POTUS 2020 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 (edited) If Disney expected this to make more than the first, then they should fire those people who sent out that forecast. I seriously doubt they did think that. Avengers was the zeitgeist film. You can compare it to JAWS. When Richard Zanuck was doing behind the scenes stuff for the JAWS 2 DVD, he said that when they made the sequel they had hoped to do less than half of the original. Producers and executives are not as dumb as make them out to be. There was no chance that AOU was going to do more than Avengers and this is coming from one of the avergage predictors at this site. But all the signs were there of a fall. Just because the loonies didn't see it doesn't mean the rest of the business world did. For Dom? Sure no expectations on beating 600m. But WW? With expanding OS and china exploding, more was in their sites. We have IM Thor CA all grow and TA explode. Now perhaps a contraction, albeit small if China doesnt do 300m+, is ominous. And its not just the powers that be at Disney. The analysts dictate the stock price based on future potential with their recomendations. If they dont like it then the price falls, and then the execs are not going to be happy and ask why it didnt it do better. Bottom line, the topic was are they happy or not? Nope. Dis had earnings on Tues and the stock popped because they beat Q1 ending Mar 31 but has since fallen 3%, a bad sign as they are selling into the pop based on future prospects. Analyst are looking for MU and SW to bring in the bacon. The selloff, I predict will continue this week after this weekends BO gets reported, and The exec with 1,000,000 options will be upset that his net worth has dropped by a few million, Read below. http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2015/05/06/walt-disney-co-earnings-good-short-term-trade-but-dont-fall-in-love-with-it-dis/ The good news: Disney saw its revenues jump 7% and EPS excluding non-recurring items jump by 11%, and this despite the lack of a major blockbuster movie this quarter. Next quarter, Disney should get a nice jolt from the new Avengers movie, which will probably end up being one of the highest grossing movies of all time. Merchandising–particularly for Frozen toys and accessories–did well, up about 10%, That should do well next quarter as well due to Star Wars and Avengers toy sales. Bottom line: Disney is a short-term buy based on the expected success of the Avengers and Star Wars movies, but don’t fall in love with it. Its core ESPN franchise is undergoing a major disruption in its business model, and this is not reflected in Disney’s lofty share price. BTW. Avengers was no Jaws. Avatar was. Avengers was maybe Close Encounters Edited May 10, 2015 by M F Lawrence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 For Dom? Sure no expectations on beating 600m. But WW? With expanding OS and china exploding, more was in their sites. We have IM Thor CA all grow and TA explode. Now perhaps a contraction, albeit small if China doesnt do 300m+, is ominous. And its not just the powers that be at Disney. The analysts dictate the stock price based on future potential with their recomendations. If they dont like it then the price falls, and then the execs are not going to be happy and ask why it didnt it do better. Bottom line, the topic was are they happy or not? Nope. Dis had earnings on Tues and the stock popped because they beat Q1 ending Mar 31 but has since fallen 3%, a bad sign as they are selling into the pop based on future prospects. Analyst are looking for MU and SW to bring in the bacon. The selloff, I predict will continue, I predict, as the lower BO numbers get continue to get reported. Read below. http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2015/05/06/walt-disney-co-earnings-good-short-term-trade-but-dont-fall-in-love-with-it-dis/ The good news: Disney saw its revenues jump 7% and EPS excluding non-recurring items jump by 11%, and this despite the lack of a major blockbuster movie this quarter. Next quarter, Disney should get a nice jolt from the new Avengers movie, which will probably end up being one of the highest grossing movies of all time. Merchandising–particularly for Frozen toys and accessories–did well, up about 10%, That should do well next quarter as well due to Star Wars and Avengers toy sales. Bottom line: Disney is a short-term buy based on the expected success of the Avengers and Star Wars movies, but don’t fall in love with it. Its core ESPN franchise is undergoing a major disruption in its business model, and this is not reflected in Disney’s lofty share price. BTW. Avengers was no Jaws. Avatar was. Avengers was maybe Close Encounters False TA sold near 70 million tickets. More like Spider Man 1 or ID4 level hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 450m total means attendance-wise, AOU is pretty much as big as TF2 no? TF2 would actual say be bigger than AOU and TDKR attendance wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 I just said take Jaws as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 TF2 would actual say be bigger than AOU and TDKR attendance wise 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Disney has so much IP while I'm sure they wanted more in the end it really won't make a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 For Dom? Sure no expectations on beating 600m. But WW? With expanding OS and china exploding, more was in their sites. We have IM Thor CA all grow and TA explode. Now perhaps a contraction, albeit small if China doesnt do 300m+, is ominous. And its not just the powers that be at Disney. The analysts dictate the stock price based on future potential with their recomendations. If they dont like it then the price falls, and then the execs are not going to be happy and ask why it didnt it do better. Bottom line, the topic was are they happy or not? Nope. Dis had earnings on Tues and the stock popped because they beat Q1 ending Mar 31 but has since fallen 3%, a bad sign as they are selling into the pop based on future prospects. Analyst are looking for MU and SW to bring in the bacon. The selloff, I predict will continue this week after this weekends BO gets reported, and The exec with 1,000,000 options will be upset that his net worth has dropped by a few million, Read below. http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2015/05/06/walt-disney-co-earnings-good-short-term-trade-but-dont-fall-in-love-with-it-dis/ The good news: Disney saw its revenues jump 7% and EPS excluding non-recurring items jump by 11%, and this despite the lack of a major blockbuster movie this quarter. Next quarter, Disney should get a nice jolt from the new Avengers movie, which will probably end up being one of the highest grossing movies of all time. Merchandising–particularly