Monday #s: Spectre 2.43M | Peanuts .887M | Coopers .583| Martian .455k

[TalismanRing]

Daily Domestic Gross Mon, Nov. 16 2015

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Wide (1000+)

#	Title	Mon, Nov. 16 2015		Locations		Avg.	Total	Wks.	Dist.
1	Spectre	$2,430,554	-71%	3,929	0	$619	$131,411,839	2	Sony / Columbia
2	The Peanuts Movie	$887,364	-87%	3,902	5	$227	$83,190,758	2	Fox
3	Love the Coopers	$583,567	-71%	2,603	--	$224	$8,901,112	1	CBS Films / Lionsgate
4	The Martian	$455,828	-71%	2,788	-67	$163	$207,850,615	7	Fox
5	The 33	$451,288	-72%	2,452	--	$184	$6,238,554	1	Warner Bros.
6	Bridge of Spies	$343,448	-66%	2,688	-79	$128	$62,018,774	5	Disney / DreamWorks
7	Goosebumps	$198,894	-84%	2,805	-246	$71	$73,669,396	5	Sony / Columbia
8	Burnt	$117,461	-58%	1,614	-1389	$73	$12,840,244	3	Weinstein Company
9	The Last Witch Hunter	$115,496	-72%	1,479	-807	$78	$26,174,538	4	Lionsgate / Summit
10	Hotel Transylvania 2	$104,908	-84%	1,834	-440	$57	$165,313,663	8	Sony / Columbia

Limited (100 — 999)

#	Title	Mon, Nov. 16 2015		Locations		Avg.	Total	Wks.	Dist.
1	Prem Ratan Dhan Payo	$140,070	-81%	287	--	$488	$2,953,088	1	Fox International Productions
2	Suffragette	$111,497	-61%	496	274	$225	$2,681,002	4	Focus
3	The Intern	$93,594	-64%	855	-216	$109	$73,435,486	8	Warner Bros.
4	Sicario (2015)	$73,660	-67%	529	-193	$139	$45,288,971	9	Lionsgate
5	Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension	$68,451	-66%	785	-302	$87	$17,857,313	4	Paramount
6	Woodlawn	$49,223	-73%	822	-100	$60	$13,697,069	5	Pure Flix
7	Crimson Peak	$45,115	-62%	531	-600	$85	$30,874,090	5	Universal
8	Steve Jobs	$35,840	-64%	326	-95	$110	$17,416,093	6	Universal
9	Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials	$26,244	-77%	369	-72	$71	$80,512,748	9	Fox
10	Pan (2015)	$23,186	-79%	363	-145	$64	$33,623,370	6	Warner Bros.
11	Our Brand Is Crisis (2015)	$20,805	-58%	501	-1701	$42	$6,857,988	3	Warner Bros.
12	Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse	$18,685	-59%	403	-748	$46	$3,653,977	3	Paramount
13	Black Mass	$16,652	-54%	232	60	$72	$62,386,654	9	Warner Bros.
14	Everest (2015)	$13,730	-68%	196	-29	$70	$43,084,815	9	Universal
15	The Visit (2015)	$10,155	-72%	205	-65	$50	$64,961,310	10	Universal
16	Rock the Kasbah	$8,790	-46%	156	-45	$56	$2,867,481	4	Open Road
17	Minions	$8,340	-81%	206	-21	$40	$335,493,570	19	Universal
18	Jurassic World	$4,905	-78%	109	-30	$45	$652,182,175	23	Universal

Platform (1 — 99)

#	Title	Mon, Nov. 16 2015		Locations		Avg.	Total	Wks.	Dist.
1	Spotlight	$120,839	-69%	60	55	$2,014	$1,921,239	2	Open Road
2	Brooklyn	$44,991	-68%	23	18	$1,956	$872,958	2	Fox Searchlight
3	By the Sea	$8,463	-65%	10	--	$846	$104,713	1	Universal
4	The Man in 3B	$5,590	-67%	35	-1	$160	$212,661	2	Freestyle Releasing
5	He Named Me Malala	$5,277	190%	33	-24	$160	$2,545,260	7	Fox Searchlight
6	No Escape (2015)	$1,597	-70%	31	-33	$52	$27,275,709	12	Weinstein Company
7	Ladrones	$1,195	-82%	35	-4	$34	$3,059,562	6	Lionsgate / Pantelion
8	The Transporter Refueled	$468	-71%	13	-19	$36	$16,028,334	11	EuropaCorp Films

[WrathOfHan]

Peanuts is already below 1M. If not for Thanksgiving next week's holds would've been much worse. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Peanuts run is kinda disappointing. Oh well, it's doing OK enough.

