MARY POPPINS RETURNS | Disney | 12.19.18 | Rob Marshall directing | Emily Blunt, Lin Manuel Miranda

[AJG]

Just now, Jonwo said:

TBH December is a time where films can co-exist and make big bucks, look at Jumanji and TGS which did very well against Star Wars. I suspect Alita is DOA but the likes of Aquaman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Spider-Verse and Mortal Engines will all do good business in December even with Poppins. 

 

Poppins will EAT these films. It will be monstrous. Sickening. Disgusting. Wrong. But it will happen.

[Seth Irskens]

Here's My Brother and Mine's Reaction/Review to this Teaser Trailer! Hope ya Like it!

 

 

Edited March 6, 2018 by Seth Irskens

[Taruseth]

14 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

I said it before ... MP is kind of a SW monster in the imaginary of some societies like USA, Canada, UK, AUS/NZ and Europe. Like any person from any age you ask about Mary Poppins, they will know who she is and even sing part of its songs. I wouldn't be surprised if MPR made more than $1B ww. 

I don't know about that.

I could see it flopping too.

But right now I would say it does really well, as you said in the USA+Canada (I think $300+M is possible) UK (No idea, so I would say close to BatB is possible). Of course Aus/NZ.

I don't know about Germany though. Could go either way, like just $10M or more than $50M. Same goes for France. (I hope for the later in both)

And Japan well there everything between $20M and $200M is possible.

 

I think this movie won't do good in Asia or South America, because it isn't as famous as in Europe. It could so if they find a way to sell it (Especially in Brasil and  China)

 

Edited March 6, 2018 by Taruseth

[Avatree]

19 hours ago, Goffe said:

If it does 700m dom, maybe.

why would it be 70% domestic?

[Brainbug]

Where are you guys getting the Billion vibes from? Hell, i would be surprised to see it going north of 800M worldwide. I love the original but this seems like a prime example of needless sequel coming way too late.

 

Otoh, Beauty and the Beast 17 was also a lazy rehash and that thing exploded. Still, i have a very hard time seeing MPR beeing so huge.

[Hades]

Whats the trailer views looking like

[Premium George]

3 minutes ago, Hades said:

Whats the trailer views looking like

3.4m in 1 day. I think that's more than what samson did. Now I don't think this will beat samson but top 5 OW has a real chance.

Edited March 6, 2018 by Premium George

[Hades]

3 minutes ago, Premium George said:

3.4m in 1 day. I think that's more than what samson did. Now I don't think this will beat samson but top 5 OW has a real chance.

That's not a lot for a would be 400 mil domestic grosser. I am thinking COCO numbers for now. 

 

Trailer views can be deceptive though. You would think Avengers 3 would easily win the year domestic with its trailer views

[WrathOfHan]

Jumanji decieved me with insanely low trailer views last year (the second or third trailer wasn't even cracking 1M views), but 3.4M for a Disney sequel seems very low.

[Hades]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Jumanji decieved me with insanely low trailer views last year (the second or third trailer wasn't even cracking 1M views), but 3.4M for a Disney sequel seems very low.

At least it will soon pass the trailer views for that pointless Nutcracker film Disney are dumping in November....

[narniadis]

I don't get the huge expectations either - seems like it is just setting it up for failure.

 

200m would be a good gross in my opinion - larger by far than the last 2 Christmas Day musicals (Les Mis and Into the Woods) and until we actually start to see something other than the teaser there is nothing to go on but nostalgia.... then again Jumanji / BATB 17 etc.... so who the hell knows.

 

I just want a great film - one that could possibly even vie for BP - considering that Disney STILL hasn't gotten a BP win in the 90 years since the awards were created (differing reasons, I know.)

[MovieMan89]

4 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Where are you guys getting the Billion vibes from? Hell, i would be surprised to see it going north of 800M worldwide. I love the original but this seems like a prime example of needless sequel coming way too late.

 

Otoh, Beauty and the Beast 17 was also a lazy rehash and that thing exploded. Still, i have a very hard time seeing MPR beeing so huge.

It’s  likely to do 400+ DOM if it’s well received. Another 250m or so from the UK/AUS/Japan could happen. 350 from the rest of the world probably wouldn’t be that hard. Basically a really poor showing in Central/South America+China would be the only reason for it to maybe miss. 

Edited March 6, 2018 by MovieMan89

[YM!]

Not sold on $400M/$1B yet. Something like $350M/$850M seems fair. December is stacked. Aquaman can draw families but will likely do smaller numbers ($200M-$250M). Spiderverse still will draw families ($100M-$150M), and even the stuff that might not do hot will take screens. Not to mention there’s no PLFs or 3D for this.

Edited March 6, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Hades]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It’s  likely to do 400+ DOM if it’s well received. Another 250m or so from the UK/AUS/Japan could happen. 350 from the rest of the world probably wouldn’t be that hard. 

Likely, he says....

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, Hades said:

Likely, he says....

If it's well received is the key phrase there. This movie will be a WOM monster with its release spot if Disney nails this. LMM's involvement and a seemingly spot on casting choice for the title character gives me a lot of faith they will. 

 

Some of you should keep in mind the first adjusts to over 700m DOM, and even if you take out re-releases it's still over 300 in its first run. It has definitely been one of those very rare generational movies that gets passed down to a huge chunk of kids every new gen. At least domestically. And the UK/Aus will probably be even more into this than DOM. I think $150+ from both of them combined can happen, possibly even 200+. Then 80m+ is likely in Japan, given their affinity for Disney and musicals and the fact that the character is very known and liked there as well. 

Edited March 6, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Captain Craig]

Teaser was decent and effective. I've been curious and this didn't push me in the other direction. Looking forward to the first full trailer. 

[Valonqar]

I'm sold on 1B. It doesn't need ultra great reviews. BatB-level reviews will do the trick. 

[Eric the Ape]

I think the one thing that makes me hesitant on this making $300M+ is that, when compared to Disney's recent fantasy films that made $300M+, there doesn't seem to be anywhere near as strong of a hook.

 

Alice in Wonderland came out when Johnny Depp was at his peak of popularity, it was the first time since 101 Dalmatians Disney brought one of their famous animated films with a live-action spin (I know it's not actually a remake of the animated film, but it sold itself like that), and arrived as the first major 3D event film since Avatar, which breathed new life into the format.

 

The Jungle Book sold itself on its groundbreaking visuals, which was hammered down people's throats, and the marketing heavily pushed the film as being something that needed to be seen in 3D and IMAX. It also had critical acclaim.

 

Beauty and the Beast was capitalizing on 90s nostalgia, which is extremely potent (kids who watched the animated movie have kids of their own, or want to recapture something they love), and it also had Emma Watson playing another Hermione-esque character, which gave it a lot of appeal from kids, adults, and teens.

 

Mary Poppins Returns has none of that. Emily Blunt isn't a big name like Depp, it won't have awards-worthy visuals, I'm not sure if it'll even have 3D, and while it's still popular with the kids, it doesn't have the same kind of 90s nostalgia power that something like Beast, Aladdin, or Lion King had or will have. It'll likely fit in somewhere around $250M, and I think we should be happy with that number.

[DAR]

Bedknobs and Broomsticks>Mary Poppins 

[75Live]

first poster