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Asyulus

Kung Fu Panda 3 | 362m Overseas | 504m Worldwide

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Non-China OS saw a slight increase of $20M and I see a decrease coming round this time so China increase will barely compensate. $530M

?!! What?!

 

KFP2 made 410M without China. 

 

KFP3 has a big chance of being the first movie to make $400M from China. You expect the rest of the OS markets to fall 250M+ from the last one? :rofl:  :rofl:  :rofl:  :rofl:

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Asian markets are growing and KFP2 didn't benefit that much from 3D, plus there's also the plausible probability that exchange rates will improve during the 2nd half of the year. And China will most likely eat this like beetles feed on dung. It's not reasonable to expect sub-250M from China or sub-350M from RoW, so any below 600M OS looks really dumb.

 

I'd say 440M RoW+430M China = 870M

WW about 1.05B

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This is yet another animated franchise where the DOM gross is a bonus rather than a primary motivator. It'll be curious to see whether it manages to come close to Home's gross. HTTYD2 was beaten by The Croods, after all.

 

For OS, it's clear that being a sequel has benefits. Both Madagascar sequels, KFP2, and HTTYD2 all got better than 70% of their gross OS. As did all three Ice Age sequels and Rio 2. (So did Rio, which is actually a bit strange for a franchise starter.) So this could see a rise in OS-C, even though China is the clear point for huge growth.

 

This could hit 800m OS and still fail to get a billion WW.

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This is yet another animated franchise where the DOM gross is a bonus rather than a primary motivator. It'll be curious to see whether it manages to come close to Home's gross. HTTYD2 was beaten by The Croods, after all.

 

For OS, it's clear that being a sequel has benefits. Both Madagascar sequels, KFP2, and HTTYD2 all got better than 70% of their gross OS. As did all three Ice Age sequels and Rio 2. (So did Rio, which is actually a bit strange for a franchise starter.) So this could see a rise in OS-C, even though China is the clear point for huge growth.

 

This could hit 800m OS and still fail to get a billion WW.

Even so, KFP3 should do over 430m OS -C, and at least 400m from China. That becomes 830m OS.

DOM should be above 170 million.

1b is looking likely, but it is not locked.

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Even so, KFP3 should do over 430m OS -C, and at least 400m from China. That becomes 830m OS.

DOM should be above 170 million.

1b is looking likely, but it is not locked.

 

While I can believe 400m in China, I don't think it's assured, just yet. We don't know the exact release date and if it's separated from CNY, it could cut down on the potential by quite a bit.

 

Besides that, 170m may be optimistic for DOM. KFP2 got 165m, and that could be upper bound for KFP3. It could see a modest decline.

 

So something like a 150/300/450 situation (DOM/China/Rest) wouldn't surprise me. But at the same time, I also wouldn't be surprised by a 200/400/500 run. It has the potential to hit a billion, but I don't quite think it's likely, just yet.

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Wow, loving these predictions. I'll be a bit more conservative and say 650M OS. There was some over predicting with KFP2, I just don't want this one to be a "flop" cause it makes "only" 800M WW.

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