Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

[bcf26]

Hmmm...

Fifty Shades Darker - 58M

The Lego Batman Movie - 43M

John Wick: Chapter 2 - 24M

[Krissykins]

Lego Batman Movie was just too quiet here yesterday for me to predict a break out.

 

Lego Batman Movie $57m

Fifty Shades Darker $44m

John Wick 2 $15m

[Impact]

President's Day weekend will be the first weekend in a while where no sequel will be released!

[stripe]

Lego Batman - 68M

50SD - 48M

JW2 - 19M

Split - 9M

HF - 8M

ADP - 7M

LLL - 6M

Lion - 3.5M

RE - 2M

 

Top 10 - 170M

[WrathOfHan]

Lego Batman: 65M

Fifty Shades Darker: 50M

John Wick: 30M

Split: 8.8M

Hidden Figures: 8M

A Dog's Purpose: 6M

La La Land: 4.5M

Rings: 4M

Lion: 3.5M

Sing: 2.3M

[stripe]

16 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Lego Batman: 65M

Fifty Shades Darker: 50M

John Wick: 30M

Split: 8.8M

Hidden Figures: 8M

A Dog's Purpose: 6M

La La Land: 4.5M

Rings: 4M

Lion: 3.5M

Sing: 2.3M

 

I can't see La La Land dropping that much. It's going to benefit from VD proximity.

[TwoMisfits]

Finally gonna up my predicts for 2017 movies, b/c I see Lego Batman mimicking SLOP this weekend, except with a lower Friday.  I see $28, $37, $28 for a $93M OW.  Finally throwing out a big number on a predict, but I think this has SLOP buzz all over it.

However, I see LB sucking up all the weekend air from the sequels.  I'd put 50 Shades the Dirtier at 45% of the original's OW or $38.3M.  

I'd put John Wick 2 at the same OW as the original with a little ticket inflation or $16M.  I just see most guys either choosing themselves (or being good dads) and hitting Lego Batman (if they aren't doing Valentine's date night at 50 Shades...and even then, their dates might want Lego Batman).  So, even if this is better, it gets squeezed out as #1 choice by both movies...

 

 

[mahnamahna]

Spoiler

2/17-2/20

1. The LEGO Batman Movie: $48 million/$60.5 million ($162 million)
2. Fist Fight: $28 million/$33.5 million 
3. John Wick Chapter Two: $21.5 million/$25.5 million ($74 million) 
4. The Great Wall: $16.5 million/$19 million 
5. Fifty Shades Darker: $14.5 million/$17 million ($72 million) 
6. A Cure for Wellness: $9 million/$10 million 
7. Hidden Figures: $6 million/$7 million ($141 million) 
8. Split: $5.5 million/$6.25 million ($122 million) 
9. A Dog's Purpose: $5 million/$5.75 million ($50 million)
10. La La Land: $4.5 million/$5 million ($135 million) 

2/24-2/26

1. The LEGO Batman Movie: $29 million ($198 million) 
2. Get Out: $23 million 
3. Fist Fight: $15 million ($53 million) 
4. John Wick Chapter Two: $13 million ($90 million) 
5. The Great Wall: $8 million ($30 million) 
6. Fifty Shades Darker: $7.5 million ($84 million) 
7. Hidden Figures: $4 million ($146 million) 
8. Rock Dog: $3.5 million 
9. A Dog's Purpose: $3 million ($54 million) 
10. Split: $3 million ($126 million) 

3/3-3/5

1. Logan: $73 million 
2. The LEGO Batman Movie: $19 million ($228 million) 
3. Get Out: $13 million ($44 million) 
4. The Shack: $11 million 
5. Fist Fight: $9 million ($68 million) 
6. John Wick Chapter Two: $6 million ($100 million)
7. Leap!: $4.5 million 
8. Fifty Shades Darker: $4 million ($91 million) 
9. Before I Fall: $3.5 million 
10. The Great Wall: $3 million ($35 million) 

3/10-3/12

1. Logan: $39 million ($149 million) 
2. Kong - Skull Island: $33.5 million 
3. The LEGO Batman Movie: $13 million ($251 million)
4. Get Out: $8 million ($58 million)
5. The Shack: $7 million ($23 million)
6. Fist Fight: $6 million ($78 million)
7. John Wick Chapter Two: $3.5 million ($106 million) 
8. The Wall: $3 million
9. Leap!: $3 million ($9 million) 
10. Fifty Shades Darker: $2.5 million ($95 million) 

