What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

[POTUS 2020]

23 hours ago, NCsoft said:

 

Any guesses on how Nov/Dec might perform? Is it quite likely that the entire year 2016 will be down in dollars compared to 2015?

Dec was up 62% last year. Last years large YOY increases like that haven't been overcome this year except for CNY.

If the rest of the year can manage to hold flat, the year will be down in dollars so I think there is a good chance the year will be negative unless there are a couple of breakouts. It'll likely be within +/-2% of flat in dollars

 

[Lihongkim]

On 10/18/2016 at 2:30 PM, NCsoft said:

 

Any guesses on how Nov/Dec might perform? Is it quite likely that the entire year 2016 will be down in dollars compared to 2015?

I'm sure for Nov (absolutely increase) since last year BO is not big. But Dec ?

 

Last year top 5 Nov BO (If I'm not wrong) :  

1. Spectre 535M

2. Martian 333M

3. Our Times 278M

4. Exfile 2 : 250M 

5. Maze Runner 2 : 178M

 

This Nov, we will see Doctor Strange, Billy Lin, Fantastic Beasts, I'm Not Madam Bovary, Warriors Gate, ...etc

 

Last year top 5 Dec BO (4B) :

1. Mojin : 1368M

2. Devil & Angel : 595M

3. Mr. Six : 467M

4. Surprise : 320M

5. The Martian : 260M 

 

This Dec, we will see The Great Wall (Dec.16), Buddy in India (Dec.23), The Waste Times(Dec.23), Sword Master(Dec.2), Suddenly 17(Dec.2),...etc

If JC's Railroad Tige didn't move from Dec.16, Dec should be alright. Now it'll highly depend on Zhang Yimou's The Great Wall.     

[peludo]

41 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

I'm sure for Nov (absolutely increase) since last year BO is not big. But Dec ?

 

Last year top 5 Nov BO (If I'm not wrong) :  

1. Spectre 535M

2. Martian 333M

3. Our Times 278M

4. Exfile 2 : 250M 

5. Maze Runner 2 : 178M

 

This Nov, we will see Doctor Strange, Billy Lin, Fantastic Beasts, I'm Not Madam Bovary, Warriors Gate, ...etc

 

Last year top 5 Dec BO (4B) :

1. Mojin : 1368M

2. Devil & Angel : 595M

3. Mr. Six : 467M

4. Surprise : 320M

5. The Martian : 260M 

 

This Dec, we will see The Great Wall (Dec.16), Buddy in India (Dec.23), The Waste Times(Dec.23), Sword Master(Dec.2), Suddenly 17(Dec.2),...etc

If JC's Railroad Tige didn't move from Dec.16, Dec should be alright. Now it'll highly depend on Zhang Yimou's The Great Wall.     

Maybe is too much for ask, but are there any predictions for those Nov-Dec movies?

[NCsoft]

14 hours ago, Lihongkim said:

I'm sure for Nov (absolutely increase) since last year BO is not big. But Dec ?

 

Last year top 5 Nov BO (If I'm not wrong) :  

1. Spectre 535M

2. Martian 333M

3. Our Times 278M

4. Exfile 2 : 250M 

5. Maze Runner 2 : 178M

 

This Nov, we will see Doctor Strange, Billy Lin, Fantastic Beasts, I'm Not Madam Bovary, Warriors Gate, ...etc

 

Last year top 5 Dec BO (4B) :

1. Mojin : 1368M

2. Devil & Angel : 595M

3. Mr. Six : 467M

4. Surprise : 320M

5. The Martian : 260M 

 

This Dec, we will see The Great Wall (Dec.16), Buddy in India (Dec.23), The Waste Times(Dec.23), Sword Master(Dec.2), Suddenly 17(Dec.2),...etc

If JC's Railroad Tige didn't move from Dec.16, Dec should be alright. Now it'll highly depend on Zhang Yimou's The Great Wall.     

 

Thanks for the analysis, looking forward to how The great Wall performs, looks like this year really won't be much of an increase over last year, curious to see what 2017 brings.

[Lihongkim]

14 hours ago, peludo said:

Maybe is too much for ask, but are there any predictions for those Nov-Dec movies?

As far as I know, Feng Xiaogang's I'm not Madam Bovary signed 500M guarantee. 

[POTUS 2020]

Another article pointing out the slow down. Writers still have yet to realize that the slowdown is in large part a percentage of GDP issue. However this article does address two of my points in my original post. The novelty is wearing off and audience is demanding better quality. The GDP is the reason for it leveling off, The novelty factor and/or quality demand could be the cause of the YoY decline for the last 6 months.

 

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-china-box-office-20161024-snap-story.html

Ryan Faughnder and Yanan Wang

 

At the Wanda Imax theater in Beijing’s bustling Central Business District, shopping mall patrons passed the time on couches in the lobby as they waited to meet friends on a Wednesday afternoon — but many weren’t there to see movies.

Some in fact, like 21-year-old Tian Zhuanghui, said a lack of good films have kept them away from the multiplex.

