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baumer

Early Wed #s RTH

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Yikes that is a HUGE drop for Ninja Turtles. A 62%+ 2nd weekend drop might very well happen. I hope Guardians reclaims 1st place! And Lets Be Cops looks DOA.

 

Thats really bad for Turtles, 60% drop is a possibility again

 

Wednesday drop doesn't guarantee anything. It can still get a big jump on Friday to counteract this drop. We'll see if it can jump 75-80% with another 40-45% on Saturday which would help it drop below 60%. 

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I saw LBC earlier tonight and it was just alright. Didn't laugh a whole lot. 

 

Will be surprised if it has better than average legs. 

 

Still, since it was cheap to make, it will be a success. 

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I saw LBC earlier tonight and it was just alright. Didn't laugh a whole lot. 

 

Will be surprised if it has better than average legs. 

 

Still, since it was cheap to make, it will be a success. 

 

 

Bummer.

 

It really did have good marketing/trailers/commercials though, and that should give it a boost through Sunday at least, or even next Tuesday.

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Is there a chance that guardians can be top 1 again this week?

 

or the giver/expendables will get it?

 

Given how close the numbers are today, there is a chance. Expendables could get up but its tracking low 20's which is unlikely enough to win the weekend.

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Is there a chance that guardians can be top 1 again this week?

 

or the giver/expendables will get it?

 

 

Frankly, anything can happen this weekend.

 

I think most people are predicting:

1. TMNT

2/3. GOTG / Expendables 3

4/5. Giver / Lets Be Cops

 

But they could all be relatively close. A few days ago I noticed a few folks here mentioning the possibility of 5 movies in the 20M range this weekend.

 

If something underperforms or overperforms, it could go up to #1, or drop way down below the other 4.

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Wednesday drop doesn't guarantee anything. It can still get a big jump on Friday to counteract this drop. We'll see if it can jump 75-80% with another 40-45% on Saturday which would help it drop below 60%. 

 

 

If it follows Planes: 

 

5m

4.7m(-6%)

8.6m(+82%)

13.1m(+53%)

10.1m(-26%)

 

31.8m(-51.5%)

 

Absolute, total best case scenario.

 

Percy Jackson SOM:

 

5m

4.5m(-10%)

8.2m(+80%)

11.4m(+40%)

8.4m(-26.5%)

 

28m(-57.3%)

 

Much more likely from an optimistic POV.

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Bummer.

 

It really did have good marketing/trailers/commercials though, and that should give it a boost through Sunday at least, or even next Tuesday.

 

Yeah, that is true. However, maybe the majority of the people who see it will like it more than I did and it will have better word of mouth than I anticipate leading to better legs.  :)

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So Turtles drops 5% harder than Guardians on a Wednesday and somehow one's really harsh and the other's solid? And y'all wonder why baumer's rolling his eyes...

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GOTG projections based on:

 

The Wolverine(Dropped lots of theaters):

 

4.8m

4.3(-10%)

6.9m(+59%)

9.8m(+42%)

7.2(-27%)

 

23.9m(-43.3%)

 

Absolute worst case scenario.

 

TDKR:

 

4.8m

4.6(-5%)

7.1m(+54%)

10.3m(+46%)

7.5(-27%)

 

24.9m(-40.9%)

 

More likely.

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So Turtles drops 5% harder than Guardians on a Wednesday and somehow one's really harsh and the other's solid? And y'all wonder why baumer's rolling his eyes...

To be fair, TMNT has a Mon-Wed drop of about 25%, while GOTG is looking at about 10%. Taking into account the high ends.
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To be fair, TMNT has a Mon-Wed drop of about 25%, while GOTG is looking at about 10%. Taking into account the high ends.

 

One's in the middle of its opening week, the other isn't. Look at Guardians' Mon-Wed drop last week

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