Jump to content

Impact

Weekend Prediction thread 5/10-5/12 Play the Derby

Recommended Posts

2/13-2/15

  1. 50 Shades of Grey: $118.5 million/$135 million 
  2. SpongeBob 2: $41 million/$51 million ($122 million)
  3. Kingsman: $33 million/$39.5 million 
  4. American Sniper: $26.5 million/$33 million ($329 million) 
  5. Jupiter Ascending: $8 million/$9 million ($31 million)
  6. The Imitation Game: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($84 million) 
  7. Paddington: $5 million/$6 million ($65 million)
  8. The Wedding Ringer: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($63 million)
  9. Project Almanac: $3.5 million/$4 million ($21 million)
  10. Black or White: $3 million/$3.5 mililon ($18 million)

2/20-2/22

  1. 50 Shades of Grey: $33 million ($183 million) 
  2. SpongeBob 2: $24 million ($153 million)
  3. American Sniper: $20 million ($355 million)
  4. Kingsman: $16 million ($61 million)
  5. McFarland: $11 million 
  6. Hot Tub Time Machine 2: $6.5 million
  7. Jupiter Ascending: $5 million ($38 million)
  8. The Imitation Game: $4.5 million ($90 million)
  9. Paddington: $4 million ($69 million)
  10. The DUFF: $3 million 

2/27-3/1

  1. Focus: $23 million
  2. SpongeBob 2: $17.5 million ($176 million) 
  3. 50 Shades of Grey: $15.5 million ($206 million)
  4. American Sniper: $14 million ($376 million)
  5. Kingsman: $10 million ($76 million)
  6. The Lazarus Effect: $9 million 
  7. McFarland: $8.5 million ($23 million)
  8. The Imitation Game: $3.5 million ($95 million)
  9. Jupiter Ascending: $3 million ($43 million) 
  10. Paddington: $3 million ($73 million) 

3/6-3/8

  1. Chappie: $22 million
  2. Unfinished Business: $19.5 million
  3. SpongeBob 2: $13 million ($194 million) 
  4. Focus: $12 million ($42 million)
  5. American Sniper: $10 million ($392 million)
  6. 50 Shades of Grey: $8 million ($219 million)
  7. McFarland: $7 million ($33 million)
  8. Kingsman: $5.5 million ($85 million)
  9. The Lazarus Effect: $3 million ($14 million)
  10. The Imitation Game: $2.5 million ($99 million)
Link to comment
Share on other sites





Look at those 50 SoG number that you guys predict and I really wish the film could achieve them.

 

It's been 11 years since the Passion of the Christ. Time for a new February opening record!!!

 

100M opening would also be the biggest R-rated film ever.

It helps that 50 Shades very well could do 60-65% of its BO over its first 4 days lol  :lol:

 

If it does get $135 million the 4 day, I would guess a $235-240 million DOM finish. Possible could develop slight legs and get to $260-270 million since the 3 weeks after its OW are pretty dismal as far as movies worth seeing. Still great for an R-rated erotic drama. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3-day

 

Fifty Shades of Grey  -  78M

Kingsman: The Secret Service  -  25M

_______________________________________________

 

The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water  -38%

Jupiter Ascending  -61%

American Sniper  -26%

Seventh Son  -67%

Link to comment
Share on other sites



3-day

Fifty Shades of Grey - 78M

Kingsman: The Secret Service - 25M

_______________________________________________

The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water -38%

Jupiter Ascending -61%

American Sniper -26%

Seventh Son -67%

Am thinking a less than10% drop for AS

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3-day weekend:

 

1. Fifty Shades of Grey - $82.6m

2. The Spongebob Movie: Sponge out of Water - $40.3m

3. Kingsman: The Secret Service - $27.1m

4. American Sniper - $20.4m

5. Jupiter Ascending - $10.7m

6. The Imitation Game - $4.5m

7. Paddington - $4.4m

8. Seventh Son - $4.1m

9. The Wedding Ringer - $3.7m

10. Project Almanac - $3.6m

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites





Or maybe its because I want something not named 50 Shades to be number one on my bday ;):lol:

