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Weekend Prediction thread 6/7-6/9 Play the Derby

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Max is gone. Drive-in is Ant-Man and Pixels.

Paper Towns, Mr. Holmes, Inside Out, Jurassic World, The Gallows, Terminator Genisys, Magic Mike XXL, and Ted 2 are gone. Drive-in is Fantastic Four and Ant-Man.

 

Fantastic Four - 32 (debut)
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - 21/4/4 (2D/2D with D-BOX/IMAX) total 29 (down 4)
Vacation - 20 (down 1)
Ant-Man - 13/4 (2D/3D) total 17 (down 14)
Shaun the Sheep Movie - 17 (debut)
The Gift - 16 (debut)
Ricki and the Flash - 16 (debut)
Minions - 13/2 (2D/3D) total 15 (down 4)
Trainwreck - 15 (down 1)
Pixels - 9/5 (2D/3D) total 14 (down 8)
Irrational Man - 11 (debut)
Southpaw - 8 (down 7)
Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F - 2 (debut)
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(new) - Fantastic 4 - 39.89 - 39.89

(-44%) - Mission: Impossible - 31.30 - 110.60

(new) - The Gift - 12.60 - 12.60

(new) - Ricki and the Flash - 9.76 - 9.76

(-40%) - Vacation - 8.80 - 37.00

(-38%) - Minions - 7.74 - 303.13

(-40%) - Ant-Man - 7.66 - 147.26

(-35%) - Trainwreck - 6.20 - 91.08

(-44%) - Pixels - 5.88 - 58.10

(new) - Shaun the Sheep - 4.89 - 6.48

 

(-44%) - Southpaw - 4.29 - 40.33

(-33%) - Inside Out - 3.02 - 335.72

(-44%) - Jurassic World - 2.18 - 635.95

(-58%) - Paper Towns - 1.97 - 29.38

(-29%) - Mr. Holmes - 1.68 - 13.26

 

(-61%) - Terminator Genisys - 0.37 - 88.56

(-61%) - Magic Mike XXL - 0.26 - 65.39

(-63%) - The Gallows - 0.13 - 23.50

(-31%) - Self/Less - 0.066 - 12.23

(-30%) - Dope - 0.051 - 16.66

(-89%) - The Vatican Tapes - 0.036 - 1.73

 

(-16%) - Spy - 0.35 - 109.47

(+44%) - San Andreas - 0.35 - 152.76

(-31%) - Mad Max - 0.21 - 152.50

(-58%) - Ted - 0.21 - 80.97

(+12%) - Avengers - 0.19 - 457.24

(-42%) - Max - 0.17 - 40.85

(-13%) - Tomorrowland - 0.17 - 92.76

(+1%) - Home - 0.13 - 177.07

?????Pitch Perfect 2????

(-27%) - Insidious 3 - 0.046 - 52.22

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I predict that Fantastic Four will hold up surprisingly normal during weekdays due to terrible word of mouth driving the movie then ultimately it falling 67% weekend 2. 

 

Fantastic Four

2.7

8.60

8.20 (-4.7%)

6.15 (-25%)

2.46 (-60%)

3.20 (+30%)

2.14 (-33%)

1.82 (-15%)

7-day total = 35.28

 

Friday + 45% - 2.64

Saturday +25% - 3.30

Sunday -25% - 2.50

weekend 2) - 8.44 (-67%) total - 43.70

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8/14-16

  1. Straight Outta Compton: $57 million 
  2. MI5: $18 million ($139 million) 
  3. The Man From UNCLE: $16 million 
  4. The Gift: $9 million ($27 million)
  5. The Fantastic Four: $7.5 million ($39 million) 
  6. Vacation: $6.5 million ($48 million)
  7. Ant-Man: $5.5 million ($156 million)
  8. Minions: $5 million ($310 million)
  9. Ricki and the Flash: $4.5 million ($14 million)
  10. Trainwreck: $4 million ($98 million)

8/21-8/23

  1. Straight Outta Compton: $23 million ($93 million)
  2. Sinister 2: $14 million 
  3. MI5: $12 million ($158 million)
  4. American Ultra: $9.5 million 
  5. Hitman - Agent 47: $7 million 
  6. The Man From UNCLE: $6.5 million ($26 million) 
  7. The Gift: $5.5 million ($35 million)
  8. Vacation: $4 million ($54 million)
  9. Ant-Man: $4 million ($162 million) 
  10. Minions: $3.5 million ($315 million)

8/28-8/30

  1. We Are You Friends: $17 million 
  2. Straight Outta Compton: $12 million ($111 million) 
  3. War Room: $10.5 million 
  4. MI5: $9.5 million ($173 million) 
  5. No Escape: $6 million ($8 million) 
  6. Sinister 2: $5.5 million ($22 million) 
  7. American Ultra: $5 million ($17 million) 
  8. The Gift: $4 million ($41 million) 
  9. The Man From UNCLE: $3.5 million ($31 million) 
  10. Hitman - Agent 47: $3 million ($11 million) 

9/4-9/7

  1. War Room: $11.5 million/$14.5 million ($29 million) 
  2. We Are Your Friends: $11 million/$14 million 
  3. Straight Outta Compton: $9 million/$11 million ($126 million)
  4. MI5: $8.5 million/$10 million ($187 million)
  5. The Transporter Refueled: $6 million/$7 million 
  6. A Walk in the Woods: $5 million/$5.75 million ($8 million) 
  7. American Ultra: $4 million/$4.5 million ($23 million) 
  8. No Escape: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($14 million) 
  9. Sinister 2: $3 million/$3.5 million ($27 million)
  10. The Gift: $3 million/$3.5 million ($46 million)
Edited by mahnamahna
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1. Straight Outta Compton - 39M

2. The Man from UNCLE - 17M

3. MI5 - 14M

4. Fantastic Four - 8M

5. The Gift - 7.1M

 

The other holdovers will have standard falls. 

If MI5 fell 47% against F4, why would it drop 50%+ against UNCLE? Should get 40-45% with how dead the BO is. 

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If MI5 fell 47% against F4, why would it drop 50%+ against UNCLE? Should get 40-45% with how dead the BO is. 

 

UNCLE is far more direct competition in the same genre, and I expect this week's drop was a little soft because a lot of people saw the reviews and went "Eh, let's see MI5 instead". If UNCLE gets terrible buzz as well, the drop will likely be less. 

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  1. Straight Outta Compton - $50.8m
  2. The Man From U.N.C.L.E - $24.4m
  3. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - $15.3m
  4. Fantastic Four - $8.6m
  5. The Gift - $7m
  6. Vacation - $5.4m
  7. Minions - $5m
  8. Ant-Man - $4.8m
  9. Ricki & The Flash - $4.4m
  10. Trainwreck - $4m
Edited by Spaghetti
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