 

“I watch movies a lot less now,” Tian, a recent university graduate, said with a shrug. “I just don’t have the desire to anymore. The excitement is gone.”

Tian, who prefers fantasy and science fiction pictures, is far from alone in her waning interest. Her sentiment reflects a surprising plot twist in the world’s second-largest film market: a dramatic box-office slowdown.

Experts have scrambled to explain the phenomenon, citing a poor film lineup, a lack of discounts from online ticket sellers, and increased government scrutiny of phony box office statistics.

 

“There are a lot of things to be concerned about, and a slowdown in the box office there is one of them,” said Rob Cain, a producer and veteran studio consultant on China. “A lot of Chinese audiences are getting tired of paying good money for bad films.”

Edited October 25, 2016 by No Prisoners

[POTUS 2020]

The year is now negative in dollars. Should the this be a sign that the BO has caught up to the economy and should the economy continue to grow at 4% faster than domestic with urban migration continuing at 1% then China will pass Domestic by 2031. If the Chinese economy goes flat for a long period of time like Japan did after 25 years of large growth, it will take decades. Now that China is no longer a developing economy, its doubtful they will return to double digit growth, earlier than 2030 is unlikely, 2017-2018 has been laid to rest.  Thanks for participating in the survey.

	2013	2014		2015			2016
Jan	1650	1920	+16.4%	2590	+34.9%	3849	+48.6%
Feb	2120	3240	+52.8%	4050	+25.0%	6870	+69.6%
Mar	1390	1620	+16.5%	2910	+79.6%	3750	+28.9%
Apr	1790	1770	-1.1%	4090	+131.1%	3000	-26.7%
May	2130	2220	+4.2%	3180	+43.2%	3001	-5.6%
Jun	1820	2720	+49.5%	3286	+20.8%	3800	+15.6%
Jul	1790	3610	+101.7%	5500	+52.4%	4450	-19.1%
Aug	2320	2550	+9.9%	3620	+42.0%	4053	+12.0%
Sep	1300	1800	+38.5%	3400	+88.9%	2230	-34.4%
Oct	1600	2760	+72.5%	4200	+52.2%	3550	-15.5%
Nov	1560	2300	+47.4%	2750	+19.6%
Dec	2200	2460	+11.8%	4000	+62.6%
YTD	19,470	28,970	+48.8%	43,576	+50.4%
($M)		$4,665		$6,928
			Thru-	36,826	Thru-	38,553	+4.7%
			Oct 2015	$5,902	Oct 2016	$5,841	-1.0%
			Mar-Oct	30,186	Mar-Oct	27,834	-7.8%
				$4,838		$4,217	-12.8%

 

[NCsoft]

8 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

The year is now negative in dollars. Should the this be a sign that the BO has caught up to the economy and should the economy continue to grow at 4% faster than domestic with urban migration continuing at 1% then China will pass Domestic by 2031. If the Chinese economy goes flat for a long period of time like Japan did after 25 years of large growth, it will take decades. Now that China is no longer a developing economy, its doubtful they will return to double digit growth, earlier than 2030 is unlikely, 2017-2018 has been laid to rest.  Thanks for participating in the survey.

 

Wow, quite a bold statement there. I think indeed a lot of people have adjusted their optimistic outlook in Chinese box office based on the performance this year, but they simply pushed the target date from 2016-2018 to now 2020 or 2021, I haven't heard 2030 yet . Next year is going to be pretty interesting to watch!

[POTUS 2020]

13 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

Wow, quite a bold statement there. I think indeed a lot of people have adjusted their optimistic outlook in Chinese box office based on the performance this year, but they simply pushed the target date from 2016-2018 to now 2020 or 2021, I haven't heard 2030 yet . Next year is going to be pretty interesting to watch!

Assuming Domestic grows at 3% per year, CBO will need to grow at 15% per year to pass it by 2021 without the Yuan depreciating any further. We'll have a good idea by March as to what the trend will be for next year.  Jan Feb and Mar were the last 3 large up months before this apparent ceiling was hit. I thought it would level off gradually, closer to 8 billion, thru this and next year. I'm amazed at how abrupt it happened even with the addition of 25% more theaters. 

[Grand Moff]

Really interesting topic - would hate to see China ever overtake US, but if it does happen I can't see it for at least another 12-16 years.

[Agafin]

Hey @POTUS, it's very early for such pronostications, but I'm really starting to feel like China's BO might decrease in 2017. What do you think?

[POTUS 2020]

21 hours ago, Agafin said:

Hey @POTUS, it's very early for such pronostications, but I'm really starting to feel like China's BO might decrease in 2017. What do you think?

It's possible. It'll start off behind the 8 ball with Jan-Feb tough to beat at 10.7b with CNY exploding in 2016. Earlier in the year I thought BO would be hitting a saturation point soon as the BO/GDP suggested while the hype and novelty would last a little longer bolstering the numbers, causing a curve in growth but a flat line occurred.  It seems like novelty has worn off a bit and movie goers are maturing, more selective and less willing to jump on the bandwagon. Even highly rated films are unable to sustain legs like they were in in 2015 and early 2016. This year will be up a few percent but down several percent since March.  The BO/GDP will be .066 this year, at the high end of established markets. Very high considering China is much more rural. It's ratio may want to settle in the .050-.059 range.

