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rukaio101

CAYOM Y9: Part 2- Predictions

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Once again, I'll agree to disagree Rukaio. God damn we have different points of view.  :P

That's not what you said when we were discussing Red Pyramid!!!

 

Also, I maintain that your view is completely wrong. And that you're a doodyhead.

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Chuck Norris- 59.5/148.3I am malala- 4.7/16.8Me and my shadow- 48/177Polybius- 11/21Horror house 2- 15/26The fifth wave- 30/83Portentous dealings- 15/68MST3K- 7/18Dawn of the last six- 75/224

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Say what now?

I apologise if my mastery of witty insults has left you bemused, ChD, so allow me to explain. A doodyhead is a person who has a doody for a head. Is not my skill as a wordsmith unparalleled?!

 

(Alright, in actuality it's my way of lampshading the childishness of getting into an argument like this as well as making it clear to Alpha that I'm just acting and no real insult is meant. I maintain he's still massively fucking wrong about his predictions though.)

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I apologise if my mastery of witty insults has left you bemused, ChD, so allow me to explain. A doodyhead is a person who has a doody for a head. Is not my skill as a wordsmith unparalleled?!

 

(Alright, in actuality it's my way of lampshading the childishness of getting into an argument like this as well as making it clear to Alpha that I'm just acting and no real insult is meant. I maintain he's still massively fucking wrong about his predictions though.)

 

I'd say something as fancy but currently I'm too hungry to think straight.

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rukaio, this isn't an argument with you (I agree with a lot of your assessment actually) and I have no actual box office expectations for Yzma, really.

 

That said, I remember the podcast Shawn was on where someone claimed Maleficent would make 90M total because no one knows her name ;)

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rukaio, this isn't an argument with you (I agree with a lot of your assessment actually) and I have no actual box office expectations for Yzma, really.

 

That said, I remember the podcast Shawn was on where someone claimed Maleficent would make 90M total because no one knows her name ;)

Well, even if Maleficent wasn't that well known (which is something I'd contest) the tale of Sleeping Beauty is, so it had that.

 

Also, I'd guessed Yzma was more of a passion project for you than something you hoped box-office success for. Kinda like MST3K for me. Except with an incredibly low budget.

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And here's June's prediction. Finally managed to beat Alpha to doing a month. (Although I maintain I posted the first set of sensible predictions for May (and no I'm not going to let that go. You predicted Overdrive and Dauntless far too low and Star Wars and Yzma far too high.))

 

June 7-9

 

I expect Dauntless to easily take this weekend (another reason Dauntless will do well contrary to Alpha's claims: There’s little-to-no strong blockbuster competition in the week before or after it) but these two might put up a fight.

 

Now, it’s pretty obvious we at CAYOM tend to neglect romantic movies despite their popularity in real-life. And at the moment, I expect 5cm per second to be able to fully cash in on that popularity, especially considering the lack of romances this Summer. I’d say it’s most likely to perform like Romeo vs Juliet did last year, with a 20-something opening and then excellent legs. I don’t think it’ll do quite as well as RvJ (which had a big name draw in James McAvoy as well as an appeal to the comedy crowd) but with good reviews (as seems likely) it should makea  very respectable total.

 

Tyrant 3, on the other hand, may not be so lucky. Tyrant 2 had a large drop from the first movie and this quarter’s already had quite a few horrors to fill the gap. Since reviews are unlikely to be strong, I think we’re looking at another drop.

 

5cm per Second- $22.5m

Tyrant 3- $14.9m

 

June 14-16

 

As discussed before, this weekend is likely to follow the Interconnected/HDH pattern with both an mature audience-skewing live-action blockbuster and a family friendly animated film with little overlap between the two and both having an excellent chance of performing well.

 

Now, as for which will do better, that’s a bit uncertain. Thyme’s Time seems like the safer bet, with an already very strong first film opening. On the other hand, animations tend to be more of a slow burn than live-action blockbusters. In addition, Fate Stay Night has the advantage of a) being something fresher than the typical blockbuster fare and b ) coming after a blockbuster-free week. So it’s a bit of a toss-up. I expect both to end up in the mid-to-high 60’s though.

 

Thyme’s Time 2- $69.3m

Fate Stay Night- $67.8m

 

June 21-23

 

Bit of a toss-up weekend this one. Either film could do well or poorly. I suspect either Thyme’s Time or Vinland Saga to win the weekend though.

 

Vinland Saga has the same advantage as Fate Stay Night in that it’s something fresher from the typical blockbuster fare. In addition, I don’t think there’s been a hard-R action this Summer since Epicer Chase, so it’s likely to do well among that audience. In addition, being a hard-R action means it’s highly unlikely to be damaged by the family-skewing 39-Clues next week. That said, it’s still sandwiched between two huge weekends which I think will stop it breaking out and pulling an Age of Empires.

 

As for 1843 miles, hell if I know. Reviews aren’t likely to be good, but that doesn’t tend to matter too much for a comedy and in general comedy’s been underrepresented this summer (although that’s likely to change in July with Flight 552, Red Dwarf and Improper Chronomance). So I’m not too sure.

 

Vinland Saga- $41.2m

1843 Miles- $18.4m

 

June 28-30

 

So 39 Clues is going to open big. In other news, the sky is still blue. The question is how big. And honestly, I’m not entirely sure. I could easily see it increasing, decreasing or staying around the same as the last film. Obviously, with it being the fourth film, franchise fatigue is going to become a worry. Also, with Thyme’s Time being released just a couple weeks previous, the family audience isn’t exactly going to be starved. Then again, the 39 Clues series has the advantage of being a continuous story which may help stave off said fatigue. Then again, I always thought the book series started to go downhill at this point. Okay, my personal prejudices aside, I think it’ll decrease very slightly from the third one, at least domestically. It may end up doing better worldwide considering the rather sudden jump in popularity overseas between the second and third films.

 

As for 3:40AM, the series has been slowly decreasing BO-wise and, considering the oddly large number of horrors we’ve already had this summer, I expect this will do the same.

 

39 Clues: Beyond the Grave- $92.3m

3:40AM- $5.9m 

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Chuck Norris & Liam Neeson Vs. The Underworld - $72.6m/$181.5m

I Am Malala - $5.1m/$17.9m

Me & My Shadow - $43.8m/$158.3m

Polybius - $10.9m/$22.7m

The Fifth Wave - $47.2m/$120.5m

Horror House 2 - $18.5m/$30.6m

MST3K - $4.7m/$12.6m

Portentous Dealings - $9.7m/$30.2m

Dawn of the Last Six - $95.2m/$243.9m

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Overdrive: 50.4/134.9Things That Are: 11.4/34.1Log Horizon: 42.6/146.5Into the Dead: 22.1/54.0Epicer Chase: 15.3/38.9Star Wars: Age of the Republic: 124.2/380.0Train 38: 14.2/18.5/47.5YZMA: 46.1/55.4/155.9American Idiot: 21.3/71.4Dauntless: 61.8/201.5

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Overdrive: 53.1/135.2Things That Are: 9.6/27.7Log Horizon: 45.5/153.2Into the Dead: 29.6/65.0Epicer Chase: 6/18.4Star Wars: Age of the Republic: 140.4/402.6Train 38: 11.3/16.1/50.0YZMA: 53.2/66.1/189.7American Idiot: 35.2/110.4Dauntless: 47.3/140.5

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