WrathOfHan Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 movie is getting solid but nothing spectacular reviews. he wont be a winner usually given to a bit better movies than this, i'd say dicaprio in revenant is my pick for his first and overdue win. Eddie's movie got solid but nothing spectacular reviews. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 what about hanks? he's the only big actor in the movie and has a lot of screen time. It's definitely a possibility, but I feel like he'll just miss it. anyone think Idris Elba could get a nom for Beasts of No Nation? or would he be a considered supporting role? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 It's definitely a possibility, but I feel like he'll just miss it. anyone think Idris Elba could get a nom for Beasts of No Nation? or would he be a considered supporting role? He's supporting unless they do category fraud because they think that can get Attah in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 After seeing Black Mass I think Depp should be able to grab a nomination. It's a solid movie, with solid reviews, it's going to line up good box office, and Depp's performance is pretty good (not elite, but he does disappear into the character). It all lines up for a nice comeback story that Oscar voters will eat up. No chance at winning though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 He's supporting unless they do category fraud because they think that can get Attah in. Yeah that would almost be as absurd as nominating Kevin Spacey for best supporting actor in usual suspects or giving Hailee Steinfeld best supporting actress in true grit. or Al pacino best supporting actor for The Godfather... oh wait.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 23, 2015 Author Share Posted September 23, 2015 So...chances of Damon nomination? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 So...chances of Damon nomination? I'd say very high. I think 7 actors can get in: Caine, Damon, DiCaprio, Depp, Fassbender, Hanks, and Redmayne (potentially more if Adam McKay's new movie is a contender). Depp and Fassbender are locks, and if The Revenant is as good as we all expect it to be Leo is in. Many consider Caine and Redmayne to be the last two spots, right now I have Damon instead of Caine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I wouldn't say those are the only seven with a shot. The seven most likely, sure, but I'd say that there's potential for Bale (as you noted), Keaton (if they push him lead, which I'm not sure), Tom Courtenay (vet in a smaller, really well-liked movie- has yielded surprise noms for guys in the past), Abraham Attah (getting pushed apparently), and even Will Smith, if his movie is good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Courtenay has been confirmed supporting. Depp is so not a lock. He is hanging on to that 4th or 5th spot for life. Damon isn't happening. Like not a chance in hell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Courtenay has been confirmed supporting. Depp is so not a lock. He is hanging on to that 4th or 5th spot for life. Damon isn't happening. Like not a chance in hell. Who would you have before Depp? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 (edited) I feel like we should save all of these "no chance" posts for Nomination Day to look back on. Edited September 23, 2015 by 4815162342 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 (edited) I feel like we should save all of these "no chance" posts for Nomination Day to look back on. Feel free. The only way Damon has a way in is if The Martian gets a BP nod. Why would the give The Martian the populous genre BP nod over Mad Max? That have premiered I'd say: Fassbender and Redmayne. I have Caine, Cranston and Rohrig ahead on my personal ballot. I haven't seen Attah, but he is getting better reviews than Depp even though he likely has no shot. That being said, I think Depp is certainly gunning for a nod whether I like it or not. It is just hard to call anyone but Fassbender a lock. No matter how much I disliked Demolition, I wish they'd move that up to December so Gyllenhaal could get in. He is so good in it and probably is my favorite male performance of the year. Edited September 23, 2015 by TStechnij Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 (edited) Why would the give The Martian the populous genre BP nod over Mad Max? Man you got blinders on if you can't even see that possible eventuality. The Martian on paper is easily the more likely "populist" BP nod than Mad Max. And I loved Mad Max. Edited September 24, 2015 by 4815162342 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 (edited) @karl_movies that's not decided yet, but we're hearing at least Jackson is the definite lead. — The Film Stage (@TheFilmStage) September 20, 2015 Edited September 24, 2015 by Jake Gittes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Man you got blinders on if you can't even see that possible eventuality. The Martian on paper is easily the more likely "populist" BP nod than Mad Max. And I loved Mad Max. Id think Inside Out is the most likely Populist BP nod Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I think Inside Out is in. Like top 5. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 (edited) I think Inside Out is in. Like top 5. The current balloting way the Academy use is different than when they voted UP for a BP nom. UP and TS3 are the only animated films that got in under that system which was halted recently. Only Beauty and the Beast was a real top 5 choice. They vote only on 5 films and not 10 and then resulted are tallied as per a pref. ballot. So for IO to get in, it will need to be voted in as a top 5 film and not a top 10 film. Possible? yes esp if other films continue to fall like what happened at TIFF. But a lock? No way with strong films like Revenant, Joy, Jobs, Spotlight, Carol, Hateful etc competing. Sasha stone wrote a recent article explaining the math behind this and that's why she's saying IO and Mad Max will have a hard time getting in. Edited September 24, 2015 by MinaTakla 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 The current balloting way the Academy use is different than when they voted UP for a BP nom. UP and TS3 are the only animated films that got in under that system which was halted recently. Only Beauty and the Beast was a real top 5 choice. They vote only on 5 films and not 10 and then resulted are tallied as per a pref. ballot. So for IO to get in, it will need to be voted in as a top 5 film and not a top 10 film. Possible? yes esp if other films continue to fall like what happened at TIFF. But a lock? No way with strong films like Revenant, Joy, Jobs, Spotlight, Carol, Hateful etc competing. Sasha stone wrote a recent article explaining the math behind this and that's why she's saying IO and Mad Max will have a hard time getting in. Well Stone is a mess... Not as rough as Tapley, but doesn't have a great track record. There will be more passion behind Inside Out than Spotlight and Hateful come Oscar season. You have to realize that Disney will be campaigning for this. Just look at AW: Inside Out has been in their top 6 for months and they are usually pretty good come September. The Martian isn't going to get in because all the reviews seem to call it good not great and it's studio is Fox. They have The Revenant and Joy. Their intentions were never to campaign for awards with this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Well Stone is a mess... Not as rough as Tapley, but doesn't have a great track record. There will be more passion behind Inside Out than Spotlight and Hateful come Oscar season. You have to realize that Disney will be campaigning for this. Just look at AW: Inside Out has been in their top 6 for months and they are usually pretty good come September. The Martian isn't going to get in because all the reviews seem to call it good not great and it's studio is Fox. They have The Revenant and Joy. Their intentions were never to campaign for awards with this. True, I think Io has a chance but far from a lock and that's because of the Academy's incredible bias against animated films in BP.. It will need passion - more passion actually than Up or Toy Story 3 - for it to get in. And it will need the Academy to think a bit outside the box for this and Mad Max too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 True, I think Io has a chance but far from a lock and that's because of the Academy's incredible bias against animated films in BP.. It will need passion - more passion actually than Up or Toy Story 3 - for it to get in. And it will need the Academy to think a bit outside the box for this and Mad Max too. The reason I think Max has a chance is because Youth and Brookltn are both kind of faltering so it may be FSL's first push. And, it should get a ton of below the line noms and those are all BP voters. The actors night even go for it too because of Theron and Hardy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
