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Wednesday: Minions 11.1, IO 2.6, JW 2.2

By BoxOfficeZ, in Numbers and Data

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e1828 Indie Sensation

e1828

Posted
Posted

Largest DOMESTIC Totals – After Day 27

1) Jurassic World – $569,287,130 (Wed - $3,755,685)

2) Marvel’s The Avengers - $529,688,996 (Wed - $2,515,041)

3) The Dark Knight - $451,888,386 (Wed - $3,002,302) 

4) Avatar - $445,768,203 (Wed - $4,743,762)

5) Avengers: Age of Ultron - $414,747,982 (Wed - $1,429,415)

6) The Dark Knight Rises - $396,743,702 (Wed - $2,137,123)

7) Iron Man 3 - $375,582,715 (Wed - $1,246,787)

8) Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $366,387,380 (Wed - $2,549,037) 

9) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $365,583,739 (Mon - $1,775,616)

10) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $361,589,963 (Wed - $1,243,105)

11) Shrek 2 - $356,211,204 (Mon - $2,877,887)

12) Harry Potter 7b:  Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $348,563,937 (Wed - $1,662,317)

13) Toy Story 3 - $348,453,463 (Wed - $2,988,462)

14) The Hunger Games - $340,961,282 (Wed - $1,332,029)

15) Spiderman - $337,501,557 (Wed - $1,851,732) 

16) Star Wars 3: ROTS - $335,384,779 (Tue - $1,586,799)

17) Spiderman 2 - $330,335,827 (Mon - $1,867,064) 

18) Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $327,418,686 (Mon - $1,577,501)

19) Furious 7 - $323,661,305 (Wed - $991,885)

20) Lord Of The Rings: ROTK -

$313,419,033 (Mon - $1,098,097) 

21) Spiderman 3 - $309,752,119 (Wed - $963,481) 

22) Despicable Me 2 - $309,089,500 (Mon - $2,276,780)

23) Star Wars 1: TPM - $299,990,176 (Mon - $3,025,265)

24) Alice in Wonderland - $299,459,690 (Wed - $1,908,799)

25) The Passion Of The Christ - $297,280,146 (Mon - $1,772,902)

26) Inside Out - $292,470,389 (Wed - $2,584,048)

27) Shrek The Third - $286,485,097 (Wed - $1,703,265)

28) American Sniper - $286,221,115 (Wed - $1,468,160)(1)

29) Transformers -

$284,677,134 (Sun - $3,674,856)

30) Lord Of The Rings: TT - $284,460,743 (Mon - $1,039,226)

31) Iron Man 2 - $282,259,624 (Wed - $1,220,457)

32) The Twilight Saga:  Eclipse - $280,909,882 (Mon - $1,082,620)

33) The Hunger Games:  Mockingjay Part 1 - $280,389,796 (Wed - $1,021,818)

34) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $279,472,621 (Tue - $1,455,092) 

35) Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End - $278,455,146 (Wed - $1,404,729)

36) Man of Steel - $275,158,775 (Wed - $1,228,355)

37) Harry Potter 6:  HBP - $275,140,006 (Mon - $1,291,373)

38) The Twilight Saga:  Breaking Dawn Part 2 - $270,972,532 (Wed - $712,401)

39) The Twilight Saga:  New Moon - $269,469,446 (Wed - $708,427)
40) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $267,891,777 (Wed - $1,174,496)

41) Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $262,654,623 (Mon - $1,627,226) 

42) The Twilight Saga:  Breaking Dawn Part 1 - $261,451,406 (Wed - $651,265)

43) Iron Man - $261,235,207 (Wed - $1,395,588)

44) Harry Potter 7a:  Deathly Hallows Part 1 - $259,924,254 (Wed - $727,307)

45) Star Wars 2: AOTC - $258,244,390 (Tue - $1,654,676) 

46) Guardians of the Galaxy - $256,734,812 (Wed - $1,507,039)

47) The Matrix: Reloaded - $249,783,329 (Tue - $1,027,397)