3/17-3/19

1. Beauty & the Beast: $160.5 million 
2. Logan: $19.5 million ($184 million) 
3. Kong - Skull Island: $14.5 million ($60 million)
4. Get Out: $5.5 million ($67 million) 
5. The LEGO Batman Movie: $5 million ($260 million) 
6. The Shack: $4 million ($30 million)
7. Fist Fight: $3.5 million ($84 million) 
8. The Belko Experiment: $3 million 
9. John Wick Chapter Two: $2 million ($110 million) 
10. The Wall: $1.5 million ($5 million) 

3/24-3/26

1. Beauty & the Beast: $91 million ($323 million)
2. Power Rangers: $40.5 million
3. CHiPs: $15 million 
4. Life: $12 million 
5. Logan: $9.5 million ($200 million) 
6. Kong - Skull Island: $6 million ($70 million) 
7. Get Out: $2.5 million ($71 million) 
8. The Shack: $2.5 million ($34 million) 
9. The LEGO Batman Movie: $2 million ($263 million) 
10. Fist Fight: $2 million ($87 million) 

3/31-4/2

1. Beauty & the Beast: $50.5 million ($410 million) 
2. Ghost in the Shell: $28.5 million 
3. The Boss Baby: $21 million 
4. Power Rangers: $17.5 million ($69 million) 
5. The Zookeeper's Wife: $7 million 
6. CHiPs: $6.5 million ($27 million) 
7. Life: $6 million ($23 million)
8. Logan: $5 million ($208 million) 
9. Step Sisters: $3.5 million 
10. Kong - Skull Island: $3 million ($75 million) 

 

 

 

Edited February 11, 2017 by mahnamahna

[Blankments]

1. The LEGO Batman Movie - 82.1M
2. Fifty Shades Darker - 41.3M
3. John Wick: Chapter Two - 22.1M
4. Split - 10.2M
5. Hidden Figures - 9.0M
6. A Dog's Purpose - 7.7M
7. La La Land - 5.5M
8. Rings - 4.3M
9. Sing - 3.0M
10. Lion - 2.1M
11. xXx: The Return of Xander Cage - 2.1M
12. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter - 2.1M

The Space Between Us - 2.1M

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 2.0M

Monster Trucks - 1.5M

Fences - 1.2M

Manchester by the Sea - 1.0M

The Founder - 1.0M

[Krissykins]

Looks like Hidden Figures will beat Split this weekend:

 

Wednesday: 

-	(1)	Split	Universal	$992,070	-31%	3,373	$294	$102,104,055	20
-	(2)	Hidden Figures	20th Century Fox	$958,131	-22%	3,401	$282	$122,542,123	46

[Impact]

Yikes! La La Land is losing over 1,100 theaters this weekend!

Wonder how much it will drop?

(Not that I really care-I actually have little interest in the film. The only BP nominees I actually want to see right now are Hacksaw and maybe Hell Over High Water. From what I read people like La La Lands music, but not so much for the ending and the script. Rather not get into anything though I guess. Never got a chance to see any of the noms this year actually.)

[stripe]

16 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Looks like Hidden Figures will beat Split this weekend:

 

Wednesday: 

-	(1)	Split	Universal	$992,070	-31%	3,373	$294	$102,104,055	20
-	(2)	Hidden Figures	20th Century Fox	$958,131	-22%	3,401	$282	$122,542,123	46

 

Not necessarily. Split has bigger Friday jumps!

[Blankments]

On 2/2/2017 at 2:30 PM, Blankments said:

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone, Sleepless, The Bye Bye Man, Hell or High Water, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, and Patriots Day are gone.

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, Gold, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, Monster Trucks, Passengers, Moana, and Moonlight are gone.

 

Fifty Shades Darker - 22 (debut)

The LEGO Batman Movie - 14/10 (2D/3D) total 24 (debut)

Rings - 15 (no change)
Split - 15 (no change)
John Wick: Chapter 2 - 11 (debut)

A Dog's Purpose - 10 (down 5)
Hidden Figures - 5 (down 5)
La La Land - 5 (down 5)

Lion - 5 (no change)
The Space Between Us - 5 (down 5)
The Comedian - 1 (down 4)
Manchester by the Sea - 1 (down 1)
Sing - 1 (down 4)

[Krissykins]

Here in the UK, Cinemas don't have the same 2 week agreement as in the US.

 

My local massive cinema chain dropped Resident Evil and Underworld after 6 days.

 

They're cut throat.

[filmlover]

4-day next weekend:

 

Fist Fight- $23M

The Great Wall- $19M

A Cure for Wellness- $8M

[Maxmoser3]

Fist Fight:$22 million 3-day($28 million 4-day),Cure For Wellness:$14 million 3-day($18 million 4-day), The Great Wall:$11 million($14 million 4-day)

[WrathOfHan]

All 3 day:

 

Lego Batman: 32M

The Great Wall: 20M

John Wick Chapter 2: 17M

Fifty Shades Darker: 16M

Fist Fight: 15M

Split: 7M

Hidden Figures: 6.8M

A Cure For Wellness: 6M

A Dog's Purpose: 5.8M

La La Land: 3.7M

[Impact]

Well unless if Fist Fight is somehow fresh-looks like everything will be rotten this weekend.

