WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

[Wrath]

But that mainly boils down to two scenes within a few min of each other.

 

 

 

Those scenes were hilarious at the time, but while not on that level, they don't amount to much more than this scene that is now more reviled than heralded:

 

 

They were more gimmick than classic, unlike a scene like this:

 

 

 

 

Which still works to this day because it was earlier in the film and more integral to the setup of the mythos.

 

And just because a film is more "crowd pleasing" at the time, it doesn't make it a superior film. The Phantom Menace was "crowd pleasing" at the time because at the time it was released it was a simply the first new Star Wars film in 16 years and most gave it an initial pass for that reason alone(The Darth Maul fight scene at the end also covered up A LOT). It drew more attendance than both ESB and ROTJ. It adjusts higher than TA and had great legs. Every screening I went to ended with applause. It's only in hindsight that we have ...well, vilified it.

 

TA is a far superior film to TPM, but just because it was a crowd pleaser it doesn't make it better than its sequel by default.

 

The Yoda-Dooku fight scene is reviled today?  By who?  I still think its awesome.  But you know what makes it awesome?  The fight itself I agree is mostly a gimmick around Yoda *finally* doing something other than hobble around and mangle his syntax.  What makes the fight awesome is that the very instant its over, Yoda puts away his light saber, picks up his cane, and slowly hobbles away as though everyone didn't just watch him jump around like an Olympic gymnast.

[Harpospoke]

Okay, let's wait a few years after IW2, and then re-release AoU.  It's gonna add some more money.  Then wait another 10 years.  Re-release.  It's gonna make some more.  Therefore, it's an unfair estimate.  You have to compare their original runs.

You didn't make a case why demand for a movie shouldn't count.    If a movie is worth releasing again and people pay to see it, that's a compliment to the movie and illustrates demand even more than the original run.    You don't have any big ad campaigns to artificially boost the BO with a re-release.   

 

I just saw Alien in a theater full of people a few weeks ago.    We were all there because of the movie.   That money should absolutely count in Alien's total.   If can draw a crowd bigger than Weekend at Bernie's then it deserves a bigger total.

 

lol at people getting offended by AOU being compared with other films.

 

Comparing TDKR and AOU worldwide is just wrong primarily because AOU is in 3D and TDKR wasn't. They should not be even compared domestically for the same reason. If AOU finishes with 450 M, it will only mean one thing: fewer tickets sold than TDKR.

 

People are comparing F7 and AOU worldwide because both (though F7 wasn't in 3D in some markets) are in 3D. Yes, AOU is bigger than F7 domestically. That was expected, right? What was not expected is F7 beating AOU worldwide.

Yet there will be Nolan fans who desperately hope AoU doesn't reach 450. ...so it obviously matters to them.   That's because nothing on that list is about tickets sold.   TDKR is above many movies which sold more tickets.

 

Naturally those with an agenda will try to keep everything domestic with TDKR v AoU and keep everything WW with FF7 v AoU.   I'm not shocked there.

 

He didn't destroy anything; just a bunch of random sarcastic lines.

 

What if AoU was a better movie?  With no stupid fight that Saturday?  Can you or anyone predict that?  No.

 

That's why it's a disappointment.  Because a lot of fans expect it to be the best movie in years, and maybe it was for some, but not for the majority.  At least, it wasn't as well-received as Avengers 1, and hence the drop in box office.

Problem with this theory is OW.    You're ignoring the real reasons while trying to pin everything on some nebulous unprovable "quality" claim.

[Harpospoke]

Why are we even comparing movies from the 70's and 80's to movies today?

 

This is why adjusted numbers don't work, especially for much older movies.  GWTW made $1.6B DOM; I'm pretty sure that's impossible to replicate today.

 

You're correct that sequels back then hardly ever increased from the first.  They were never as popular back then as they are today.  Nowadays, maybe half the time they increase from the first.  If AoU stopped at $550M, it wouldn't be too bad, but stopping at $450M is disappointing.  Still a money maker, but still much lower than expected.

Funny to watch this at work.

 

You openly admit the predictions were wrong (as they usually are with Marvel movies lately).   Yet still you reject any attempt to bring a different prediction mechanism into the equations.   You still want to cling to the same methods which resulted in the flawed predictions.

 

It makes it appear you are trying to resist any idea that this was a logical drop in an attempt to claim it is happening because of "quality"?    Again...OW kills that one.    So does all the sequels like Spider-Man 2 which many consider better than the preceding movies.

[Harpospoke]

It's true. It's a good number, a normal drop. What people are describing as disappointing is the overall run and the would be final total. We can celebrate its OW and second weekend number as much as we want but at the end of the day, the possibility of this finishing with 450 M isn't really exciting relative to expectations. The run has become boring to be honest.

A testament to the amazing run of TA that something this massive could be seen as "boring".

 

The AOU fanboys using "it's still the second highest opening, weekend" blah blah blah. It was ALWAYS going to be that way, anything short of that would've been a major fail. People need to separate the macro from micro here. Disney was ALWAYS going to make a lot off this film, again who cares?