If I were to bet money, I would say negative, but just a few percent.

Industry experts feel this year is an anomaly and that growth will return, 15% annual average is expected.  However, these are the same people that thought 30-40% growth would continue and BO would exceed Domestic by 2018-19.

[POTUS 2020]

Average XR in 2015 was 6.28Y to one dollar. 6.64 in 2016. BO is down 9.5% YoY for the last 3 quarters with only 2 positive growth months.

This year is off to a slow start, the holdovers are weaker into the new year and R1 will be half of SW7.  CNY is in late Jan when Pand3 three was released last year. If 1 or 2 of the CNY releases don't explode, Jan-Feb combined could be down 2b+ from last year's 10.8B. That will have a -5% impact for the year, if the novelty has worn and the negative month trend continues, -10%+ could happen.  My prediction on the year is below $6.3B

	2013	2014		2015			2016
Jan	1650	1920	+16.4%	2600	+35.4%	3900	+50.0%
Feb	2120	3240	+52.8%	4180	+29.0%	6900	+65.1%
Mar	1390	1620	+16.5%	2960	+82.7%	3810	+28.7%
Apr	1790	1770	-1.1%	4090	+131.1%	3050	-25.4%
May	2130	2220	+4.2%	3220	+45.0%	3045	-5.4%
Jun	1820	2720	+49.5%	3310	+21.7%	3860	+16.6%
Jul	1790	3610	+101.7%	5525	+53.0%	4490	-18.7%
Aug	2320	2550	+9.9%	3650	+43.1%	4110	+12.6%
Sep	1300	1800	+38.5%	3425	+90.3%	2300	-32.8%
Oct	1600	2760	+72.5%	4225	+53.1%	3500	-17.2%
Nov	1560	2300	+47.4%	2680	+16.5%	2585	-3.5%
Dec	2200	2460	+11.8%	4220	+71.5%	4150	-1.7%
YTD	19,470	28,970	+48.8%	44,085	+52.2%	45,700	+3.7%
($M)		$4,665		$7,020	+50.5%	$6,883	-2.0%
			Apr-Dec	34,345	Apr-Dec	31,090	-9.5%
				$5,469		$4,682	-14.4%

Edited January 3, 2017 by POTUS

[keysersoze123]

does china sell more or less tickets than domestic. I would assume its higher?

[Olive]

43 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

does china sell more or less tickets than domestic. I would assume its higher?

1.37B tickets, DOM around 1.32B

[POTUS 2020]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

does china sell more or less tickets than domestic. I would assume its higher?

Top seller is India at over 2B.  India is more rural than china, but they have shanty theaters set up in villages throughout the countryside to show regional language films at under $1

19 hours ago, Olive said:

1.37B tickets, DOM around 1.32B

I think ticket sales continue to grow as BO stays flat to down. Most of the new theaters are in lower priced 3rd and 4th tier cities and with a glut of theaters more discounting will occur. I could see a discount Tuesday coming so they can sell more snacks.

[Olive]

36 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Top seller is India at over 2B.  India is more rural than china, but they have shanty theaters set up in villages throughout the countryside to show regional language films at under $1

I think ticket sales continue to grow as BO stays flat to down. Most of the new theaters are in lower priced 3rd and 4th tier cities and with a glut of theaters more discounting will occur. I could see a discount Tuesday coming so they can sell more snacks.

China has rural theaters chain aslo, but not counted to the total BO.

For example, nearly 10M screening took place in rural places in 2016.

[keysersoze123]

still overall admissions are low relative to the population. Is it bcos its too expensive or access to multiplexes is missing outside large cities?

[peludo]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

still overall admissions are low relative to the population. Is it bcos its too expensive or access to multiplexes is missing outside large cities?

Probably both reasons are valid. However, being a low ratio (1 ticket per person and year), I do not see it extremely low, taking into account it was at 0.5 ticket per person just 3 years ago. I guess it will continue improving, maybe at a lower rate, but still relevant (if my data are correct there have been sold 112 million more tickets in 2016 than in 2015).

 

Among consolidated markets, Germany had a 1.5 tickets per person ratio in 2014. It does not seem a too far mark for China.

[Agafin]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

still overall admissions are low relative to the population. Is it bcos its too expensive or access to multiplexes is missing outside large cities?

 

Most of the theaters are concentrated in the city and with China being only 50% urbanized, that ratio makes sense.

 

Anyway, China's population is ageing due to the one china policy and low immigration and that is going to cancel most of the gains from increasing urbanisation.

 

Right now, China's BO admissions to population ratio is almost exactly 1. I'd say it will keep steadily rising and peak at about 1.3 (the same as Japan). But as POTUS said, ticket prices will drop un the short term.