TStechnij Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 The Big Short could win. Like, I'm close to calling it the frontrunner. Trumbo and Mad Max are looking more likely by the day. Hateful Eight had like a 2% chance. They aren't sending out screeners and it isn't supposed to be that good. A little concerned about Bridge of Spies. Brooklyn is still in the race. The Globes not going for it is super expected and predictable. It doesn't mean much. It is still probably ahead of Room. I think either Carol or The Big Short are going to swoop up and win. There is real passion behind these films unlike Spotlight which just got notice out of needing a front runner. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 One thing-is anyone predicting Big Short to be nominated for director? Unless if it's Argo or Driving Miss Daisy-no modern day film has won picture without director. The Martian I do see getting director due to Ridley Scott, I could see a BP/BD split here due to this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 I could definitely see a split, with Spotlight taking Picture and Ridley taking director as a lifetime achievement. It's most likely going to be his last shot, after all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 3 minutes ago, filmlover said: I could definitely see a split, with Spotlight taking Picture and Ridley taking director as a lifetime achievement. It's most likely going to be his last shot, after all. Also as I said before-BP/BD splits are usually when the more famous or more overdue director wins against a rather unknown director. (Even Hitchcock's and Coppola's losses were due to this when they split) With the exception of 2000-which was Sondeberg beating Ridley Scott actually! (Although Ang Lee was considered the frontrunner due to a possible vote split. Good thing that didn't win, it has not aged well it seems) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 6 minutes ago, Impact said: One thing-is anyone predicting Big Short to be nominated for director? Unless if it's Argo or Driving Miss Daisy-no modern day film has won picture without director. The Martian I do see getting director due to Ridley Scott, I could see a BP/BD split here due to this. If it's momentum continues to build it could definitely get director. I'm not confident anyone besides Innaritu (gross) is locked there. In also not sure The Matian is still a lock for best picture, but somehow feel more comfortable about Scott. Regardless, McKay deserves a nod. The whole reason this film is even in the conversation is because of his vision. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 One thing that might go against Spotlight is if it fails to get any acting nominations-remember films with no acting nominations don't win the Oscar that much. (Not as much as no screenplay nom, which the last 2 films to win without a screenplay nom were Titanic and Sound of Music-aka the biggest films ever at that time) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 15 minutes ago, TStechnij said: If it's momentum continues to build it could definitely get director. I'm not confident anyone besides Innaritu (gross) is locked there. In also not sure The Matian is still a lock for best picture, but somehow feel more comfortable about Scott. Regardless, McKay deserves a nod. The whole reason this film is even in the conversation is because of his vision. Yeah, most critics talking about the Big Short are talking about McKay and how it's really his show. I can see McKay getting a directing nod if Big Short keeps building. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Well my predictions are without DOR are Martian, Spotlight, Revenant and Spies. Looks like Spies wont be happening either. So I do need a 4th and 5th slot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 14 minutes ago, Impact said: One thing that might go against Spotlight is if it fails to get any acting nominations-remember films with no acting nominations don't win the Oscar that much. (Not as much as no screenplay nom, which the last 2 films to win without a screenplay nom were Titanic and Sound of Music-aka the biggest films ever at that time) SAG nominated Rachel McAdams, so she is a dark horse for a nomination if Keaton/Ruffalo continue to vote split Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Just now, 4815162342 said: SAG nominated Rachel McAdams, so she is a dark horse for a nomination if Keaton/Ruffalo continue to vote split I really didn't pay attention to the SAG noms that much. Well yeah that is possible then. (One thing that does actually go against it though is the fact that its rare for a film that won LA (as well as NYC) critics to take home picture, not sure the last time either went to the BP winner, I would have to look it up) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Also, is The Martian still conceivably in the Top 5 for Best Picture? Spotlight, Carol, The Revenant and The Big Short seem safely ahead. Mad Max could easily be too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 8 minutes ago, TStechnij said: Also, is The Martian still conceivably in the Top 5 for Best Picture? Spotlight, Carol, The Revenant and The Big Short seem safely ahead. Mad Max could easily be too. My top 5 right now looks like 1.Spotlight 2.The Big Short 3.Carol 4.The Revenant 5.The Martian and Mad Max is in 6th Although I give Miller the director nom over Haynes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 When do you guys want me to start the nomination prediction game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Carol is just as much as a director piece as Mad Max and The Big Short though. I still think Brooklyn is really strong. It's Globes snub probably doesn't mean anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I hope Brooklyn in nominated such a great film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Current: The Big Short Brooklyn Carol The Hateful 8 Inside Out Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian The Revenant Spotlight Alt: Star Wars Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 6 hours ago, TStechnij said: The Big Short could win. Like, I'm close to calling it the frontrunner. Trumbo and Mad Max are looking more likely by the day. Hateful Eight had like a 2% chance. They aren't sending out screeners and it isn't supposed to be that good. A little concerned about Bridge of Spies. Brooklyn is still in the race. The Globes not going for it is super expected and predictable. It doesn't mean much. It is still probably ahead of Room. I think either Carol or The Big Short are going to swoop up and win. There is real passion behind these films unlike Spotlight which just got notice out of needing a front runner. Admittedly haven't seen either, but I have been sensing Carol becoming the true front-runner for quite some time. Everything seems to be working in its favor, and it certainly doesn't hurt that it deals with a subject that 2015 was a watershed year for. Spotlight winning is still something I will have to see to believe. I didn't follow my initial instincts when I first saw Boyhood in the summer that it couldn't actually win, and I obviously should have. That was my first instinct also after seeing Spotlight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 (edited) spotlight will get it guys. im done with the speculation, its as close to never in doubt as any oscars in the past 20 years! if force awakens is good, it can get a token nom. Edited December 13, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Star Wars: The Force Awakens can still sneak in there should it be great, but for the moment, this is the list (8 ballots like last year): The Big Short Carol The Hateful Eight The Martian Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Room Spotlight ALT: Brooklyn (with 10 expansion) The Big Short Brooklyn Carol The Hateful Eight Inside Out The Martian Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Room Spotlight ALT: Star Wars: The Force Awakens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 (edited) 53 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said: Star Wars: The Force Awakens can still sneak in there should it be great, but for the moment, this is the list (8 ballots like last year): The Big Short Carol The Hateful Eight The Martian Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Room Spotlight ALT: Brooklyn (with 10 expansion) The Big Short Brooklyn Carol The Hateful Eight Inside Out The Martian Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Room Spotlight ALT: Star Wars: The Force Awakens agree that sounds about right. spotlight has the win though. rest is just token nom. force awakens token nom, purely for the nostalgia factor. Edited December 13, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
