druv10 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah, but those are usually Pixar movies. At least that's what we've always had. They did with TA1. It was short of 3 multiplier but with the expansion on LD weekend it easily went past that mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 (edited) I get what you're saying, baumer, but I don't think that "it's still a lot money" argument flies, because you could apply that to almost anything. Let's say it had made "only" 150m, that's still a shitload of money, but wouldn't you call it disappointing? I mean, this is a sequel to The Avengers we're talking about, not Ex Machina. So where would you draw the line? For me, below 190m would be somewhat disappointing. And again, disappointing does not equal bad. It made 190 million dollars. Think about that for a second. You people, yes, I'm lumping all of you nut jobs together into one big silly group, are the one's who need to step back. I'm far from the best or even close to being in the upper echelon of box office prognosticators, but I knew...ABSOLUTELY KNEW, this would open less and finish with less than the last one. The last one was a novelty. It brought the casual fan in and it was a perfect storm of anticipation, brains, brawn and brilliance. With the exception of Freddy vs Jason, there has never been a real mainstream Hollywood film that did what Marvel did. So naturally it reached its zenith. Expecting this one to hit the same numbers was just a miscalculation on everyone's part. Professionals don't understand the business side of things in relation to box office potential any better than I do so all of them expecting this to open to 220 mill were flat out wrong. This was an easy call imo. All you had to do was to look at the OW, the second weekend fall and the multiplier and you should have been able to figure out that there was nowhere to go but down for the sequel. It's you guys who need to give your head a shake for putting such lofty and ridiculously unreal expectations on a sequel to a film that smashed records. History is littered with sequels to record breaking films, falling from the first ones. All you had to do is do a little research but instead you went with your heart instead of your brain. Jaws Jaws 2 Star Wars Empire Porky's Porky's 2 Raiders Temple Spiderman 1 Spiderman 2 Jurassic Park JP2 Godfather Godfather 2 Rocky Rocky 2 Batman Batman Returns TDK TDKR And the list goes on. Like I said, easy call. Edited May 4, 2015 by baumer 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Between Tomorrowland, Inside Out, and Ant-Man they have three movies to attach TA2 for drive-in "boost." At this point, it need a good solid hold next weekend(-57% or less) or all of this talk will be moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah, but those are usually Pixar movies. At least that's what we've always had. Looks like TA1 received expansion for Labor Day weekend. Helped it add another $5m at the very end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 CJohn doesn't instigate, he jinxes stuff. Ed is a master at instigation though. He thought he's being subtle at it too. Which is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Disney's revised opening weekend estimate for AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON is $191.3M. #Avengers #AgeOfUltron — BoxOffice (@BoxOffice) May 4, 2015 Revised opening wknd estimate for #AvengersAgeOfUltron goes up to $191.3M. SUN sales stronger than studio expected. — Gitesh Pandya (@giteshpandya) May 4, 2015 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 191? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 So I'll give it a 2.6 multiplier and say it ends with 500.01 mill. Disney will fudge it somehow just like every studio fudges their films. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KATCH-2D2 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Wow... That's funny. Am I the only one who finds this to be such a pointless app? I mean, have people these days become so stupid they need an app to tell them how old do they look? Since when have human's eyes become irrelevant? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 It made 190 million dollars. Think about that for a second. You people, yes, I'm lumping all of you nut jobs together into one big silly group, are the one's who need to step back. I'm far from the best or even close to being in the upper echelon of box office prognosticators, but I knew...ABSOLUTELY KNEW, this would open less and finish with less than the last one. The last one was a novelty. It brought the casual fan in and it was a perfect storm of anticipation, brains, brawn and brilliance. With the exception of Freddy vs Jason, there has never been a real mainstream Hollywood film that did what Marvel did. So naturally it reached its zenith. Expecting this one to hit the same numbers was just a miscalculation on everyone's part. Professionals don't understand the business side of things in relation to box office potential any better than I do so all of them expecting this to open to 220 mill were flat out wrong. This was an easy call imo. All you had to do was to look at the OW, the second weekend fall and the multiplier and you should have been able to figure out that there was nowhere to go but down for the sequel. It's you guys who need to give your head a shake for putting such lofty and ridiculously unreal expectations on a sequel to a film that smashed records. History is littered with sequels to record breaking films, falling from the first ones. All you had to do is do a little research but instead you went with your heart instead of your brain. To be fair, I think the vast majority here expected it to come up well short of 623 total. But history is also littered with plenty of sequels to record-breaking movies that actually opened bigger even though they came up short on the totals. Numerous Star Wars sequels, Indiana Jones 2/3, Batman Returns/Forever, Jurassic Park 2, Spider-Man 2/3, , The Dark Knight Rises (even with the shooting it still opened bigger than TDK), etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 To be fair, I think the vast majority here expected it to come up well short of 623 total. But history is also littered with plenty of sequels to record-breaking movies that actually opened bigger even though they came up short on the totals. Numerous Star Wars sequels, Indiana Jones 2/3, Batman Returns/Forever, Jurassic Park 2, Spider-Man 2/3, , The Dark Knight Rises (even with the shooting it still opened bigger than TDK), etc. Which of those were record breaking films? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 191? That's better than 187 M. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 They did with TA1. It was short of 3 multiplier but with the expansion on LD weekend it easily went past that mark. Hmmm, I don't remember that at all. Oh well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 So what's the over/under for next weekend? 90M? 85M? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Which of those were record breaking films? Do what? Every one of those that I mentioned was a sequel to something that broke records. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 So what's the over/under for next weekend? 90M? 85M? I think it falls north of 55% and less than 60...I'm going with 58%. so about 80 mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KATCH-2D2 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Still an estimate? Shouldn't they come up with the actual already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Should still get best 2nd weekend next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 So Sunday was around $49.6m. Great number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harpospoke Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 It made 190 million dollars. Think about that for a second. You people, yes, I'm lumping all of you nut jobs together into one big silly group, are the one's who need to step back. I'm far from the best or even close to being in the upper echelon of box office prognosticators, but I knew...ABSOLUTELY KNEW, this would open less and finish with less than the last one. The last one was a novelty. It brought the casual fan in and it was a perfect storm of anticipation, brains, brawn and brilliance. With the exception of Freddy vs Jason, there has never been a real mainstream Hollywood film that did what Marvel did. So naturally it reached its zenith. Expecting this one to hit the same numbers was just a miscalculation on everyone's part. Professionals don't understand the business side of things in relation to box office potential any better than I do so all of them expecting this to open to 220 mill were flat out wrong. This was an easy call imo. All you had to do was to look at the OW, the second weekend fall and the multiplier and you should have been able to figure out that there was nowhere to go but down for the sequel. It's you guys who need to give your head a shake for putting such lofty and ridiculously unreal expectations on a sequel to a film that smashed records. History is littered with sequels to record breaking films, falling from the first ones. All you had to do is do a little research but instead you went with your heart instead of your brain. Like I said, easy call. Good post. I'm not going to say it was an easy call for me. Others almost talked me into it, but I held firm. The experts don't understand Avengers movies obviously. They are applying metrics to them which don't apply. Like you said, the novelty of the first ever team up was underestimated with TA and the absence of that novelty was underestimated this time. We even knew 3D percentage would be lower....we knew that in advance yet most ignored it. I mean....TA destroyed the OW record. I don't think we get how hard it is to match that....much less exceed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