48) Skyfall - $249,433,656 (Wed - $1,214,376)

49) Harry Potter 4: GOF - $246,064,434  (Wed - $595,298)

50) Monsters University - $242,664,821 (Wed - $1,444,631)

51) Harry Potter 1: SS - $242,447,542 (Wed - $889,000)

52) The Amazing Spider-Man - $241,953,721 (Sun - $2,041,776)

53) The Hobbit:  Battle of the Five Armies - $237,180,324 (Mon - $720,719)

54) The Hangover Part II - $235,629,560 (Tue - $1,285,467)

55) Inception - $235,007,121 (Wed - $2,216,375)

 

1)     Includes $3.4 million before wide release

 

·         The Dark Knight becomes the third fastest to reach $450 million on Day 27.

·         Stars Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace overtakes Alice in Wonderland and just misses $300 million by $10K.

·         Transformers moves up another 2 spots on Day 27.

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e1828 Indie Sensation

e1828

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Posted

Largest DOMESTIC Totals – After Day 34

1) Jurassic World – $597,829,670 (Wed - $2,202,240)

2) Marvel’s The Avengers - $559,076,546 (Wed - $1,862,060)

3) Avatar - $512,852,205 (Wed - $3,792,807)

4) The Dark Knight - $477,148,000 (Wed - $1,805,312) 
5) Avengers: Age of Ultron - $430,868,667 (Wed - $973,884)

6) The Dark Knight Rises - $413,861,764 (Wed - $1,196,744)

7) Iron Man 3 - $387,631,585 (Wed - $808,293)

8) Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $383,881,830 (Wed - $1,225,457) 

9) Shrek 2 - $380,509,910 (Mon - $1,886,647)

10) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $380,342,669 (Mon - $1,128,497)

11) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $377,884,011 (Wed - $2,528,150)

12) Toy Story 3 - $368,682,193 (Wed - $1,761,406)

13) Harry Potter 7b:  Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $360,565,265 (Wed - $927,487)

14) The Hunger Games - $360,163,155 (Wed - $944,136)

15) Spiderman - $358,505,354 (Wed - $1,521,914) 

16) Star Wars 3: ROTS - $350,346,885 (Tue - $1,076,732)

17) Spiderman 2 - $345,683,315 (Mon - $1,242,721) 

18) Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $338,838,869 (Mon - 831,144)

19) Furious 7 - $332,653,095 (Wed - $480,115)

20)

Star Wars 1: TPM - $330,443,466 (Mon - $2,370,597)

21) Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $329,040,393 (Mon - $2,228,291) 

22) Despicable Me 2 - $327,966,980 (Mon - $1,555,395)

23) Spiderman 3 - $320,558,568 (Wed - $711,727) 

24) The Passion Of The Christ - $316,345,913 (Mon - $1,193,135)

25) Alice in Wonderland - $312,796,786 (Wed - $873,985)

26) American Sniper - $308,800,018 (Wed - $1,037,497)(1)

27) Shrek The Third - $300,965,639 (Wed - $1,302,464)

28) Lord Of The Rings: TT - $300,122,052 (Mon - $2,229,602)

29) Transformers - $296,379,328 (Sun - $1,937,792)

30) The Hunger Games:  Mockingjay Part 1 - $293,970,225 (Wed - $987,657)

31) Iron Man 2 - $293,907,591 (Wed - $848,031)

32) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $292,966,296 (Tue - $978,052) 

33) Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End - $289,838,885 (Wed - $887,597)

34) The Twilight Saga:  Eclipse - $288,848,358 (Mon - $648,451)

35) Harry Potter 6:  HBP - $284,616,272 (Mon - $737,247)

36) Guardians of the Galaxy - $283,566,704 (Wed - $974,670)

37) Man of Steel - $282,735,742 (Wed - $542,089)

38) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $280,327,393 (Wed - $638,323)

39) Iron Man - $280,045,742 (Wed - $1,312,678)

