Thursday numbers: IO 7.7,JW 6.8,TG 6.3, MM2 5.7 (Gopher strikes again)

[CJohn]

This is a crap weekend to open movies, IMO.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

This is a crap weekend to open movies, IMO.

At least Magic Mike is slaying in Portugal

[JohnnyGossamer]

So... Is it definitely a race between Jurassic World and Inside Out again this weekend? Calm before the Minions invade the global consciousness? Calling it now... Minions $150M+ OW DOM.

[Mojoguy]

Calm before the Minions invade the global consciousness?

JW and IO already did that.

[JohnnyGossamer]

JW and IO already did that.

Oh, no doubt. And, the Minions are next. Likely the last true event OW DOM/OS of the summer unless Ant-Man or M:I 5 breakout.

 

In other news, another superb weekday number for Inside Out... Hoping it eeks out a weekend victory over Jurassic World.

Edited July 3, 2015 by JohnnyGossamer

[mahnamahna]

Friday Predicts:

IO: $9.7m

JW: $8.5m

TG: $8.3m

MM: $7.6m

That would be absolutely awful for IO/JW. Not even a 25% Friday increase when a 30%+ Sat drop is coming? 

 

Realistically:

IO - $11.7 million (55% Fri increase like Up)

JW - $11 million (typical 60% Fri increase like it's done its whole run)

TG - $9.3 million (50% Fri increase) 

MM -  $8 million (40% Fri increase)

 

IO doing $9.5 million Fri would mean:

$6.5 million Sat

$9.5 million Sun 

 

$25.5 million 3rd weekend - no way it drops over 50% this weekend with zero competition. 38-42% makes more sense. 

[CJohn]

IO and JW must save us again and go over 30M. 

[mahnamahna]

This is a crap weekend to open movies, IMO.

Terminator and Ted 2 underperforming is a combo of looking mediocre... and audiences preparing for July 2015's lineup.

 

Minions - $275 million+ DOM 

Ant-Man - $150 million+ DOM 

Trainwreck - $75 million+ DOM 

Pixels - $125 million+ DOM

Paper Towns - $60 million+ DOM 

Mission Impossible 5 - $175 million+ DOM 

Vacation - $75 million+ DOM 

 

Each week is looking to have a solid hit. And I'm really low-balling all of those except possibly Paper Towns. 

 

IO - $33 million 

JW - $31 million 

 

They'll do decent enough to keep this weekend afloat. Although XXL has already pretty much made its money back. 

Edited July 3, 2015 by mahnamahna

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Terminator will not even make 90m

[mahnamahna]

Oh, no doubt. And, the Minions are next. Likely the last true event OW DOM/OS of the summer unless Ant-Man or M:I 5 breakout.

 

In other news, another superb weekday number for Inside Out... Hoping it eeks out a weekend victory over Jurassic World.

Pixels waits in the corner for the opportune moment to sucker-punch the BO.... I honestly think that the last true BO event for this summer will be something no one sees coming. Minions, Ant-Man and MI5 have plenty thinking $200 million+ DOM, so they're out. Pixels, one of the two July R-rated comedies or Compton should shock some people, though (1 of the 3  - not all 3) 

 

To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if Pixels ends up topping Ant-Man/MI5... it's the last film with family appeal this summer, Adam Sandler is a draw still in the right project, Chris Columbus has the Midas touch with family-friendly tentpoles in terms of BO (HP 1-2, Home Alone 1-2, NATM 1-2, Mrs. Doubtfire all adjust to $200 million+ DOM with 3D and regular inflation), and similar to JW/IO, no one is expecting much from it. 

 

Of course Trainwreck or Vacation or Compton doing $175 million+ DOM would be an even bigger shock IMO, since at least Pixels is a tentpole. 

Edited July 3, 2015 by mahnamahna

[Mike Wazowski]

I hope JW takes the first spot again 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Pixels waits in the corner for the opportune moment to sucker-punch the BO.... I honestly think that the last true BO event for this summer will be something no one sees coming. Minions, Ant-Man and MI5 have plenty thinking $200 million+ DOM, so they're out. Pixels, one of the two July R-rated comedies or Compton should shock some people, though (1 of the 3  - not all 3) 

 

To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if Pixels ends up topping Ant-Man/MI5... it's the last film with family appeal this summer, Adam Sandler is a draw still in the right project, Chris Columbus has the Midas touch with family-friendly tentpoles in terms of BO (HP 1-2, Home Alone 1-2, NATM 1-2, Mrs. Doubtfire all adjust to $200 million+ DOM with 3D and regular inflation), and similar to JW/IO, no one is expecting much from it. 

