X-MEN: APOCALYPSE | 388.5 M overseas | 543.9 M worldwide

[XMenSaga]

do you think a sequel has some potential to do a least a bit better, if Fox improves the marketing and some of these new young actors become more popular in the next 2-4 years?

[superweirdo87]

One issue is a sequel might have to deal with bad buzz from this movie, and that could hurt it.

 

But star power and marketing are not the things that would power an improved performance. A bigger issue is the movie itself. Arthur DeVany, an economist looked at box office grosses, and here is what he concluded.

 

The audience

makes a movie a hit and no amount of "star power" or marketing can

alter that. In other words, the real star is the movie.

 

The movie was not well liked or appealing. That really hurt it. Reviews also influence box office legs.

http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-quality-vs-box-office-grosses

 

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Old_Projects/kennedy.pdf

 

A better reviewed and more liked movie would do a lot. And it's not just selling the movie. The premise has to be interesting and compelling. Apocalypse was about how huge destruction and saving the world and audiences have seen that a lot.

Edited June 20, 2016 by superweirdo87

[Olive]

WW is barely bigger than Ant-man...With a much bigger price tag.

[XMenSaga]

This is one of those cases where one wonder how much a X-Men movie would make, lets say this same X:A for example, under the Marvel Studios name and marketing.

[superweirdo87]

One challenge to separating that out is that a lot of Marvel fans come because of potential for crossovers and the ways stories affect each other and the MCU. If it was like an MCU property that was separated out, let's say Feige wanted to give them an alternative verse and there was just the name and marketing, maybe 30 to 40M.  But, marketing might not raise grosses by like a hundred million dollars. And why focus on trying to sell a movie with mixed or weak reception? X-Men marketing has always been relatively weak.

 

http://www.vulture.com/2014/05/days-of-future-pasts-uneven-marketing-campaign.html

 

Also, you had asked about the actors becoming more popular. Research finds small effects of movies stars on box office gross.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/28/business/media/28cast.html?_r=0

 

But other X-Men movies have still fared better. Trying to make the cast more popular and marketing the movie better while maintaining this reception might not help performance that much if the movie is not better liked and received. X-Men marketing clearly could be better, but the movie itself was a major issue here. And rigorous research has established a relationship between reviews and box office, although a small one. Given that First Class and DOFP got good reviews, that seems like a place where things could be better to a slight benefit to box office.

Edited June 21, 2016 by superweirdo87

[superweirdo87]

6 hours ago, Olive said:

WW is barely bigger than Ant-man...With a much bigger price tag.

 

The box office for XMA is clearly a disappointment. I do think people can go wild with brand comparisons. The fact that lesser known characters are succeeding might mean that the playing field is much more level. Comic book movies are not for everyone. What is a name brand exactly supposed to get you? Recognition? Maybe, the nerd community is so powerful that less well-known characters can get heard? A big name that is credible and intriguing to more casual fans? Well, maybe, reviews, story, and WOM outweigh the brand? Is there something wrong with that?

 

This movie was claimed by Fox to cost 178M. I think it would be possible to do these movies for around 160M. With better reviews and audience reception, it should be possible to have stronger legs, and that should bolster the WW number. Maybe, a more intriguing premise and compelling hook or storyline, it could open better too. Though XMA did not have such a bad OW in many overseas markets. International debut was 100.8 compared to 121 for DOFP and less favorable exchange rates. Deadline estimated that Godzilla made 1.12 with 160M budget and 529M gross. DOFP was similar (1.13) because of the high budget and back-end deals for talent. One challenge is Godzilla did do better markets with more favorable takes and robust ancillaries.

 

This is clearly a bad performance, and there are things for Fox and the franchise to work on.

[A District 3 Engineer]

 

	Argentina	Change	Brazil	Change	Colombia	Change	Mexico	Change	Venezuela	Change
OW	241,456	-	1,296,289	-	472,713	-	3,499,663	-	64,609	-
WE2	139,541	-42.20%	964,661	-25.58%	356,039	-24.68%	995,062	-61.04%	47,965	-25.28%
WE3	78,921	-43.44%	410,265	-57.47%	148,006	-58.42%	477,378	-52.05%	32,457	-32.33%
WE4	39,157	-50.38%	186,132	-54.63%	63,943	-56.79%	242,321	-49,23%	24,642	-24,07%
WE5	18,196	-53.53%	57,651	-69.02	22,763	-64.40%	115,070	-52.51%	10,151	-58.80%
Total	689,608	-	4,216,508	-	1,526,785	-	6,760,732	-	335,505	-

 

 

[superweirdo87]

Thanks for the chart, District 3 Engineer. Interesting numbers, though discouraging.

[A District 3 Engineer]

On 19/6/2016 at 2:05 PM, A District 3 Engineer said:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$146,057,836	28.6%
+ Foreign:	$364,087,642	71.4%
= Worldwide:	$510,145,478

 

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$151,126,991	28.9%
+ Foreign:	$372,684,672	71.1%
= Worldwide:	$523,811,663

Edited June 26, 2016 by A District 3 Engineer

[superweirdo87]

They subsequently edited that to 362.3M OS, I think.

[superweirdo87]

So, it seems like the final cume is around 530 WW. If the estimate drops at BOM to 370.6 and it's seemed to drop. With 155 or so from the states, 370.6 so far, and 5.6 from Japan, it seems like the movie gets to 531WW. The movie ends it run in China this week. A major question is remaining markets and how much is left. Deadline and Box Office Pro suggested that it made 3-something million this weekend overseas. It seems like it made less than 1M in China, so 2 elsewhere. How much will it make OS in the remainder of its run outside of China in Japan. Like 1 or 2M?

[XMenSaga]

only 3m this weekend? oh my.....

thats really low. I guess 3-4m more overseas until Japan. Hopefully it makes more than 5m in Japan, tho. 10m is unlikely there? if the rest of the world is any indication, I guess XMA will have a hard time doing that number in Japan, right? oh well.....

[superweirdo87]

I was just trying to go conservative, and applied declines elsewhere to Japan where DOFP made 9.9 But, "First Class" made over 7M, so that may be too low.

[kayumanggi]

372.6 M overseas | 524.1 M worldwide

[A District 3 Engineer]

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$151,962,569	28.9%
+ Foreign:	$373,319,883	71.1%
= Worldwide:	$525,282,452

[fmpro]

3*Production budget is a huge win in 2016 for sequels..

 

[A District 3 Engineer]

On 6/29/2016 at 6:31 PM, A District 3 Engineer said:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$151,962,569	28.9%
+ Foreign:	$373,319,883	71.1%
= Worldwide:	$525,282,452

 

This weekend:

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$153,537,455	29.0%
+ Foreign:	$375,416,604	71.0%
= Worldwide:	$528,954,059

[picores]

Final update before Japan

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$154,499,734	28.9%
+ Foreign:	$380,770,546	71.1%
= Worldwide:	$535,270,280

[John Marston]

Not bad in the end. 

[A District 3 Engineer]

Thanks to China. 31% of the total Overseas gross.