The Panda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 (edited) 6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: I firmly believe this will be a year of 9. Four populist movies (Inside Out, Mad Max, Martian, Star Wars), two mid-size movies (The Big Short, Revenant), and three indies (Carol, Room, Spotlight). If there's a 10th spot it'll be Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, or SOC, but that's looking increasingly unlikely. This could be great for ratings. It would be the most populist Oscars in years if that happened. Especially if Big Short and Revenant get over 100m, and/or if The Hateful Eight pulls a surprise unlikely nom. Edited December 24, 2015 by The Panda Menace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Both will get in. If it's only one, it'll be The Martian, but I see no reason why IO won't be nominated. IO was only considered before the oscar season kicked in as the populist nominee because it looked like it will be another year full of small movies. But even if it was like that it will be pretty difficult to get the no1 slots since it has its own category to win. Mad Max didn't look that it will be nominated for anything above the line back in summer even with the great reviews it had. Martian and SW were pretty much also counted as "below the line nominations" movies before they opened. All 3 have a much better chance to get in the BP race than IO does. 2 hours ago, TStechnij said: Also, Spotlight keeps winning critics groups but all I hear about is how Carol and Mad Max are winning them. Kind of weird. That's just because people are trying to guess what's option B to Spotlight's option A. By that time last year we knew it was BirdmanVsBoyhood, this year the dust hasn't settled yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm definitely letting IO go. With Bridge of Spies and now Star Wars taking Disney's focus, the race is just too crowded. Screenplay still seems like a lock, though. If that gets us noms for Room and Mad Max, I'll take it, I guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 (edited) So I did some research and every film that became the number #1 box office hit of all time (since 1939) has been nominated for BP. Gone With the Wind (1939) The Sound of Music (1965) (didn't outgross GWTW, not sure if it ever eclipsed it for a while or not though, so I put it) The Exorcist (1973) Jaws (1975) Star Wars (1977) E.T. (1982) Titanic (1997) Avatar (2009) Edited December 24, 2015 by Kalo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 13 minutes ago, Kalo said: So I did some research and every film that became the number #1 box office hit of all time (since 1939) has been nominated for BP. The Sound of Music (1965) (didn't outgross GWTW, not sure if it ever eclipsed it for a while or not though, so I put it) It did outgross it at one point-remember we don't have the exact grosses for all the reissues of GWTW, but I do know it did at one point, also The Exorcist actually was not the biggest ever and apparently The Sting did gross more (which did win BP) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Impact said: It did outgross it at one point-remember we don't have the exact grosses for all the reissues of GWTW, but I do know it did at one point, also The Exorcist actually was not the biggest ever and apparently The Sting did gross more (which did win BP) Possible, The Sting is only listed to have made $156m though, and Exorcist $193m (in its first run) according to BOM. but that could be a multiple gross as well. either way it bolds very well for TFA chances. Edited December 24, 2015 by Kalo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 20 minutes ago, Kalo said: Possible, The Sting is only listed to have made $156m though, and Exorcist $193m (in its first run) according to BOM. but that could be a multiple gross as well. either way it bolds very well for TFA chances. I read somewhere The Sting did make more-remember its likely they have reissues not mentioned either (I remember someone really thought Gone with the Wind made 198M on its first release-where of course it didn't) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 10 minutes ago, Impact said: I read somewhere The Sting did make more-remember its likely they have reissues not mentioned either (I remember someone really thought Gone with the Wind made 198M on its first release-where of course it didn't) Yeah, it's just really hard pinpointing exactly what made when before 1980 because of lack of data or record keeping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Such as I've read some reports that Ben Hur and 10 Commandments both broke the records as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 All of those were nominated (or won) for BP as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yep! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 (edited) Out of the 12 movies that still have a shot at getting nominated (IMO), this is where they rank on Metacritic: 1. Carol: 95 2. Inside Out: 94 3. Spotlight: 93 4. Mad Max: 89 5. Brooklyn: 87 6. Room: 86 7. (tie) The Big Short: 81 Bridge of Spies: 81 Star Wars: 81 10. The Martian: 80 11. The Revenant: 75 12. Straight Outta Compton: 72 RT: 1. (tie) Brooklyn: 98 Inside Out: 98 3. (tie) Mad Max: 97 Room: 97 Spotlight: 97 6. Star Wars: 95 7. Carol: 94 8. The Martian: 93 9. Bridge of Spies: 91 10. Straight Outta Compton: 89 11. The Big Short: 86 12. The Revenant: 83 Edited December 25, 2015 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Compton is one I'm still iffy about-the fact that it basically has no chance at any other major Oscar nom (and the only award I can think of it being nominated for right now is sound mixing) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 it could totally get an original screenplay nod. not the strongest category this year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Well that is one cat that music films tend to never be nominated for, but you never know, stranger things have happened! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 12/23/2015, 9:10:32, Spaghetti-3PO said: All I know is that the PGA noms will be extremely telling this year. As will DGA. So far, these are the only films I can say with confidence are in for BP: Carol Mad Max: Fury Road Spotlight And Ridley Scott sure as hell isn't a frontrunner for Director. Lol, yeah I feel like the "experts" have absolutely no clue how to predict this year at the moment. We are not going to know the true frontrunners until awards season is in full swing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 After seeing The Big Short I think it is the film Spotlight should fear the most. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Update, removed Brooklyn, put in Room. Changed Hateful 8 to alt and put Star Wars in from being a alt. The Big Short Carol Inside Out Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian The Revenant Room Spotlight Star Wars Alt: The Hateful 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 On 11/12/2015 at 0:35 PM, stripe said: Time to make an update after globes, sag and precursors. Surprised with The Big Short resurgence. Joy is out of the race. Keep in mind those are grosses before nominations are announced. I made a bold statement in March: the sum of the BO gross of all nominees this year will let the average gross for each movie to be over 100M before the nominations are even announced Inside Out 357M The Martian 230M Mad Max 153M Creed 130M Spotlight 35M Revenant 30M Carol 30M The Big Short 30M Brooklyn 25M Room 10M This is my top 10, but I only feel confident with the bolded films. Still see Straight Outta Compton, Hateful Eight, SW7, Bridge of Spies, Steve Jobs or Trumbo as contenders. In that order. Last predictions before PGA announces nominees Jan 2nd. Grosses made before Oscar noms announced. I have bolded the ones I am confident with. Star Wars 7 800M Inside Out 357M The Martian 230M Mad Max 153M The Big Short 50M Spotlight 30M Revenant 30M Brooklyn 23M Carol 10M Room 7M Strong contenders: Bridge of Spies, Straight Outta Compton, Trumbo. Mmmaybe they can surprise: Steve Jobs, Creed, Sicario, Hateful eight. Shocking: Danish girl, Beasts of no nation, Youth, Son of Saul. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think there's gonna be nine noms this year. With that in mind, here's how I tier it. Mortal Lock 1. Spotlight The Three Movies That Can Beat It 2. Carol 3. Big Short 4. Mad Max Pretty Confident This Is In 5. Martian 6. Revenant 7. Room So the last two spots come down to a bunch of movies, but the most legit contenders seem like Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, Inside Out, Star Wars, and Straight Outta. Wouldn't be floored if a movie that's popped up a ton gets a bunch of number one votes and stuns everyone (hi, Sicario and maybe Ex Machina). For now, I'm putting in.....Bridge of Spies and Straight Outta Compton. But if IO, SW, or Brooklyn makes it in instead, I won't be surprised in the slightest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