 

Of course Trainwreck or Vacation or Compton doing $175 million+ DOM would be an even bigger shock IMO, since at least Pixels is a tentpole. 

I don't disagree. I expect Minions, Ant-Man, Pixels and Mission: Impossible to all meet/exceed expectations at the box office. While flicks like Trainwreck, Southpaw and Vacation will add some nice funds to round out a few weekends as well. No one wanted Ted 2 and/or Terminator 5. XXL, given it's budget, it actually doing just fine.

[Mike Wazowski]

I don't disagree. I expect Minions, Ant-Man, Pixels and Mission: Impossible to all meet/exceed expectations at the box office. While flicks like Trainwreck, Southpaw and Vacation will add some nice funds to round out a few weekends as well. No one wanted Ted 2 and/or Terminator 5. XXL, given it's budget, it actually doing just fine.

yep, you completely nailed it, no one asked for that movies (may be a bit of terminator, but not like this anyway), Ted2 and XXL really shouldn't be, I think if Maze Runner 2 was released this or last weekend BO would be healthier this past weeks (days)

Edited July 3, 2015 by Mike Wazowski

[Ethan Hunt]

I was laughed at last year when I said Terminator wouldn't make 100M of course a couple of months ago I sensed lots of hype and completely 180'd my expectations

[CJohn]

I was laughed at last year when I said Terminator wouldn't make 100M of course a couple of months ago I sensed lots of hype and completely 180'd my expectations

I am glad I never changed my prediction. I always said it would fail to do 100M. 

[mahnamahna]

I don't disagree. I expect Minions, Ant-Man, Pixels and Mission: Impossible to all meet/exceed expectations at the box office. While flicks like Trainwreck, Southpaw and Vacation will add some nice funds to round out a few weekends as well. No one wanted Ted 2 and/or Terminator 5. XXL, given it's budget, it actually doing just fine.

Exactly.. if Ted 2 had been as good as 22JS, it would have done $50 million OW+. Likewise, if Terminator had been Fury Road quality, a $65-75 million 5 day would happen, especially since JW has now slowed down. 

 

I do think either Trainwreck or Vacation will explode at the BO, though. Spy didn't do blockbuster numbers ($110-120 million DOM), while Ted 2 is looking at $80-90 million DOM. PP2 and Pixels are PG-13. Entourage was niche. That and the solid buzz for Trainwreck/Vacation makes me think one of the two will break-out as this year's comedy hit. 

 

My actual predicts for July 2015 are closer to:

Minions - $350 million 

Pixels - $240 million 

MI5 - $210 million 

Ant-Man - $190 million 

Vacation - $140 million 

Trainwreck - $105 million 

Terminator - $85 million 

MMXXL - $75 million 

Paper Towns - $70 million 

Southpaw - $25 million 

Gallows - $20 million 

Self/Less - $15 million 

 

I'm probably way too high on Pixels   but it's the only tentpole for the rest of the summer that would be a JW/IO sized surprise if it broke out at the BO. And I think the lack of major family-friendly films in August/early-mid September will help Pixels out, more than Ant-Man/MI5 

[Mike Wazowski]

I was laughed at last year when I said Terminator wouldn't make 100M of course a couple of months ago I sensed lots of hype and completely 180'd my expectations

Like JW, this terminator could be big (not as big ofc), but everything failed hard, since the spoiler trailer to the marketing, to the bad execution or even the cast itself! People just don't want to see everything of the movie on the trailer and even if they saved anything they already had shown to much. They simply just don't know how to make a good terminator movie like Cameron's.

[junkshop36]

This is a crap weekend to open movies, IMO.

Didn't use to be that way. Will Smith made his career staring in movies that opened over the 4th of July.

The Transformers movies did pretty well during this time.

Studios just need to put something that audiences actually want to see on the weekend.

[JennaJ]

Like JW, this terminator could be big (not as big ofc), but everything failed hard, since the spoiler trailer to the marketing, to the bad execution or even the cast itself! People just don't want to see everything of the movie on the trailer and even if they saved anything they already had shown to much. They simply just don't know how to make a good terminator movie like Cameron's.

 

I wonder how long it will take before we get our first "What TG got wrong that JW got right" article.

I'm sure we'll get at least one.

[Ethan Hunt]

Like JW, this terminator could be big (not as big ofc), but everything failed hard, since the spoiler trailer to the marketing, to the bad execution or even the cast itself! People just don't want to see everything of the movie on the trailer and even if they saved anything they already had shown to much. They simply just don't know how to make a good terminator movie like Cameron's.

I saw everyone talking about it st school and I thought maybe there nis some excitement for this

Apparently not