40) The Twilight Saga:  Breaking Dawn Part 2 - $278,452,299 (Wed - $494,274)

41) The Twilight Saga:  New Moon - $277,523,522 (Wed - $903,460)

42) Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $272,828,538 (Mon - $781,150)

43) Star Wars 2: AOTC - $272,791,097 (Tue - $1,028,620)

44) Harry Potter 7a:  Deathly Hallows Part 1 - $268,711,916 (Wed - $903,132)

45) The Twilight Saga:  Breaking Dawn Part 1 - $268,192,542 (Wed - $515,186)

46) Skyfall - $264,414,319 (Wed - $963,787)

 

1)     Includes $3.4 million before wide release

 

·         Shrek 2 overtakes Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen for the #9 spot.

·         Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith passes $350 million.

·         Shrek the Third and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers both surpass the $300 million mark on Day 34.

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The Dark Alfred Summer Tentpole

The Dark Alfred

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Posted

My post:

And your reply:

You concluded from my post that I have given it worse legs than TS3?

Does not make sense. Sorry, it's a stupid reply.

I have given it better legs than both the other movies.

My statement is clear, I said I don't see why it can't have better legs than TS3, didn't say that you suggested that. We agree on most part, the only difference is that you're predicting a ceiling and I'm predicting a floor for IO. The way it's performing I don't think we can put a lid on anything between 350-380m.
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RamblinRed Box Office Gold

RamblinRed

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Posted

So are most thinking the following for the weekend

 

1. Ant-man

2. Minions

3. Trainwreck

4. IO

5. JW

 

I've got a 12 yr old son at home so i've started to see a ton of Ant-Man commercials in the last week or so and I will say they have been enjoyable and have me thinking i'd like to see the movie with him. I'm guessing close to $70M for Ant-man - give or take a million or 2.

 

Minions seems to be looking at 55-60M weekend 2.

 

Trainwreck should take 3rd pretty easy

 

and then we have the 2 partners - JW and IO. JW finished last weekend up by 500K. My gut is that Ant-man and Trainwreck combined take a little more from JW than IO, so they might flip from last weekend and still likely be within 500K of each other one way or the other.

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The Dark Alfred Summer Tentpole

The Dark Alfred

Posted
Posted

So are most thinking the following for the weekend

1. Ant-man

2. Minions

3. Trainwreck

4. IO

5. JW

I've got a 12 yr old son at home so i've started to see a ton of Ant-Man commercials in the last week or so and I will say they have been enjoyable and have me thinking i'd like to see the movie with him. I'm guessing close to $70M for Ant-man - give or take a million or 2.

Minions seems to be looking at 55-60M weekend 2.

Trainwreck should take 3rd pretty easy

and then we have the 2 partners - JW and IO. JW finished last weekend up by 500K. My gut is that Ant-man and Trainwreck combined take a little more from JW than IO, so they might flip from last weekend and still likely be within 500K of each other one way or the other.

Pretty much agree. Mid 60s for AM, IO ahead of JW by 0.7-0.8m.
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JohnnyGossamer Global Phenomenon

JohnnyGossamer

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In other minor news, San Andreas passed Mad Max: Fury Road to be WB's highest grosser this summer.

At last, formula trumps the avant-garde yet again! Nonsense aside, both movies did very well considering expectation. And, who knows, maybe Fury Road retakes the lead during its run in dollar theaters?

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BadAtGender Global Phenomenon

BadAtGender

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Posted (edited)

 
First post here... and a bit of a multi-part question and really directed at multiple people. Quoted you, gb0708, because your interest in the Terminator BO reminds me of my renewed on-and-off interest in (casually, relatively speaking) following BO receipts over the past 15+ years. For me, MM:FR brought me back to the numbers and the ensuing analysis/prediction of the movie and the rest of the BO. With that, over the past six weeks or so of reading threads, I'm still a bit dumbfounded about how this all works. That said...    
 
