Cruddy Weekend Estimates: A-M 24.77m, Pix 24m, Minions 22m, Trainwreck 17.2m, Southpaw 16.5m, PT 12.5m,

[Fancyarcher]

Ant-Man 10.2

Minions 9.2

Pixels 8.9

Trainwreck 7

Southpaw 6.8

Paper Towns 3.5

IO/JW 3.05

 

I was so so so so so wrong on Paper Towns

 

Dayum!

[redfirebird2008]

I think the Antman number (and the rest for that matter) show that the shootings had an impact on moviegoing.

WOM for Antman is said to be excellent, yet a 55% drop is a bit more than expected (on par with FF7, TDKR, FF7, Minions etc) so I think either WOM doesn't really kick in now, or the shootings had an effect that some under-estimated.

 

55% is the same as Guardians of the Galaxy.

[Mojoguy]

Ant-Man 10.2

Minions 9.2

Pixels 8.9

Trainwreck 7

Southpaw 6.8

Paper Towns 3.5

IO/JW 3.05

 

I was so so so so so wrong on Paper Towns

Paper Towns is frontloaded as fuck! Yikes!

[kowan]

JW will have 34m to go to Titanic after this weekend. Gonna be close. Labor Day could be what gets it there though, as I'd imagine a nice bump for it that weekend.

But that's in September, right? I doubt a few hundred thousand could get it to pass Titanic, nor help it at all. Universal/Legendary dramatically increasing its screen count is the only way it will beat Titanic.

Edited July 26, 2015 by kowan

[Jandrew]

The Paper Towns number. RIP YA adaptions. Digging its grave right beside Marvel's tombstone.

[Ozymandias]

BKB's gonna be at his most defensive tomorrow. Gird your loins

 

JW was just a warm up,  SW gonna be like this to BKB later this year.

 

[grim22]

Ant-Man 10.2

Minions 9.2

Pixels 8.9

Trainwreck 7

Southpaw 6.8

Paper Towns 3.5

IO/JW 3.05

 

I was so so so so so wrong on Paper Towns

 

So 25M for Ant-Man (about a 56.5% drop), 22.5 for Minions (almost similar drop to Ant-Man), around 24-25 for Pixels (horrible start).

[MovieMan89]

Yes, 55% 2nd weekend drop for a CBM equals like 40-45% for most other genres. It's a strong hold. TA had insane WOM to only drop 50% its second weekend, and Thor 1's second weekend was kind of just an anomaly.

[redfirebird2008]

JW will have 34m to go to Titanic after this weekend. Gonna be close. Labor Day could be what gets it there though, as I'd imagine a nice bump for it that weekend.

 

It won't get to 650 without an artificial boost of some sort, maybe a re-expansion like Avengers would help get it there. I don't think Universal will do anything and it will end up in the mid 640's.

[redfirebird2008]

Yes, 55% 2nd weekend drop for a CBM equals like 40-45% for most other genres. It's a strong hold. TA had insane WOM to only drop 50% its second weekend, and Thor 1's second weekend was kind of just an anomaly.

 

Both of those are early May when weekdays are smaller, which then juices the weekends. 55% is quite good for a July movie with much stronger weekdays performance.

[MovieMan89]

But that's in September, right? I doubt a few hundred thousand could get it to pass Titanic, nor help it at all. Universal/Legendary dramatically increasing its screen count is the only way it will beat Titanic.

Well look at what the increased screen count did for Avenger's labor day weekend. With the fantastic holds the movie has had its whole run, they'd be stupid not to roll it out in a bunch more screens for that holiday weekend. It's very much the holiday weekend kind of movie.

[druv10]

I just got out of Ant-man showing. It was very good with Rudd as the highlight. Shrinking scenes felt like acid trips.

[BK007]

Universal let F7s run die with a 600k weekend.

Pitch Perfect 2 down to 100k still being tracked.

Could have beaten Avengers WW if it was tracked how Fox, Disney and WB track their films.

[Mojoguy]

PT had a Twilight/Potter Saturday drop, except with only like 1/20th of their Friday grosses.

YA films. Terrible Saturday drops are part of the package.

[redfirebird2008]

Well look at what the increased screen count did for Avenger's labor day weekend. With the fantastic holds the movie has had its whole run, they'd be stupid not to roll it out in a bunch more screens for that holiday weekend. It's very much the holiday weekend kind of movie.

 

Uni just doesn't seem to care. If they did we would have seen them announce a record gross for JP4 during both of the first two weekends. Instead they went conservative and got nowhere near the media coverage out of it that other record breakers have received.

[grim22]

I have a feeling we will see both Pixels and Ant-Man with a 25M weekend estimate and a tie for the #1 headlines tomorrow with both falling below that projection come Sunday actuals.

Edited July 26, 2015 by grim22

[MovieMan89]

Uni just doesn't seem to care. If they did we would have seen them announce a record gross for JP4 during both of the first two weekends. Instead they went conservative and got nowhere near the media coverage out of it that other record breakers have received.

True. Though at any rate I think JW still has another 30m in the tank regardless. That's just a little over a 4x multi off of this weekend. Unfortunately, 30m will put it like 4-5m short of Titanic.

[DAJK]

Paper Towns number

This was such a hyped movie with my friends, and they all know I track box office. They will not be pleased when I tell them it did 1/4 of TFIOS.

[Mojoguy]

Didn't Paper Towns cost like $10 to make? I'm sure it'll make a profit with just the OW.

[Durden]

Ant-Man 10.2

Minions 9.2

Pixels 8.9

Trainwreck 7

Southpaw 6.8

Paper Towns 3.5

IO/JW 3.05

 

I was so so so so so wrong on Paper Towns

 

Hail John Green