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Monthly/Quarterly/Yearly Box Office Watch

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On 7/31/2016 at 7:57 PM, No Prisoners said:

I've got July down a bit over 1b. @Olive should have a precise number in a few days.

August was 3.2b last year, that could be easily beat. 2 releases next weekend may have 100m+ OD's. 

I did expect August this year will be higher than July last year but since 2 local movies moved to another month, I only hope it can do more than July this year. 

 

Edit : I was thinking July bo 4.5B last year and 3.5B this year Lol. It was 1B less than the actual number. So August won't beat July. 

Edited by Lihongkim
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On ‎7‎/‎31‎/‎2016 at 4:39 PM, Lihongkim said:

I did expect August this year will be higher than July last year but since 2 local movies moved to another month, I only hope it can do more than July this year. 

 

Edit : I was thinking July bo 4.5B last year and 3.5B this year Lol. It was 1B less than the actual number. So August won't beat July. 

August is pacing to 3.8-4B up 20-25%.  up 15-20% in dollars.

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6 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

August is pacing to 3.8-4B up 20-25%.  up 15-20% in dollars.

If 3 local movies ( Sword Master, A Chinese Odyssey 3, Luc Besson's The Warriors Gate ) didn't move out, August probably can top July. I'm not so sure that those 3 movies will do well though. 

 

Edit : July may be the last down month. How Oct and Dec bo last year? 

Edited by Lihongkim
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1 hour ago, Lihongkim said:

If 3 local movies ( Sword Master, A Chinese Odyssey 3, Luc Besson's The Warriors Gate ) didn't move out, August probably can top July. I'm not so sure that those 3 movies will do well though. 

 

Edit : July may be the last down month. How Oct and Dec bo last year? 

The three releases today were small. 

Bourne and ice age are on Tuesday and not looking big. Next Friday is light and that's it for the month.

Oct mite be hard to beat with GML having a 1.4b run and half of LiHKs run

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7 hours ago, Gabriel Sales said:

Sorry, what is the forecast for the growth or decline in China's box office this year?

I'm sure the worldwide will fall in almost all countries on the blockbusters this year are well below those of last year.

Its up 13.4% in yuan thru August, Just 7.2% in dollars.  The year should be within a few percent.

  2013 2014   2015     2016
Jan 1650 1920 +16.4% 2590 +34.9% 3849 +48.6%
Feb 2120 3240 +52.8% 4050 +25.0% 6870 +69.6%
Mar 1390 1620 +16.5% 2910 +79.6% 3750 +28.9%
Apr 1790 1770 -1.1% 4090 +131.1% 3000 -26.7%
May 2130 2220 +4.2% 3180 +43.2% 3001 -5.6%
Jun 1820 2720 +49.5% 3286 +20.8% 3800 +15.6%
Jul 1790 3610 +101.7% 5500 +52.4% 4450 -19.1%
Aug 2320 2550 +9.9% 3200 +25.5% 3950 +23.4%
Sep 1300 1800 +38.5% 3200 +77.8%    
Oct 1600 2760 +72.5% 4200 +52.2%    
Nov 1560 2300 +47.4% 2750 +19.6%    
Dec 2200 2460 +11.8% 4000 +62.6%    
YTD 19,470 28,970 +48.8% 42,956 +48.3%    
($M)   $4,665   $6,829      
               
      Thru- 28,806 Thru 32,670 +13.4%
      Aug 2015 $4,624 Aug 2016 $4,958 +7.2%

 

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On Thursday, August 25, 2016 at 5:20 AM, jiangsen said:

20%-25% growth

 

On Sunday, July 31, 2016 at 4:39 PM, Lihongkim said:

I did expect August this year will be higher than July last year but since 2 local movies moved to another month, I only hope it can do more than July this year. 

 

Edit : I was thinking July bo 4.5B last year and 3.5B this year Lol. It was 1B less than the actual number. So August won't beat July. 

I had the wrong number for last August.  It was 3.62B. So this year was up 12% or just 7% in dollars.

http://variety.com/2016/film/box-office/china-box-office-returns-to-growth-in-august-1201849922/

 

September off to slow start and nothing big opening next weekend. Last year had Minions, T5 and MI5 make close to 1.4B and LiHK make 700m in Sept, but JB and IA5 have already made most of their money in August.  Could be another down month and with LiHK making 800m in Oct while GML blew up for 1.4B that as well will be tough to beat unless there are a couple big hits. Also AM made 600m + but SS won't be released.

 

The year could be close to flat in dollars or even yuan

Edited by No Prisoners
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August 2016

Box office:4.053B +12.04% from last year

Admissions:126M +20% 

Summer 2016(June 1 -Aug 31)

Box office:12.43B -0.4% from last year

Admissions:373M +5.1% 

Jan-Aug 2016

Box office:33.15B +12.9% from last year

Admissions:985M +19.9% 

Edited by Olive
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For sept I've got ¥2.285b  -34% YoY

Last year was ¥3.4b

 

Last year the Oct 1 thru 7th holiday brought in 1.8b. This year Oct 1 is starting off down 15%. GMLs daily increases from the 1st to the 7th at 40m to 113m kept the dailies bolstered last year.  The holiday could be down 30% this year. No new openers next week like last year. Oct may be down ¥1b YoY by the 15th.

 

Edit. With OM increasing 5-10% per day, the holiday won't be down as much as I thought. About 300-350m less than last year, -16-20%.  

-500-550m yoy by the 15th. 

 

If Oct loses 700m for the month YoY, the YTD will be up 5% Yuan. Minus 1% in dollars

 

Edited by No Prisoners
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November up slightly in yuan, flat in dollars. Average rate was 6.40 on 2015,  6.85 in 2016

 

  2013 2014   2015     2016
Jan 1650 1920 +16.4% 2590 +34.9% 3849 +48.6%
Feb 2120 3240 +52.8% 4050 +25.0% 6870 +69.6%
Mar 1390 1620 +16.5% 2910 +79.6% 3750 +28.9%
Apr 1790 1770 -1.1% 4090 +131.1% 3000 -26.7%
May 2130 2220 +4.2% 3180 +43.2% 3001 -5.6%
Jun 1820 2720 +49.5% 3286 +20.8% 3800 +15.6%
Jul 1790 3610 +101.7% 5500 +52.4% 4450 -19.1%
Aug 2320 2550 +9.9% 3620 +42.0% 4053 +12.0%
Sep 1300 1800 +38.5% 3400 +88.9% 2230 -34.4%
Oct 1600 2760 +72.5% 4200 +52.2% 3417 -18.6%
Nov 1560 2300 +47.4% 2662 +15.7% 2830 +6.3%
Dec 2200 2460 +11.8% 4203 +70.9%    
YTD 19,470 28,970 +48.8% 43,691 +50.8%    
($M)   $4,665   $6,957 +49.1%    
               
      Thru- 39,488 Thru- 41,250 +4.5%
      Nov 2015 $6,308 Nov 2016 $6,212 -1.5%
               
      Mar-Nov 32,848 Mar-Oct 30,531 -7.1%
        $5,231   $4,598 -12.1%

 

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On 2016/12/3 at 6:18 PM, Agafin said:

So how did November fare un the end? (compared to last year)

November 2016
Gross :2.544B yuan -4.4%

Jan-Nov 2016
Gross :41.42B yuan +4%

Edited by Olive
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