[mahnamahna]

Spoiler

2/17-2/20

1. The LEGO Batman Movie: $38 million/$47 million ($113 million)
2. Fist Fight: $22.5 million/$27 million 
3. John Wick Chapter Two: $19 million/$22.5 million ($65 million)
4. Fifty Shades Darker: $18.5 million/$22 million ($89 million) 
5. The Great Wall: $13 million/$15.5 million 
6. Hidden Figures: $7.5 million/$9 million ($144 million) 
7. A Cure for Wellness: $7 million/$8 million 
8. Split: $6.5 million/$7.5 million ($122 million) 
9. A Dog's Purpose: $5.5 million/$6.25 million ($53 million) 
10. La La Land: $4.5 million/$5 million ($134 million) 

2/24-2/26

1. Get Out: $26 million 
2. The LEGO Batman Movie: $25 million ($144 million)
3. Fist Fight: $12.5 million ($43 million) 
4. John Wick Chapter Two: $12 million ($80 million) 
5. Fifty Shades Darker: $9 million ($100 million) 
6. Hidden Figures: $5.5 million ($151 million) 
7. The Great Wall: $5 million ($22 million) 
8. A Dog's Purpose: $3.5 million ($57 million) 
9. A Cure for Wellness: $3 million ($12 million)
10. La La Land: $3 million ($138 million) 

3/3-3/5

1. Logan: $71 million 
2. The LEGO Batman Movie: $18 million ($169 million) 
3. Get Out: $13.5 million ($47 million) 
4. The Shack: $11.5 million 
5. Fist Fight: $8 million ($56 million) 
6. John Wick Chapter Two: $6.5 million ($90 million)
7. Fifty Shades Darker: $4.5 million ($107 million)
8. Before I Fall: $4 million 
9. La La Land: $3.5 million ($144 million) 
10. Leap!: $3 million 

3/10-3/12

1. Logan: $38.5 million ($132 million)
2. Kong - Skull Island: $32 million 
3. The LEGO Batman Movie: $12.5 million ($189 million) 
4. Get Out: $7.5 million ($59 million) 
5. The Shack: $7 million ($22 million) 
6. Fist Fight: $5.5 million ($65 million) 
7. John Wick Chapter Two: $3.5 million ($96 million) 
8. The Wall: $3 million 
9. Fifty Shades Darker: $2.5 million ($111 million) 
10. La La Land: $2 million ($147 million) 

3/17-3/19

1. Beauty & the Beast: $160.5 million 
2. Logan: $18.5 million ($163 million) 
3. Kong - Skull Island: $13.5 million ($56 million) 
4. The LEGO Batman Movie: $4.5 million ($197 million) 
5. Get Out: $4 million ($66 million) 
6. The Shack: $4 million ($29 million) 
7. Fist Fight: $3 million ($70 million)
8. The Belko Experiment: $2.5 million 
9. John Wick Chapter Two: $2 million ($99 million) 
10. The Wall: $1.5 million ($5 million) 

3/24-3/26

1. Beauty & the Beast: $92 million ($323 million) 
2. Power Rangers: $41 million 
3. CHiPs: $14 million 
4. Life: $13 million 
5. Logan: $9 million ($179 million) 
6. Kong - Skull Island: $6.5 million ($68 million)
7. The LEGO Batman Movie: $3 million ($202 million)
8. Get Out: $2.5 million ($70 million) 
9. The Shack: $2.5 million ($33 million) 
10. Fist Fight: $1.5 million ($72 million) 

3/31-4/2

1. Beauty & the Beast: $50.5 million ($411 million) 
2. Ghost in the Shell: $29 million 
3. The Boss Baby: $23.5 million 
4. Power Rangers: $18.5 million ($73 million) 
5. Life: $7 million ($25 million) 
6. The Zookeeper's Wife: $6.5 million 
7. CHiPs: $6 million ($25 million) 
8. Logan: $5 million ($187 million) 
9. Kong - Skull Island: $3.5 million ($74 million) 
10. Get Out: $1.5 million ($72 million) 

 

 

Edited February 16, 2017 by mahnamahna

[stripe]

LBM 33M/40M

TGW 19M/22M

JW2 18M/21M

FSD 17M/19M

FF 16M/18M

CFW 11M/12M

HF 6.5M/7M

Split 6.5M/7M

ADP 4.5M/5M

LLL 3.5M/4M

 

Top 10 3day - 135M

Top 10 4day - 155M