 
Gopher/RTH (or whomever), I assume you guys have access to regional market numbers (I've seen RTH list engagements)? Does that include per screening numbers (as well as showtimes) from any given individual theaters? I ask because so many numbers are given in large gross numbers and a lot of predictions/percentages seem to be predicated on percentage changes that can become distorted from breakouts/holidays/flukes. Success seems much more determined on opening big and staying big (thus holding onto locations) much more than movies traditionally did in the 80s, 90s, and even into the 2000s. Therefore, many slow-starting blockbusters from the past would never survive a lackluster reception in this era. I guess I'm wondering if distributors/exhibitors are too busy chasing immediate gratification that they quickly knee-cap what might have been a traditional "leggy" movie for front-loaded horror movies/big OW blockbusters with the big returns up front and unnecessarily cripple the more modest movies that would ultimately bring in a lot more money?
 
How much are location holds determined individually by exhibitor/distributor/local theater manager based on performance at particular locations versus analysis of these broader gross numbers? We, the public, can get per theater average through BOM and other sites, but that does not account for per screening average. I've just been really perplexed following two markets I'm most familiar with (Chicago and Houston) and the variation (or consistency) among particular chains or how one theater (even from the same chain) will split times or movies vastly different than a theater 10-15 miles away. 
 
For example, on June 13th (Saturday), my local AMC (twenty something screens) had 43 showings of JW, like 17 showings of Insidious: Chapter 3, 15 showings of PP2, 5 showings of Beyond the Mask, two showings of Home, a matinee of Paddington, and some other weird choices. Mad Max: Fury Road, on the other hand, had screenings at 7:40 PM and Midnight. Other theaters in the area had more balanced showings of the current releases or really bizarre selections themselves. But the question is, does the location average for PP2 lump in those 15 screenings for PP2 against the 2 screenings for MM:FR for the location average? Interestingly enough, Poltergeist had a longer hold there than MM:FR, and of this week, MM:FR (using that because I paid the most attention to it) is not playing in the Houston metro area but is still playing in Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, and Lufkin among others. Is it suggestive that Houston was a very weak market for the movie or was that self-fulfilling based on theater managers in many local theaters giving it few screenings anticipating low demand for sci-fi/action (plus R rating) and dragging down per location averages that in effect, made the Houston market appear underwhelming (seems Regal/Santikos were still bullish on Mad Max — Cinemark and [most] AMC much less so)? I know on weekends (at least until recently), AMC is still pushing out 50 Shades and Paul Blart 2 on Saturdays in both Chicago and Houston.
 
I found the MM:FR per location averages interesting over the many weeks because relative to the number of theaters, its averages have been far better than movies in similar circumstances which would make me think it would lose locations at a lesser clip than other movies. To take AOU, MM:FR performed better two weeks in a row but still lost more locations relative to AOU each of those weeks per location average. There were others as well that have now dropped off (and now San Andreas’ averages are falling steeply) which means  either MM:FR is/was underperforming at those locations, or it must be seriously over performing in others. The other explanation is that locations dropped MM:FR because of commitments to other movies anticipating MM:FR would decline much more steeply. Is this what happened when JW cut the legs out of the competition by taking audience from MM:FR and other action movies (MM:FR wasn’t able to capitalize on spillover as much by adults due to lack of screenings by that time)? Universal could then capitalize by propping up the numbers of PP2 that weekend leading to a massive hemorrhage for MM:FR as more locations assumed it was finished while PP2 would hold longer? Did Disney use IO as leverage to prop up AOU in this manner as well? I guess I’m just confused how exactly the decisions get made, and if they are getting made efficiently taking into account rebounds/drops on a local market basis or by looking at the broader percentage numbers?
 
Bringing it to this week, should we expect MMXXL to hold locations much better going forward with an interpretation that it has legs contrary to the first movie, or will industry people view MMXXL percentage drops as being more attributable to poor release scheduling with an expectation of returning to more anticipated declines? In the latter case, if MMXXL has legs, shedding a lot of locations will just be handicapping its legs and more-or-less wedging its ultimate numbers where they feel they belong? I just wonder if a movie like MMXXL is underperforming/overperforming in certain markets as well.
 
