Official Weekend Estimates: Maleficent - 70M, X-Men - 32.6M, A Million Ways - 17.1M, Godzilla - 12.2M

[MovieMan89]

I think this year blows away last year when it comes to film quality.

Save for the poor DOFP hold, I actually think the box office is getting what it deserves this May. TASM2, Godzilla, and Maleficent have all been among the worst blockbusters I've seen this side of the decade. All D/D- films, imo. Outta the 100+ or so 2013 movies I saw, I only gave about 3 a worse rating  than those 3.

Edited May 31, 2014 by MovieMan89

[lab276]

I think this year blows away last year when it comes to film quality.

Up to June?

[grey ghost]

Up to June?

Yeah, so far.

[MovieMan89]

The first X-Men, in 2000, couldn't manage a 3x multi. It hasn't just recently become a frontloaded franchise, it's been that way literally since day one.

Yes I know, but I thought at least a multi in the 2.7-2.9x range like the first one would happen. I never really expected 3x, more just hoped it could happen.

[darkelf]

X-Men number:

[lab276]

Yes I know, but I thought at least a multi in the 2.7-2.9x range like the first one would happen. I never really expected 3x, more just hoped it could happen.

But 2.7-2.9 is the peak of the franchise and that was in 2000. Why would it get better?

[MovieMan89]

The Godzilla holds continue to be hilariously awful  though. I mean X-men is a CBM and a frontloaded franchise, but there's no reason for a movie like Godzilla to just be falling apart so completely save for horrid WOM. Another 60%+ drop in its 3rd weekend.

Edited May 31, 2014 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

But 2.7-2.9 is the peak of the franchise and that was in 2000. Why would it get better?

Um a little thing called WOM? I don't know one person who has seen the movie and not declared it the best in the franchise. Ratings everywhere you look for it are spectacular, both from public and critics. Whereas the first X-Men wasn't received that enthusiastically. It had a poor multi for 2000. But obviously the series just has a very limited fanbase, and it refuses to grow. Especially since this is technically a 7th installment, not a reboot. New audiences may not want to catch up so they can jump on board, even if they are hearing great things about it. That's the only explanation I can think of.

Edited May 31, 2014 by MovieMan89

[baumer]

 

A Duke Rocky IV reference.  I love it!

[4815162342]

The first X-Men, in 2000, couldn't manage a 3x multi. It hasn't just recently become a frontloaded franchise, it's been that way literally since day one.

 

Duh, we all knew that.

 

But there's a big difference between the 67-69% drops of Last Stand and Origins and the 56-60% drops of X-Men, FC, and Wolvy 2.

 

No one really expected it to match X2's 53% drop.

[MovieMan89]

If Transformers only opens to around 90m like most of these May movies, no live action film will beat CA2. Just crazy.

[baumer]

OK to clarify a couple points

 

The data that has been posted , which shouldn't be (I have known over the years raw data to appear on other site where in a nutshell listing the data was shut down), is not the total gross up until that point in time it is a sample of theatres.

Also included in that sample is a sample of the theatres grosses that played Thu night/midnight , hence a higher than usual number at 10am (fyi you would fall of your chair if you saw say TA at 10am first friday, the addition of this data has to be taken into account as it effect final outcomes)

 

X films sample data at say 11am,2pm,5pm,7pm is not necessarily the same as films Y Z you might be comparing, so may factor come into it,

like how big is the sample vs  what is the total number of theatres playing (is it 3100 or 4000), is school out, isn't it, some other holiday, weather the list goes on.

 

When you try and factor in some comp films to try and help make heads or tails of raw sample the films used could be a different mix to what you are using for the actual results on what I think Fri, weekend, final cume etc is going to do.

Like you could compare a film that could do 30m on friday with one that does 50m, why because those titles may be seen to have similar trends better matinees , stronger /weaker evening, plays better in certain markets/regions etc etc so you are ultimately looking at what does TWS 3pm sample BO % to total day vs whatever

 

Lets say you looked at TWS OD 2pm compared to Thor OD 2pm if you had assumed the same % of business you would have projected TWS to do 43m for the day it did 37, now using Thor as example later in the day there was closer correlation between the two films say you looked at 7pm and based TWS on what Thor had done you would have now projected 37m. so in this case Thor could have been used as a comparion in the evening but not in daytime.

 

 

[jacquelinejane]

These X-Men numbers....

 

[grey ghost]

If Transformers only opens to around 90m like most of these May movies, no live action film will beat CA2. Just crazy.

I thought Cap 2 was going to start the summer not overshadow it completely.

[MovieMan89]

It will be interesting to see if Fault in Our Stars and Edge of Tomorrow opening next weekend both have great legs and end up two of the bigger success stories of the summer. If that happens, I think it will definitely mean that audiences are sick of the typical big blockbusters and endless franchises in general.

[Hatebox]

I thought Cap 2 was going to start the summer not overshadow it completely.

 

Lol, let's not go nuts - it had a very nice run but it'll barely crack 260m. The bigger story is that nothing touched 300m, TF pending.

Edited May 31, 2014 by Hatebox

[4815162342]

I think if some property that was seen as like, super untouchable like star wars or avengers disappointed that could see a shake-up.

 

Or we'll just get the grittier, younger reboot.

 

Luke and Leia full-on make out in Film 1 with potential for a slide into second.

Edited May 31, 2014 by Numbers of House Stark

[CJohn]

Lol, let's not go nuts - it had a very nice run but it'll barely crack 260m. The bigger story is that nothing touched 300m, TF pending.

I was expecting that for a few months now. It doesn't surprise me. It always looked like a weak Summer to me.

[lab276]

Um a little thing called WOM? I don't know one person who has seen the movie and not declared it the best in the franchise. Ratings everywhere you look for it are spectacular, both from public and critics. But obviously the series just has a very limited fanbase, and it refuses to grow. Especially since this is technically a 7th installment, not a reboot. New audiences may not want to catch up so they can jump on board, even if they are hearing great things about it. That's the only explanation I can think of.

Even the greatest WOM can't stand up to the irresistible force that is increasing frontloadedness. In 2000, the total of the OW grosses made up 25.7% of the total overall gross of wide releases, in 2013 they made up 31.1%.Bottom of the page:http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=opening&yr=2000&p=.htmhttp://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=opening&yr=2013&p=.htm

[CJohn]

All these terrible multipliers of TASM2, Godzilla and now X-Men made me realize that Pirates 4 had fantastic legs. It opened with 90M and ended with 240M. A dream for any of those 3 movies.