Listen to ShawnMR on Movie Moan's Summer 2015 Box Office Predictions Spectacular

[Avatree]

Unlike you, I think 500m+ is "an absolute killing".

Nah. That's like pocket change to me.

[Dementeleus]

Of course 500M is good $$$$$ but disappointing for the potential this has to do even more.. Devin says screenings for critics begin this week.. You know if that's true or not Tele???

 

I don't know anything more than you guys do, but I've read the same thing from other online articles so I assume it's accurate. There's no real reason to make up something like that either.

[BadAtGender]

Maybe OS but higher dollar value DOM?

 

AotC fell, what? 125m from TPM? That's a lower dollar amount than what they're projecting AoU to fall from Avengers.

 

However, it's also something like a 30% drop, when the drops they're projecting for AoU are in the 20-23% range.

 

That's all that I was saying. Nothing about currency variation.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I really can't see AoU falling below 500m. I don't think it's gonna do as much as TA though. The Jurassic World predictions are the only ones (with the exception of the 250m one) where I'm confused about their predictions. I think it'll do 200m minimum.

[mahnamahna]

AotC fell, what? 125m from TPM? That's a lower dollar amount than what they're projecting AoU to fall from Avengers.

 

However, it's also something like a 30% drop, when the drops they're projecting for AoU are in the 20-23% range.

 

That's all that I was saying. Nothing about currency variation.

Well, Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones were both huge letdowns. At the very least, Avengers 1 was a massive WOM crowdpleaser. I don't see Ultron dropping over $100 million domestically unless the film is horrible. 

 

I see $215-230 million OW, with a $560-640 million DOM total. 

 

Under $500 million would require Avengers 2 being just plain terrible. Maybe in 2014, Avengers 2 would have only done $475 million, but 2015 has shown it's going to rebound from last year in a big way so far (Sniper, SpongeBob 2/Kingsman/50 Shades, Home, Cinderella (relative to Peabody and Muppets during last March), Furious 7, etc) 

Edited April 8, 2015 by mahnamahna

[Lordmandeep]

The issue with the AOU projection is that they are treating AOU like it was an time hit like Star Wars or Raiders or Jurassic Park or TPM.

 

When in reality it was as big as Spiderman 1 in terms of ticket sales.

 

Therefore the idea that an all time hit sequel must decline by 20-30%, no longer holds any value. 

 

 

It should be compared to recent major sequels.

 

TA did not make an impossibile amount of money compared to the current market, it just vastly overperformed.

 

Films are quite capable of similar grosses (500+) but it is that similar appealing films have not released hence.

[Deep Wang]

When in reality it was as big as Spiderman 1 in terms of ticket sales.

 

And what happened to Spider-Man 2?

[Lordmandeep]

And what happened to Spider-Man 2?

 

It made 92% of Spider Man 1 gross which would mean 573 million, which be a great result.

 

 

That was my point, I see a result near  Spider Man 2 then AOTC or ESB or Temple of Doom. 

[Goffe]

AotC fell, what? 125m from TPM? That's a lower dollar amount than what they're projecting AoU to fall from Avengers.

 

However, it's also something like a 30% drop, when the drops they're projecting for AoU are in the 20-23% range.

 

That's all that I was saying. Nothing about currency variation.

well, if you go by adjusted numbers, AOTC dropped 39% from TPM.

[Neo]

well, if you go by adjusted numbers, AOTC dropped 39% from TPM.

Why adjusted? Would be 39% without adjusting? No?

[The Futurist]

So San Andreas, Pixels and Tomorrowland are the only " original" big budget films of the summer ?

[Neo]

So San Andreas, Pixels and Tomorrowland are the only " original" big budget films of the summer ?

Some would argue Tomorrowland is not original.

[The Futurist]

Some would argue Tomorrowland is not original.

That s why I wrote "original".

San Andreas is another disaster porn movie.

The only original premise of the summer is Pixels.

Only talking about big budget films of ourse.

[Dementeleus]

That s why I wrote "original".

San Andreas is another disaster porn movie.

The only original premise of the summer is Pixels.

Only talking about big budget films of ourse.

 

If you wanted to, you could argue PIXELS isn't original for two reasons: it's based on a short film, and it's also based on pre-existing video games.

[CoolioD1]

If you wanted to, you could argue PIXELS isn't original for two reasons: it's based on a short film, and it's also based on pre-existing video games.

it's also the exaaact premise of a futurama episode.

[Mango]

Inside Out is original

[The Futurist]

Forgot animation.

Pixels will still be seen as original by GA ( except for Futurama fans) no awareness of the premise before the movie.

Also you could arge that Pixels is kinda of a reverse Tron, Wreck it Ralph.

Edited April 8, 2015 by The Futurist

[water]

san andreas will break out

 

[Neo]

If you wanted to, you could argue PIXELS isn't original for two reasons: it's based on a short film, and it's also based on pre-existing video games.

And San Andreas being a disaster movie doesn't make it unoriginal. Thats like saying all sub genres are unoriginal.

[Dementeleus]

And San Andreas being a disaster movie doesn't make it unoriginal. Thats like saying all sub genres are unoriginal.

 

True. I think being based on a short film is more of a reason. The original creator gets a shared "Story By" credit, but I don't think they're going to officially credit the short aside from that. But Futurist is right, no one will know or care.