The fact that your prediction was flawed doesn't mean the 2nd biggest OW and 2nd weekend are flawed.   It's not all about you.  

[kayumanggi]

Yet there will be Nolan fans who desperately hope AoU doesn't reach 450. ...so it obviously matters to them.   That's because nothing on that list is about tickets sold.   TDKR is above many movies which sold more tickets.

 

Naturally those with an agenda will try to keep everything domestic with TDKR v AoU and keep everything WW with FF7 v AoU.   I'm not shocked there.

 

 

Desperately hope? How?

 

Is it fair to compare the worldwide grosses of two films where one was in 3D and the other was not? F7 and AOU are both in 3D so the comparison is fine.

 

Please don't get it wrong. People are comparing the domestic takes because AOU could end up so close to TDKR's number. Even Baumer asked a question about this in his game. TDKR is being used as a reference here.

[kayumanggi]

A testament to the amazing run of TA that something this massive could be seen as "boring".

 

I wonder, what did you expect for AOU? 450 M?

[water]

Why are we even comparing movies from the 70's and 80's to movies today?

 

This is why adjusted numbers don't work, especially for much older movies.  GWTW made $1.6B DOM; I'm pretty sure that's impossible to replicate today.

 

i don't think that's true. how much would avatar have made if it had 99% on rt instead of like 83 or 87 or whatever it has. there are far too many movies that have made huge dom bucks with varying levels of reception from crap to good that we don't know how high they could have gone with universal praise

[cookie]

i don't think that's true. how much would avatar have made if it had 99% on rt instead of like 83 or 87 or whatever it has.

 

Barely a difference considering Avatar's out-of-this-world WOM was already disproportional to it's critical score.

[Darth Homer]

You honestly believe there was no memorable scenes in either POTC or TF? Wow delusional much?

That's exactly what I'm saying. POTC was an overlong, run of the mill pirate movie elevated by Depp's inspired performance. TF was . . . well, it had very nice special effects, I'll say that for it. Neither of them had any moments that made me want to stand up and cheer like the shark being blown up in Jaws, Han coming in to save Luke at the end of ANH or the circling shot of the heroes assembled in TA.

Edited July 15, 2015 by Darth Homer

[Rthmessiah]

Just a reminder, Disney gets about 45-50% of the share from DOM, 40-45% of the share from OS but 20-25% of the share from China.

 

Assuming 450M DOM, 300M and 750M OS, that means they get between 562.5M and 637.5M.

 

That's really not that much above the budget which is likely underestimated. Far from the amount the 'it made 1.5M WW' would let you expect.

 

 

not that much more ? for real ?

production budget is listed as 250 mil. even if advertising and all other expenses are 100-150mil... they will get at least 150-200 mil. and that's not counting DVD+Blu-ray, TV rights, etc... clearly another 200-300 mil, and of course "TOYS"....

 

so again ? not that much above budget ?

 couple quick things

Adpub/prints be higher, also  films  can get a lot money back from product placement & marketing tie-ins, for example Smurfs2 had  basically its whole Prod budget payed for from Product placement before film opened.

 

Rental payments to studios/distributors calculated from BO, its calculated from Net BO not GBO , so basically BO without taxes(can be 0% in some case to 20+%). so Tax (if any) comes off then you calculate what needs to be payed.

Edited May 12, 2015 by RthWillSeeYouNow

[Jandrew]

But that mainly boils down to two scenes within a few min of each other.

 

 

Yeah these scenes were riotus in the theater, but watching Avengers on bluray or FX, and its painfully silent from me. Doesnt hold up. Now that IM gif you posted, that one holds up, it feels more natural.

Thats one of the problems with Avengers. There was so much obvious humor crammed in, yet it worked with the crowd, but when you watch it by yourself it falls flat, creating alot of awkward and poor tonal moments. To me subtle humor, like in Iron Man, holds up the best.

[Ruthie]

Thread title

[Harpospoke]

Desperately hope? How?

 

Is it fair to compare the worldwide grosses of two films where one was in 3D and the other was not? F7 and AOU are both in 3D so the comparison is fine.

 

Please don't get it wrong. People are comparing the domestic takes because AOU could end up so close to TDKR's number. Even Baumer asked a question about this in his game. TDKR is being used as a reference here.

I'm assuming some sort of strong emotion from Nolan fans....they bring it up a LOT.    If, as you claim, it should not be compared, you need to somehow convince them of that.

 

The "number of tickets" isn't really a thing unless those fans also want to use it to knock TDKR a lot further down the list.    If you like TDKR being in the #7 spot....well you are going to have to stop talking about ticket sales.

 

I wonder, what did you expect for AOU? 450 M?

I did predict under the OW and Dom, but I got it wrong like everyone else does for all Avengers movies.

 

We basically don't know how to predict them.   Our failure doesn't make the 2nd biggest OW and 2nd weekend less impressive though.   It just means we don't know as much as we sometimes like to think.