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Weekend Estimates | TF4 - 100M (Paramount sticking to 100M for the Wknd Est)| More Numbers on Page 1

By CJohn, in Numbers and Data

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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No it will just be replaced by Annie I swear I see a Trailer for that movie on almost every Movie I have seen.

I also have seen the Annie marketing a lot (they even have a behind the scenes preview airing on the TVs of the theater lobby that's been playing for like the last two months), mostly because it's so far away from release, but I don't mind. It looks like the sweet/heartwarming movie to see over the holidays, Diaz's overacting aside.

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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

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Apes 2 might get to $250 million if it's any good... but $200-220 million is the range for this summer's tentpoles (nothing blockbuster about anything this summer). Planes 2, Tammy, Lucy or Sex Tape could break out - I'm expecting a breakout or two in July since Apes 2 is the only really huge film for that month. 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy could surprise... if it gets rave reviews and WOM similar to POTC 1 and the first Iron Man, it could be the film that makes August less of "summer's scrap-metal" (much like LEGO Movie did this February and Gravity did last October). Get on Up could be a surprise hit... I'm getting Help/Blind Side vibes from it if the film is well-made. Could be very leggy.

 

Overall, I'm expecting this November-December to pick up the slack considerably. Wouldn't be surprised if the top 4 films this year come from the holiday season. 

 

Big Hero 6

Interstellar

Dumb and Dumber To

Foxcatcher 

Fury 

Mockingjay 1

The Penguins of Madagascar

Horrible Bosses 2 

Exodus

The Hobbit 3

Annie 

Into the Woods

Inherent Vice

Unbroken

Big Eyes 

Untitled Cameron Crowe Film 

Night at the Museum 3 

 

On paper, that just seems like a solid lineup in terms of box office potential. Certainly about as good as this summer's. I'd say the 4th quarter should do fairly well (Judge, Gone Girl, The Interview and Book of Life all look like they could do well. November has better mid-level releases this year. December has 2 tentpoles rather than one)

 

This summer's been a big box office disappointment... here's hoping for some breakouts over the next few weeks to make it interesting. 

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Orestes Blockbuster

Orestes

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Just wondering, and I don't mean this at all in an insulting way, but why are so many people here upset that this summer doesn't have a movie with a huge domestic or worldwide total yet?  Catching Fire and Frozen weren't that long ago, and Captain America 2 did great considering its budget.  Shouldn't we want movies to be as good as possible?  Do we really want mediocre movies to make 350 domestic?  I'm fine with having a bunch of really good, entertaining, smart movies making less money as individual movies.  Hollywood needs to get its budgets down to more reasonable levels anyways, so this is fine.

 

Even though we talk about film quality alot, this is still ostensibly a Box Office discussion forum, and it's generally more interesting when a film wildly overperforms. Or underperforms. Quality frequently doesn't have anything to do with that, sadly.

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miketheavenger Box Office Gold

miketheavenger

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I'm actually a bit like baumer on Transformers. I think the first one is a legitimately good movie (not great though by any means) and enjoyed the second and third for the Action scenes. However, I am quite sick of the Bay-typical humor and the bad dialogue and the bad acting and so on. I won't be able to see TF4 until mid/late-July, so we'll see if I'll hate it as well.

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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BTW, a follow-up on Free Birds: a dissertation on why the time travel in Free Birds makes no sense on a logical level. Spoilers follow untagged.

 

So the plot of the movie is that the turkeys are going back in time in stop Thanksgiving from ever being about eating turkey. This implies the time travel is going to be used to make a parallel, newly dominant universe in which pizza will be the Thanksgiving meal of choice.

 

HOWEVER, this makes no sense. Why? Because the movie reveals that Reggie is the Great Turkey, giving Jake his motivation for the entire movie. Thus, it's a paradox making the movie's version of a timeline fixed.

 

THIS MAKES NO SENSE. If Reggie is the one who caused Jake's motivation, this means that time travel cannot be used to make changes. Yet at the end, we see a universe where we eat pizza on Thanksgiving. These time travel types do not make sense while mixed.

 

There's also the fact there's a scene with four Reggies, all from different portions in time but implied to be the same Reggie. Yet, the one who comes up with the ideas is the earliest Reggie in time, and the other Reggies act surprised at his ideas. How this makes sense, I don't know.

 

Fantastic movie though.

Bumping this post since now those who have actually seen Free Birds are online

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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TF4 estimated OD in China is 27.4M...

 

:o

It is literally the only place in the world where the movie is performing well, and it was always supposed to do those kind of huge numbers.

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filmscholar Blockbuster

filmscholar

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Summer of 2014.   The summer of 90 Million OW and 200 Million Blockbusters. Translation.  The summer of average not sexy legs.  Again People should learn from "Fallen" even "Moon".  Transformers has a lot of walk up business also it has the 4th to clean up as "Tammy" and "Earth to Echo" don't give audiences to much of an event film for the holiday so I wouldn't spit on Extinctions grave yet guys.  But This summer feels like we will have Zero break outs now if TF4 can't do it.  I'm not saying "Apes" can't do well cause I know it can but I don't feel it has the fanbase to really breakout like TF should be able to. 

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#ED Global Phenomenon

#ED

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Is that good or bad? Individual overseas performances are foreign (lol) to me.

 

That's a new record.

 

DOFP and Cap 2 made 39M total on OW.

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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Bumping this post since now those who have actually seen Free Birds are online

Fuck Free Birds man. Kill it with fire.

 

Still better than Cloudy 2, tho. 

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