(I do see at least a 65% drop though for 50 Shades)

50 Shades will be either this year's Godzilla or Watchmen in comparison they had solid debuts but after those debuts they both dropped hard their second weekends
Link to comment
Share on other sites







The most obvious comparison of what we should expect in terms of legs for Fifty Shades is the Friday the 13th remake which opened on the same exact date six years ago. Practically no one is gonna want to see the movie after the opening weekend blows over.

 

Friday the 13th is not the movie to look at. Valentine's day or 50 best dates are better comparissions. Friday the 13th had a big opening day because it was a horror movie opening on Friday and on 13th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Friday the 13th is not the movie to look at. Valentine's day or 50 best dates are better comparissions. Friday the 13th had a big opening day because it was a horror movie opening on Friday and on 13th.

And Fifty Shades' is based on an extremely popular novel that's going to lead to an opening is going to be just as frontloaded as Friday the 13th's was. And will burned up pretty much all its demand by the end of the weekend. This is one property where no one will care at all after opening weekend.

 

I currently have it pegged at an $80M 4-day opening by the way.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



% drops are 3-day drops from last weekend

 

(new) - 50 Shades of Grey - 82.05 / 91.22 - 91.22

(-39%) - Spongebob - 33.72 / 43.00 - 107.56

(new) - Kingsmen - 22.62 / 26.26 - 26.26

(-25%) - American Sniper - 17.49 / 20.49 - 309.41

(-38%) - Jupiter Ascending - 11.43 / 13.35 - 37.34

(-16%) - Paddington - 4.36 / 5.83 - 63.93

(+6%) - Black or White - 4.80 / 5.53 - 20.18

(-2%) - Wedding Ringer - 4.61 / 5.32 - 61.63

(-40%) - The Seventh Son - 4.32 / 5.07 - 14.48

(-16%) - Project Almanac - 4.38 / 5.07 - 22.24

(-18%) - The Imitation Game - 3.86 / 4.57 - 80.64

 

(-39%) - Boy Next Door - 2.49 / 2.87 - 34.98

(+14%) - Selma - 1.93 / 2.28 - 49.35

(+5%) - Birdman - 1.36 / 1.62 - 37.22

(-41%) - Taken 3 - 1.25 / 1.44 - 87.16

(+15%) - The Theory of Everything - 1.14 / 1.37 - 33.77

(+3%) - Whiplash - 0.79 / 0.94 - 10.77

 

Into the Woods - 0.65 / 0.81 - 126.71

Wild - 0.59 / 0.72 - 37.34

Hobbit - 0.60 / 0.72 - 253.89

Mockingjay - 0.45 / 0.54 - 336.35

Night at the Museum - 0.40 / 0.52 - 111.10

The Loft - 0.44 / 0.51 - 6.20

 

Unbroken - 0.35 / 0.43 - 115.23

Big Hero 6 - 0.32 / 0.41 - 218.98

Strange Magic - 0.28 / 0.38 - 12.05

 

Foxcatcher - 0.25 / 0.30 - 12.10

Penguins of Madagascar - 0.20 / 0.26 - 82.40

Interstellar - 0.19 / 0.23 - 187.18

Annie - 0.17 / 0.22 - 85.27

Link to comment
Share on other sites







  1. 50 Shades of Grey:: $178 million/$206 million 
  2. SpongeBob 2: $40.5 million/$51 million ($115 million) 
  3. Kingsman: $33 million/$38.5 million
  4. American Sniper: $22 million/$26.5 million ($314 million) 
  5. Jupiter Ascending: $11 million/$13 million ($37 million) 

 

That top 5 for the 4 day lol... or even 3 day. My crazy 2002-2004 levels of attendance projection. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.