For Minions, JW, IO, I guess, as it is with this era, that people are often forced to see only what the theaters give us. As anecdotal as it is, I know so many people that want to see movies they “missed” in their opening weeks (and are too lazy/inconvenient to travel to theaters further away) that get funneled (or peer-pressured) into the longer-lasting blockbusters more because of a desire to go to the movies than a real desire to see that particular movie. 
 
 
TL;DR Sorry, I didn’t intend to write so much. Gopher/RTH/BO people, how much do per screening averages factor into per location averages? Using MM:FR as a recent case study above, how do location averages and local markets factor into holds versus broad examination of the gross numbers/percentage changes? Is everything just more (at least at the major studios) about instant front-loading profit (necessary to recoup marketing/establishing instant franchises?) often times leading to premature/crippling runs for movies that would historically been more profitable on their current projections? Are there just too many situations now where decision-makers are forced into making commitments to movies based on skewed numbers/anticipated performance only to realize rather quickly how incorrect they were (like IMAX commitments for Tomorrowland and T:G) but in an intractable situation? Just really bewildered following BO receipts again after really not doing so much for several years. Thanks. 

 

 

Really great first post. Those are some interesting questions to ask. I totally agree that it's bad we don't get per-screening averages anymore. It looks like BOM just stopped updating those in November, so we can only guess at how many showtimes openers get, and how much retention other movies have.

 

Still, while I don't know anything for certain, there are a couple generalities that I think can apply.

 

First, once a movie has been playing a while, it's probably not going to be concerned with saturation. A film like MMFR, even while it's kept its per theater average up, is probably only playing on one screen at a given theater, and maybe only for a limited (under 4) showtimes per day. Even in such a case, anyone who wants to see the film can probably get a seat without trouble.

 

Second, prior to opening, theaters are going to be making assumptions about how much the films are going to gross in that theater. They'll make showtimes based on those assumptions, which could be poorly done and such. Later behavior for whether they keep a movie or not is probably going to be informed by that performance (but, again, poor decisions can abound.)

 

During Frozen's run, I started looking at its performance compared to new openers, and knowing that films newly in release send a higher percentage of the take to the studios than films that have been going a while, figured that part of the reason Frozen stuck around was that it was more valuable to theaters, even for films that might have been grossing two to three times as much. So there's a huge incentive to let a film with very strong late legs to keep going.

 

However, with that said, films with very strong late legs are very few and far between. Frozen and Avatar and Titanic might be theater godsends, but they're not common and can't be predicted. Besides that, a theater has to consider the math "Is this the weekend said strong running film drops off a cliff? Or is this the weekend hot new opener breaks out in a big way?"

 

Thirdly, despite that accounting math, it's possible that the box office take doesn't matter for many theaters. It's possible that the per screening average doesn't really matter at all. This is because theaters tend to make most of their money off of concessions. And in that case, it doesn't matter if they're getting a higher percentage from one film over another. What they really want is more people, because more people means more popcorn.

 

Something like MMFR has had good legs, especially in light of the competition, but it hasn't been ungodly, so it's pretty understandable (if a bit disappointing) for theaters to shed it. Especially when new openers are bringing in so many more snack-eating bodies.

Edited by DamienRoc
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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

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Fury Road was a tougher sell and a troubled production. It opened to ~10m less than San Andreas and has had great legs. More importantly from the financial point of view, it's set up a great platform for a very lucrative franchise.

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JohnnyGossamer Global Phenomenon

JohnnyGossamer

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Fury Road was a tougher sell and a troubled production. It opened to ~10m less than San Andreas and has had great legs. More importantly from the financial point of view, it's set up a great platform for a very lucrative franchise.

All true. Even still, hell of a box office spring/summer for The Rock. Furious 7 and San Andreas combined for $500M+ DOM and just under $2B WW.

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