for Frozen toys and accessories–did well, up about 10%, That should do well next quarter as well due to Star Wars and Avengers toy sales. Bottom line: Disney is a short-term buy based on the expected success of the Avengers and Star Wars movies, but don’t fall in love with it. Its core ESPN franchise is undergoing a major disruption in its business model, and this is not reflected in Disney’s lofty share price. BTW. Avengers was no Jaws. Avatar was. Avengers was maybe Close Encounters This guy doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about. Disney shares having dropped because A2 disappointed, it's called buying the hype and selling the news. When the original Hunger Games opened to 150m, liknsgate saw a small drop that week lol. The film drops in the US but so what, it's more than making up for the with overseas grosses and disney has a massive pipeline if mega earning movies on the way and has proven over the last few years that they don't need to rely on marvel to set the box office on fire, not to mention the box office is a small lart of disney. The shares are at the highest they've ever been and will likely see small drops as of now but in the long run their shares will climb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 BTW 34.2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Biggest thing people forget is they adjust TDKR with normal 2D prices but forget what a massive boost it got from IMAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Biggest thing people forget is they adjust TDKR with normal 2D prices but forget what a massive boost it got from IMAX. TF2 also had a big IMAX boost as it had IMAX footage in it. Broke the IMAX OW record at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KATCH-2D2 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 I am also assuming Disney didn't expect 'only' 450 M from this. But who cares since this is still making tons of money. I think BVS could be really big but after that, we need to have our predictions for the sequels and spin offs in check. AOU has taught us a very good lesson. I am not saying though that all these sequels are bound to decrease. I'm sure there'll be surprises along the way. Agree. They didn't expect TA to make 600m+ DOM but it over-performed so of course who wouldn't hope for the lighting to strike twice with it's sequel? However, they've also been in business too long to not realise that there's no such thing as a sure thing in business and there's a chance that the sequel could decrease. After all, they must have known AOU wasn't at the same quality as TA and lowered their expectation even before we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 Agree. They didn't expect TA to make 600m+ DOM but it over-performed so of course who wouldn't hope for the lighting to strike twice with it's sequel? However, they've also been in business too long to not realise that there's no such thing as a sure thing in business and there's a chance that the sequel could decrease. After all, they must have known AOU wasn't at the same quality as TA and lowered their expectation even before we did. The question is, how low was low. 450 M? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deathlife Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 (edited) All of this is plain damage control and stands in the border of rewriting history. It was very normal to expect this to make similar numbers to the first one, considering how TA made the Marvel properties to explode BO wise, and that's why most of predictions here did that. You coud make a very good argument about this not reaching the DOM total of the first one, but all logic says at the very least it should have improved the opening numbers, considering the large portion of the GA who have turned fans of the Marvel Studios properties since 2012. The Avengers was not a 'Jaws' type of hit. The MCU puts a lot of effort in linking every entry in a way that the public is pushed to watch all films as if they were part of a single story. Most of us predicted it will open higher but ultimately make less than the first one. At least I did. There's no history being re-written here when most of us knew it would make less than the first. The real surprise is how much less it might make. Edited May 10, 2015 by Deathlife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Imo it shows us the domestic market in terms of admissions is not very capable as before to produce box office records that easily as we think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 so 79 million weekend and 59% drop I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deathlife Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 (edited) Imo it shows us the domestic market in terms of admissions is not very capable as before to produce box office records that easily as we think. And it's also not easy to predict a break out particularly domestically. Most people on here never predicted the Avengers breaking out the way it did. God knows I didn't. Edited May 10, 2015 by Deathlife 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 (edited) i think people forget many times on this forum. When it comes all films apart from uber blockbuster, overwhelming majority see the film after theaters on home media or for free online. Most people will be seeing Tomorrowland or Mad Max after theaters. Edited May 10, 2015 by Lordmandeep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 TF2 also had a big IMAX boost as it had IMAX footage in it. Broke the IMAX OW record at that point. However the adjusted gross on BOM make no sense. From 2010 to now, films went up %2 total. However films from 2012 to 2015 went up 5% total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 This guy doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about. Disney shares having dropped because A2 disappointed, it's called buying the hype and selling the news. When the original Hunger Games opened to 150m, liknsgate saw a small drop that week lol. The film drops in the US but so what, it's more than making up for the with overseas grosses and disney has a massive pipeline if mega earning movies on the way and has proven over the last few years that they don't need to rely on marvel to set the box office on fire, not to mention the box office is a small lart of disney. The shares are at the highest they've ever been and will likely see small drops as of now but in the long run their shares will climb. Much of your statement just shows how fucking clueless you are. I'd explain it to you but it would be a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frozen Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 BO: HOT PURSUIT opened with an estimated $13.3M this weekend. #HotPursuit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
