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baumer

Weekend Thread JW 54.2M, hits 500 | IO 52M | pg 99

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Great hold by JW if it holds up with actuals!

 

These are as close to actuals as we will get.  RTH reported late.

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Ted looks like it will do about 33-34 mill.  Yep, that's pretty bad.

Spy is on pace to drop by about 25%.  Excellent.

San Andreas on pace to drop by about 35%....very nice.

Edited by baumer
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So, Spy is going to have about a 25% drop. I'm not one of those guys to say I told you so, but I did. Right from the beginning WOM on this was sure to make it a leggy film. so I looked at the Proposal for a comparison. The Proposal fell 45% in its second weekend against Transformers 2 and then after that it stabilized for the rest of the summer. Spy is going to do the same. It's going to hit a 4X because it's a really fun movie.

IO is a monster. It's going to drop incredibly well this weekend and that's pretty incredible coming off an inflated weekend.

JW is obviously crumbling. Where is that dude anyway? Fake, who is a great box office guy, said this might not hit 600. I said it would easily pass Avengers. It will and it has it's site set on Titanic now. With about a 56% jump, this is looking like Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for weekend bumps. It too was jumping 55% on Saturdays in June. Difference is of course, JW has monster weekdays. The weekend projections are going to be interesting. With a 22% Sunday drop, JW makes 55.7 mill this weekend. With an 18% drop, IO makes about 53 mill. Universal should just come out on Sunday and declare victory. It seems certain this time.

I told you that JW would win the weekend and that Ted 2 would disappoint, daddy.

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I told you that JW would win the weekend and that Ted 2 would disappoint, daddy.

 

Good call on Ted 2. I didn't disagree with you about JW winning, I just said that it would be close.  IO's Sunday drop should be less than JW's to make it close.  

 

But I want JW to win, smash a few more records, hope it gets to 700.

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Saturday bumps were huge last night. I am wondering if Sunday might be worse to compensate.

 

There's really nothing on today to take away its business.

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Good call on Ted 2. I didn't disagree with you about JW winning, I just said that it would be close.  IO's Sunday drop should be less than JW's to make it close.  

 

But I want JW to win, smash a few more records, hope it gets to 700.

700M? Whoa.

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These are as close to actuals as we will get.  RTH reported late.

So these numbers were from Rth's later update? They should be pretty close to the official numbers then.

 

Awesome for JW and IO. This weekend didn't turn out to be as fun as I thought it'd be no thanks to Ted's underperforming. :angry:

 

It's insane to think JW has almost similar Sat jump to TA, in June.  :mellow:

Edited by KATCH 22
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Ted looks like it will do about 33-34 mill.  Yep, that's pretty bad.

Spy is on pace to drop by about 25%.  Excellent.

San Andreas on pace to drop by about 35%....very nice.

I liked both a lot so I am really happy for those solid late legs after both collapsed against JW's OW. 

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Next weekend is going to look a little strange. 2009 was the last time the 4th of july was on a saturday.  So films will increase normally on a Friday, then drop big time on Saturday and then increase moderately on Sunday.  If IO is to follow UP, it would have a 56% increase on Friday, drop 32% Saturday and increase by about 7% Sunday.  Not sure what to compare JW to.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2009-07-05&track=up.htm

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