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grim22

Weekend Numbers (Nov 14-16) pg 39

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Madagascar 2 was hurt by Bolt in weekend 3. BH6 will get 4 extra days as the only animated/family movie in the market. It depends on how much Penguins hurts it among families. I think 200 is easy, much beyond that will depend on Penguins breaking out or not.

 

Or, you know, Mockingjay could hurt it since it plays like a 4 quadrant movie, we will know for sure next weekend as I expect the dailies to keep matching Madagascar 2 this week.

 

It may not hurt with the younger kids' demographic since THG isn't exactly the best material for the little'uns. But Penguins is going to take a swipe at that crowd the next weekend out.

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so BH6 could finish with $173m

 

BH6 is holding better.  Madagascar 2 opened bigger ($63m) had a 44.5% drop it's second w/e. BH6's 2nd w/e is looking to be bigger. As said no animated movie opening in it's 3rd w/e (which lead to a 55% drop)  As a sequel it was probably also more front loaded.

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Madagascar 2 was hurt by Bolt in weekend 3. BH6 will get 4 extra days as the only animated/family movie in the market. It depends on how much Penguins hurts it among families. I think 200 is easy, much beyond that will depend on Penguins breaking out or not.

 

Or, you know, Mockingjay could hurt it since it plays like a 4 quadrant movie, we will know for sure next weekend as I expect the dailies to keep matching Madagascar 2 this week.

that means 10% drops less for 4 days $35m - maybe $4m more than Mad2

 

any chance for $200m depends on who has better Xmas holds cute Penguins or a cute Robot

Edited by Rudolf
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BH6 is holding better.  Madagascar 2 opened bigger ($63m) had a 44.5% drop it's second w/e. BH6's 2nd w/e is looking to be bigger. As said no animated movie opening in it's 3rd w/e (which lead to a 55% drop)  As a sequel it was probably also more front loaded.

 

Yeah... there was a pretty big difference in OW numbers between Madagascar 2 and BH6, so the fact that BH6 has almost the same numbers (note, that this is overall numbers not percentages) is promising  If it has the same number as Madagascar on Thursday, for example, that means that it dropped far less in terms of percentage than Madagascar 2 did.

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BH6 is holding better.  Madagascar 2 opened bigger ($63m) had a 44.5% drop it's second w/e. BH6's 2nd w/e is looking to be bigger. As said no animated movie opening in it's 3rd w/e (which lead to a 55% drop)  As a sequel it was probably also more front loaded.

The best comparison for BH6 will always be WiR. Both are original animated movies with great reviews that opened on the first Friday of November.

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The best comparison for BH6 will always be WiR. Both are original animated movies with great reviews that opened on the first Friday of November.

However WiR had a big advantage in having an extra week in November to make its money over BH6.

 

WiR had three weeks before Breaking Dawn 2 to make its money, BH6 only has two weeks before MJ1. :ph34r:

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that means 10% drops less for 4 days $35m - maybe $4m more than Mad2

 

any chance for $200m depends on who has better Xmas holds cute Penguins or a cute Robot

 

Why are you insisting on holding its legs up against Mad2's?  The numbers are running similarly now but BH6 has held better to its OW number than Mad2 did.

 

Mad2's OW was 63m and its next Fri is 17m (26.9%)

BH6's OW was 56 and its Fri estimate is 17m (30.3%)

 

There's still a noticible difference in those numbers.  BH6 started lower but is steadily holding at a higher percentage of it's OW number than Mad2 was.

Edited by Sal
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However WiR had a big advantage in having an extra week in November to make its money over BH6.

 

WiR had three weeks before Breaking Dawn 2 to make its money, BH6 only has two weeks before MJ1. :ph34r:

but BH6 is nearer to Xmas to potentially exploit it more

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However WiR had a big advantage in having an extra week in November to make its money over BH6.

 

WiR had three weeks before Breaking Dawn 2 to make its money, BH6 only has two weeks before MJ1. :ph34r:

 

BH6 from the looks it's lower dailies, Veteran's Day jump and higher Friday and Saturday % increases looks to be skewing younger and more family audience than WIR.  I think MJI even though it comes sooner won't have as great an impact as say when Penguins shows up.

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BH6 from the looks it's lower dailies, Veteran's Day jump and higher Friday and Saturday % increases looks to be skewing younger and more family audience than WIR.  I think MJI even though it comes sooner won't have as great an impact as say when Penguins shows up.

 

I hate to say this, but I'm guessing it's also the type of movie that's only going to gain interest with the older sections of it's demographic once they've already seen the other movies in 'their' age range.  They might be interested in it, but not enough to prioritize it above something highly anticipated, like Mockingjay.

 

I think it does potentially have a lot of appeal to a range of ages, but they've got to actually see it to realise that!

Edited by Sal
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so BH6 could finish with $173m

If this were to happen, then it would mean that Big Hero 6 would have literally the worst OW multiplier of any WDAS animated feature this century, and quite possibly ever. This seems extremely unlikely to me, given the generally very positive audience response.

 

I think it does potentially have a lot of appeal to a range of ages, but they've got to actually see it to realise that!

Or hear about it from others, with some enthusiasm. Remember that even Frozen took a couple of weeks to get its legs. Big Hero 6 won't be another Frozen, of course, but I can't imagine it being another Madagascar 2 (with such weak legs), either.

Edited by Melvin Frohike
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