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Asyulus

Kung Fu Panda 3 | 362m Overseas | 504m Worldwide

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Dreamworks would be celebrating like crazy if it make much money. They have badly needed a mega hit for a while now.

 

Oh, they will get a mega hit with KFP3. No doubt about it.  ;) 

I could see this going as high as $245 DOM and $900 OS.

Domestic-wise, it has no heavy competition until March when BvS opens.

Edited by MrFanaticGuy34
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if you have not learnt from dragon 2 that lack of competition alone is not enough for a movie to break out. There is ZERO chance for KFP3 to make 245m. Most probably its decreasing from predecessor and will finish around 100m domestic.

 

I would join a club of KFP3 in china > rest of the world :-)

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if you have not learnt from dragon 2 that lack of competition alone is not enough for a movie to break out. There is ZERO chance for KFP3 to make 245m. Most probably its decreasing from predecessor and will finish around 100m domestic.

 

I would join a club of KFP3 in china > rest of the world :-)

$100m? :rofl:

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if you have not learnt from dragon 2 that lack of competition alone is not enough for a movie to break out. There is ZERO chance for KFP3 to make 245m. Most probably its decreasing from predecessor and will finish around 100m domestic.

 

I would join a club of KFP3 in china > rest of the world :-)

OW will be over 100m. No reason to decrease domestically.

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if you have not learnt from dragon 2 that lack of competition alone is not enough for a movie to break out. There is ZERO chance for KFP3 to make 245m. Most probably its decreasing from predecessor and will finish around 100m domestic.

I would join a club of KFP3 in china > rest of the world :-)

Understandably so. And, yes...I have learned from HTTYD2 that it could be overpredicted, but the thing with that movie...is that it DID have blockbuster competition. Especially against the unexpected "22 Jump Street". And not only did 22JS steal Dragon 2's thunder, so did Maleficent weeks earlier.

And also, that film was released in the summer, and that's the time where the competitors were more fierce and all over the place.

KFP3 is getting released in January, a winter month where there's usually a dead month with big-budgeted flops and smaller movies.

And yeah, you have an understandably good point about it's DOM total. However, I wouldn't say $245M is an exact lock...but it's better for it if it did at least $200M DOM. I mean, AS has shown that movies can be big if they have great legs.

And also, I do have to respectfully disagree with one aspect, about it dropping from KFP2. Well, KFP2 dropped from KFP1 because of Hangover 2 & Pirates 4. We all over-predicted KFP2 back in 2011...but no one thought it would do less than the first one, let alone Hangover 2.

KFP3 is the opposite though. I feel this one is way too UNDER-predicted. I hear people are going as low as $100M flat. That ain't happening. Unless people think its a lame movie, then I would be more hesitant.

But.....you can't really only fully compare a Dreamworks sequel like HTTYD2 (a second parter) to KFP3 (a third parter).

So..what I also did was when I looked the comparison to another one of Dreamworks"s animated franchises, like "Madagascar" for example. And I also looked at the relative gross between MAD2 and MAD3, which I think us the more real, suitable comparison, when it comes to an very successful animated sequel that has this massive appeal to a large audience.

MAD3 increased $36M DOM from MAD2. And let's be fair here...MAD3 was also underestimated by most people in BoxOffice.com. Before that sequel was released, people said it would decrease from MAD2, like $140-$150M. And I top of that, people thought that Prometheus would win the weekend and gross more.

But in the end, it ended up being the opposite. Prometheus was at second place it's OW, and finished at $126M. MAD3 was at first place on OW, and that finished at $216M DOM.

So i see this performing more like MAD3 than HTTYD2. I might be wrong....but I'll say that it will considerably increase from the second one which will make this the biggest grosser of the franchise so far.

$225M DOM. It could go higher, if legs are stellar.

 

I'll stick with my $900 OS.

Edited by MrFanaticGuy34
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I dont think domestic audience is interested in another KFP movie. That franchise is past its sell by date. Plus its releasing in January and that is not a peak season for an animation movie.We will see for sure next year.

 

Again...i have to respectfully disagree about KFP3 not succeeding because it was 5 years later from KFP2.

 

Another sequel i can compare KFP3 to (although it's a different genre) is something like MI4:GP.

 

MI4 also came out 5 years after MI3, which that film was the lowest grosser of that franchise with $134M DOM. People underestimated how MI4 would do. But when that film was released, it ended up grossing over $209M DOM. Big increase over MI3. Granted MI4 had Alvin 3 and SH2 as competitors.

 

And about the interest of the KFP franchise in general, again, respectfully disagree. There are people, especially fans of the franchise who are hungry to see the third one. If you haven't noticed, the plot point from KFP2 where Po finds out that his goose father isn't really his real father, but his real father is the one who appears in his flashbacks and in the end of the second film. (who will be voiced by Bryan Cranston in this one.) That cliffhanger alone, raises hooks, anticipation and excitement for what would happen in KFP3.

 

So i really doubt that many people won't see the next sequel. Especially those that loved KFP1 & KFP2 which has 87% & 81% on RT, respectively.

 

I mean..seriously...what does KFP3 have going against it that won't let it increase? It has nothing. 

Edited by MrFanaticGuy34
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I dont think domestic audience is interested in another KFP movie. That franchise is past its sell by date. Plus its releasing in January and that is not a peak season for an animation movie.We will see for sure next year.

Date doesn't matter

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Transformers 4 increased 11% from its predecessor's OS, despite earning $320M in China. That percentage increase is as high as my bet for KFP3 can go ($560M).

Just stop comparing KFP3 to Tramsformers, they are different franchises. And TF4 is the fourth installment of the series. Fourth installments usually drop from 3rd.

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