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kayumanggi

X-MEN: APOCALYPSE | 388.5 M overseas | 543.9 M worldwide

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I think it will do less than DOFP because it will have much more direct and indirect competion than DOFP did.

 

DOFP basicly only had Maleficent as an indirect competion in 2014 as most blockbusters postponed their foreign rollout after the Soccer World Cup.

 

I feel it will do around $450M top on the foreign front.

 

I also don't see any scenario where it could do better than BvS here.

 

BvS did poorly but opened very big.  

 

I don't see this one opening as big and i see its legs shortened by competition, starting with China where it opens alongside Alice2 and faces TMNT2 a week later.

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Opens next Wednesday (May 18) in country, be seeing it on the weekend.

In 2014 DOFP got 7.2 million (4th place), ahead of Cap WS with 6.9 million.

The buzz is noticeably quiet, I guess people are generally still talking about (and seeing) Cap CW.

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I think it will decrease from DOFP.

 

DOFP was released end of May and had basicly no competition but Maleficent because it was the Mundial and i remember a lot of other tentpoles releases were postpone till end of June abroad.

 

In my theater that year, Winter Soldier was up for three weeks and not a single added day after it, then removed to put TASM2  that was released earlier in Europe and stayed in my theater 6 whole weeks then was removed for DOFP that stayed there...10 successive weeks in a row while weekly new releases suddenly slowed down as tentpoles were released a month at least after their domestic release because of the Mundial getting in their way to maximise profits.

 

Apocalypse won't have the same opened window to perform.  Alice2, Warcraft and TMN2 are all released back to back either days before it or days after it in a majority of markets.

 

I definitely think that Apocalypse will end up between the traditional Xmen ww numbers and DOFP numbers that is currently the sole Xmen movie to even reached and passed $500M worldwide  

 

I see $170 - $180M at home and $370 -$400M abroad.

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I doubt this can do more than DoFP. This one will be fighting the ongoing run of Civil War and Angry Birds and will be followed by Alice 2, TMNT 2 and Warcraft. Plus it doesn't look as different as the last one. It is a rather generic superhero film, save-the-world-from-bad-guy bullsh*t. Late legs will be impossible due to the Euro Cup. With China having grown, though, I think it can still make more than $700M. My guess is $225M NA and $495M OS.

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Sequel to big blockbuster established franchise rarely decrease OS. I don't see this as an exception.

 

600M OS (maybe more depend on China but it looks to have a bad release date there so not sure on the chances)

 

210-220M dom

 

800M+ WW total. 

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14 hours ago, Sam said:

Sequel to big blockbuster established franchise rarely decrease OS. I don't see this as an exception.

 

Let's see. Films that have decreased from immediate predecessor:

  • Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug
  • Spectre
  • Harry Potter and the Chanber of Secrets
  • Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkhaban
  • Kung Fu Panda 3
  • Shrek the Third
  • Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
  • Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1
  • Quantum of Solace
  • Twilight Saga: Eclipse
  • Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2
  • The Hangover Part III
  • The Smurfs 2

True. They're a minority but a sizeable one. The arguments suggesting X-Men: Apocalypse might join the above group do not lack credibility. Nor do the ones saying it will increase from DoFP lack credibility. It does tend to be the case that first sequels do increase over the original (only 3 first sequels are found in the above list). However, as companies make threequels, fourquels and so on, it gets more and more likely that the film will drop in OS. There were also several films on the list that had a marginal increase from their predecessor (within 5%). What I would say is that this is the most likely scenario for DoFP (+/- 5%), so the range is $488.2-$539.6M. My prediction of $495M is within this range.

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On May 13, 2016 at 0:29 AM, Quigley said:

I doubt this can do more than DoFP. This one will be fighting the ongoing run of Civil War and Angry Birds and will be followed by Alice 2, TMNT 2 and Warcraft. Plus it doesn't look as different as the last one. It is a rather generic superhero film, save-the-world-from-bad-guy bullsh*t. Late legs will be impossible due to the Euro Cup. With China having grown, though, I think it can still make more than $700M. My guess is $225M NA and $495M OS.

CW will do most of the business in the first 2 weekends. Problem is whether audience is ready for 4th major demolition derby after the refreshing Deadpool, the exhausting BvS & the satisfying CW? Surely fatigue mixed with promise of more intriguing choices like Suicide Quad & Dr Strange will have some impact. 

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I think this will please the international audiences more than the domestic audiences, it just seems like it's much more action-based than the previous ones and OS tends to like that.

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Belgium 18 May 2016  
France 18 May 2016  
UK 18 May 2016  
Indonesia 18 May 2016  
Ireland 18 May 2016  
Italy 18 May 2016  
Philippines 18 May 2016  
Sweden 18 May 2016  
Argentina 19 May 2016  
Australia 19 May 2016  
Azerbaijan 19 May 2016  
Bosnia and Herzegovina 19 May 2016  
Brazil 19 May 2016  
Belarus 19 May 2016  
Chile 19 May 2016  
Colombia 19 May 2016  
Czech Republic 19 May 2016  
Germany 19 May 2016  
Denmark 19 May 2016  
Dominican Republic 19 May 2016  
Greece 19 May 2016  
Hong Kong 19 May 2016  
Croatia 19 May 2016  
Hungary 19 May 2016  
Israel 19 May 2016  
Cambodia 19 May 2016  
Kazakhstan 19 May 2016  
Republic of Macedonia 19 May 2016  
Mexico 19 May 2016  
Malaysia 19 May 2016  
Netherlands 19 May 2016  
New Zealand 19 May 2016  
Oman 19 May 2016  
Peru 19 May 2016  
Portugal 19 May 2016  
Serbia 19 May 2016  
Russia 19 May 2016  
Singapore 19 May 2016  
Slovenia 19 May 2016  
Slovakia 19 May 2016  
Thailand 19 May 2016  
Turkey 19 May 2016  
Taiwan 19 May 2016  
Austria 20 May 2016  
Bulgaria 20 May 2016  
Estonia 20 May 2016  
Spain 20 May 2016  
Finland 20 May 2016  
India 20 May 2016  
Lithuania 20 May 2016  
Nigeria 20 May 2016  
Norway 20 May 2016  
Poland 20 May 2016  
Venezuela 20 May 2016  
South Korea 25 May 2016  
Ukraine 26 May 2016  
Canada 27 May 2016  
Sri Lanka 27 May 2016  
USA 27 May 2016  
China 3 June 2016  
Japan 11 August 2016
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