MARY POPPINS RETURNS | Disney | 12.19.18 | Rob Marshall directing | Emily Blunt, Lin Manuel Miranda

[The Futurist]

Aquaman will be a massive VFX undertaking plus complex under water cinematography.

So 200m minimum is my guess.

All the superhero movies, the big ones at least, not the cheap-ass kind produced at Fox, cost between 200m & 300m+.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Source ?

 

Wan, water and trying to do a Star Wars underwater ambition must all cost fortune, but I am unsure we will know the budget of an Canada/Australian shoot, they tend to stay mysterious (we never ended knowing Fury Road cost for example).

 

Would still be one of the safest movie of the year, give me a 250m Aquabro vs a 156m Deepwater Horizon movie risk wise (or well 95% of the movies out there)

"Safe?" Um the big DCEU team up film that Aquaman was a part of only did $650m WW. There's nothing remotely safe about an Aquaman solo film costing $250m+. In fact, it's at least 95% likely to not be profitable if that really is the budget. 

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

"Safe?" Um the big DCEU team up film that Aquaman was a part of only did $650m WW. There's nothing remotely safe about an Aquaman solo film costing $250m+. In fact, it's at least 95% likely to not be profitable if that really is the budget. 

I feel like that James Wan Aquaman can easily do 500m WW, and being DC type heavy domestic. When was is last movie that didn't turned into a obscene printing money machine ?

Edited March 6, 2018 by Barnack

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Barnack said:

I feel like that Aquaman can easily do 500m WW, and being DC type heavy domestic.

How would 500m be remotely good for a $250m+ budgeted movie? 

[Barnack]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

How would 500m be remotely good for a $250m+ budgeted movie? 

Who said that it would be good ?

 

I used the word safe has in evaluating is likeliness to loose a relevant amount of money, Aquaman even at a 225-250m production budget still feel safer than the 95% of the 10,000+ movies of 2018.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Barnack said:

Who said that it would be good ?

 

I used the word safe has in evaluating is likeliness to loose a relevant amount of money, Aquaman even at a 225-250m production budget still feel safer than the 95% of the 10,000+ movies of 2018.

But wouldn't WB be virtually guaranteed to take a nasty loss on a $250m movie that makes 500m WW? Unless the marketing costs are already factored into that budget.

[Barnack]

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

But wouldn't WB be virtually guaranteed to take a nasty loss on a $250m movie that makes 500m WW? Unless the marketing costs are already factored into that budget.

Not if it is domestic heavy and if participation bonus does not start to kick in before break even, CB-0 point type.

 

From 2006 and 2014 of all the world distributed movie by Sony that had their accounting leaked, there is no movie that did 2x(production budget + talent participation bonus) that lost money except for Girl With a dragoon tattoo, that made 2.01x or something like that and had an 100m releasing cost.

 

Maybe it changed, but usually the rules were if a movie with a budget (say 30m or more) do close to is budget domestic it do not loose real money, if it double is budget worldwide it should break even (in the past doubling your budget was a big success, but now that the dvd went away and international is a larger share typically it stopped to be the case)

Edited March 6, 2018 by Barnack

[dudalb]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

But wouldn't WB be virtually guaranteed to take a nasty loss on a $250m movie that makes 500m WW? Unless the marketing costs are already factored into that budget.

Maybe not a nasty loss, but giver the rule of thumb in the film industry that film needs to make twice it's budget just to break even,it would be a big disappointment for Warners/DC. And heaven knows DC has had enough of those.

And what I have been reading is that little of Aquaman was actually shot underwater...it's all done with CIG and effects.

Much to the relief of the Warner's accountents, since shooting on or under water is considered to be almost certain  way to have large cost overruns.

The main reason that "Jaws" and "Titanic" went way over budget was the problems they had with shooting on and under water. The problems they had on Jaws with "Bruce"...the mechanical shark on which the whole film depended...have become a Hollywood legend, and made Jaws,despite it huge success one of the legendary "Bad Shoots" of Hollywood history. Even when the film turns out to be a success,people involved in a really difficult ie "bad" shoot have bad memories of it.

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, dudalb said:

The main reason that "Jaws" and "Titanic" went way over budget was the problems they had with shooting on and under water.

And WaterWorld, Speed 2, (some of those Pirates franchise giant budget stories ?) the track record is not too good yes.

[The Futurist]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

And WaterWorld, Speed 2, (some of those Pirates franchise giant budget stories ?) the track record is not too good yes.

You have no control over water, none.

[Deja23]

Quote

A top Disney exec told me flat out that they would be campaigning not only Black Panther for the big prize but also the upcoming Mary Poppins Returns (from director Rob Marshall), which he was raving about, particularly for star Emily Blunt. who he says knocks it out of the park in the role for which Julie Andrews already has an Oscar. Lin-Manuel Miranda co-stars. and he says there are a lot of great new songs in it as well.

http://deadline.com/2018/03/oscars-2018-guillermo-del-toro-gary-oldman-eva-marie-saint-analysis-1202311545/

[dudalb]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Gotta love the Disney marketing machine. The odds of it just being a coincidence that one of GotG2's most memorable jokes references Poppins the year before this comes out are probably slim to none. 

I would  make that none;no one accused the Mouse of being stupid.

And that Kevin Fiege really  likes Emily Blunt had something to do with that as well. If she had not become pregnant, she would have been The Black Widow,and she was a favorite for Captain Marvel.

[dudalb]

17 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

http://deadline.com/2018/03/oscars-2018-guillermo-del-toro-gary-oldman-eva-marie-saint-analysis-1202311545/

You need to have more then one iron in the fire nowdays. One prolbme BP Has is that almost a whole year woul dhave passed until the Oscar campaigning begins, and that is a problem.

[dudalb]

34 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

You have no control over water, none.

There is a saying in Hollywood:

 

If you are going to shoot on water, do a brutally realistic, pessimistic budget that assumes that everything that can go wrong filming on water will go wrong, double that pessimistic budget, and you will STILL go way over budget on the film......

 

There is a basic reason:Delicate electric equipment does not like water, or even a lot of atmospheric moisture,and even expensive water proof equipment often isn't. You waste a lot of time just waiting for equipment to dry.

[dudalb]

So Disney thinks that Emily Blunt st Poppins has turned out to be Practically Perfect In Every Way?

[WrathOfHan]

Aquaman is being overestimated big time. It will not make more than Justice League did, and going sub-200M is likelier than not IMO

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Aquaman is being overestimated big time. It will not make more than Justice League did, and going sub-200M is likelier than not IMO

I mean I get Aquaman isn’t a big draw and JL bombed, but I feel that it’ll at least get $200M. DC has their fan base and Wan can make something good. I just can’t see over WS numbers mainly due to screen space.

Edited March 6, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[YM!]

Now that I think about it in an average 12 screen theater it’ll be hard for all of them. Early guessing but

2 for Poppins 

2 for Aquaman 

1 for Holmes

1 for Spider-Man 

1 for Mortal Engines

1 for Bohemian 

.5 for Bumblebee 

.5 for Alita

and then the other 3 might go to smaller films and holdovers.

[WrathOfHan]

10 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Now that I think about it in an average 12 screen theater it’ll be hard for all of them. Early guessing but

2 for Poppins 

2 for Aquaman 

1 for Holmes

1 for Spider-Man 

1 for Mortal Engines

1 for Bohemian 

.5 for Bumblebee 

.5 for Alita

and then the other 3 might go to smaller films and holdovers.

lmao, Paramount and Fox won't allow that

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

lmao, Paramount and Fox won't allow that

Again so that’s 11 screens used up.