have that good of a track record (not bad enough to be 100% useless, but really not that good).

 

I'm not sure Kong will get good tax credit if most of the shoot is in Vietnam(place like Australia tax credit are conditional for the movie being mostly made in Australia) and it is hard to know for how much a studio achieve to sell their tax credit even when we know the gross tax credit amount.

 

Gross is obviously irrelevant when estimating a studio profit, but is a good starting point to estimate similar movie net cost when they are not shoot under the same tax credit jurisdiction, anyway I do not know the last Apes movie net cost, after a Louisiana gross Tax credit of 26.42 million and I would assume some others, but we know the estimated gross cost ($235,329,911) as a reference point.

 

The studios usually release the reported budgets to the trades the week before release.

[Dementeleus]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

The studios usually release the reported budgets to the trades the week before release.

 

Though those "official" budgets are usually not particularly accurate. 

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, Telemachos said:

 

Though those "official" budgets are usually not particularly accurate. 

 

They're all we have to go on.

 

I'm sure the trades would comment if it seemed way off.

[Dementeleus]

19 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

They're all we have to go on.

 

I'm sure the trades would comment if it seemed way off.

 

The trades wouldn't know themselves. But you're right, it's all we have to go on. 

[Barnack]

40 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

The trades wouldn't know themselves. But you're right, it's all we have to go on. 

 

 

As for all we have to go on, this is getting less true, some jurisdiction started to release the audited budgeted number used in the tax credit form, if the movie use a UK tax credit we often learn a year after or so the real cost (with sometime massive difference from the reported budget, 50%+ type of difference):

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2241523/Captain-America-given-18-8m-tax-credits-classed-British-film.html or

https://www.forbes.com/sites/csylt/2014/07/22/fourth-pirates-of-the-caribbean-is-most-expensive-movie-ever-with-costs-of-410-million/#2db0373b364f.

 

If the movie is shot in Louisiana we know the real cost too:

https://fastlane.louisianaeconomicdevelopment.com/Film/FilmSearch.aspx

 

And those match exactly the numbers used in Sony leaked accounting.

 

California, New-York and others also started making public their tax credit to project, but they only publish the local expense.

 

For example all the recent California state expense available for tax credit:

http://www.film.ca.gov/res/docs/pdf/Incentives Documents/Website Approved Projects List Online 2.10.17.pdf

 

New-York made them public (for stuff made after 2013), for example to know what was the minimum budget for a movie like John Wick:

https://cdn.esd.ny.gov/Reports/2015_2016/Q1_2016_FTC_Report.pdf

 

Maybe in a near future, Georgia will make them public, Vancouver, Montreal and other place and we will not need to rely on the press anymore.

 

 

 

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, CJohn said:

This seems like a desperate move to me.

I agree. Tracking must be awful.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I agree. Tracking must be awful.

It is probably looking like a Wrath of the Titans/IDR.

[junkshop36]

I think it looks like a crazy over the top fun monster romp. 

 

Unfortunately, I also think it's kind of getting lost in the hype of Logan and especially BatB. 

 

We'll see

[NoobSaibot]

I'm expecting something similar to the "Asia" trailer for Godzilla that was posted two weeks before the film's release. Though, that was more so meant to introduce the MUTOs. We already had an introduction to the Skullcrawlers in the second (or "final") trailer. I bet it's going to show more of Kong's battle with the Skullcrawlers, if that teaser hints toward anything.

 

In which case, I'll wait for the movie. Don't want to see too much.

[Cookson]

Here's a quick breakdown of what I see internationally and domestically:

GODZILLA made 328m in international markets. It made 77m in China. I fully expect KONG: SKULL ISLAND to have better legs there for a minimum of 100m. It should make at least what G14 made in all other markets, 251m, but should have better legs in those markets as well, but we'll leave it at 251m. That's a total of 351m in international markets alone.

Domestically here, I'm going to say the minimum of what I think it'll make, which is 120m.

That's 471m Worldwide. There's definitely an opportunity for it to hit 500m, if it's legs are better than G14 in international markets. Unfortunately I don't see it getting close to G14 in domestic numbers.

[Arlborn]

29 minutes ago, Cookson said:

Here's a quick breakdown of what I see internationally and domestically:

GODZILLA made 328m in international markets. It made 77m in China. I fully expect KONG: SKULL ISLAND to have better legs there for a minimum of 100m. It should make at least what G14 made in all other markets, 251m, but should have better legs in those markets as well, but we'll leave it at 251m. That's a total of 351m in international markets alone.

Domestically here, I'm going to say the minimum of what I think it'll make, which is 120m.

That's 471m Worldwide. There's definitely an opportunity for it to hit 500m, if it's legs are better than G14 in international markets. Unfortunately I don't see it getting close to G14 in domestic numbers.

I see it doing low 400M WW numbers because of exchange rates but it will all depend on China.

[Morieris]

Any knowledge as to what time this is dropping? Really hope it's not another "Stick around until 1130 PM!" situation.