[narniadis]

Peanuts is behaving normally?? Not sure as to all the doom and gloom, it's behaving more like Peabody and sherman and the Muppets instead of a leggy Pixar hit but that's ok. 

[MovieMan89]

Spectre only 0.2m ahead of QoS second Monday gross. 

[BadAtGender]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Spectre only 0.2m ahead of QoS second Monday gross. 

 

Kind of a useless comparison. IIRC that was already Thanksgiving week.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, damienroc said:

 

Kind of a useless comparison. IIRC that was already Thanksgiving week.

Yes, meaning Spectre is definitely going below QoS third weekend gross. But then above QoS 4th weekend gross. But then below QoS 5th weekend gross.

 

 

[BadAtGender]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yes, meaning Spectre is definitely going below QoS third weekend gross. But then above QoS 4th weekend gross. But then below QoS 5th weekend gross.

 

 

 

No, meaning that stacking up their comparisons day by day aren't useful. I swear, you're deliberately not seeing the forest for the trees.

It'll have some days behind QoS. So the fuck what?

 

What matters: how well it does in the end.

What doesn't: comparisons of small data points that don't lead to any meaningful conclusion.

Edited November 18, 2015 by damienroc

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, damienroc said:

 

No, meaning that stacking up their comparisons day by day aren't useful. I swear, you're deliberately not seeing the forest for the trees.

It'll have some days behind QoS. So the fuck what?

 

What matters: how well it does in the end.

What doesn't: comparisons of small data points that don't lead to any meaningful conclusion.

It does lead to meaningful conclusions. It highlights that its late legs may be even worse than QoS.  Its Thanksgiving hold comes later in its run so it's not as useful as it was for QoS, because it can't take advantage of the bigger grosses that are natural to a third weekend opposed to a fourth. Same will go for its Xmas and New Year holds. What it all means is that a multi much higher than 2.6x is unlikely, unless it gives us like a sub 45% hold this weekend. 

[Tau Ceti]

It's Monday was plus 10% on QoS, which is perfectly in line with $200M. You're looking for reasons to declare Spectre a failure but the data hasn't been supporting you.

 

Anyway, day to days only truly work when you have a same weekend opening. Watching the late legs of The Martian overtake Gravity has been fun.

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, Tau Ceti said:

It's Monday was plus 10% on QoS, which is perfectly in line with $200M. You're looking for reasons to declare Spectre a failure but the data hasn't been supporting you.

The data has been supporting me though. For my initial 175-180 finish range I figured it would drop around 55% for the second weekend, and it held not even 3% better. Woohoo. Hardly enough for me to adjust that range 25m+ higher. Remember, this movie is done grossing 12/18. It can make maybe another 10 after that. And even if it reaches QoS's 195m adjusted, it is still a big disappointment DOM just like QoS always was. 

[Tau Ceti]

In absolute terms it's already 21M better than QoS. There's simply no way it finishes between 175 - 180. 

 

Who cares about after Dec 18? What would that be under normal circumstances -- less than 5% of its gross?

 

So 195 to split the difference? A modest disappointment, sure, but not the once in a generation failure you've been describing. 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Tau Ceti said:

A modest disappointment, sure, but not the once in a generation failure you've been describing. 

 

 

Actually it pretty much is though. Unless it goes above 205 or so, it is still easily the least attended Bond domestically since 1989. That is all I've ever said about it, and if it finishes below that as is likely I will continue to say that about it because facts don't lie. 

[Dementeleus]

A (Movie)Man on a mission.  

[Ozymandias]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

A (Movie)Man on a mission. :D

 

This Movieman's attacks on SPECTRE are like the other Movieman's attacks on Obama.  It can't be bargained with, it can't be reasoned with, it doesn't feel pitty, remorse, or fear and absolutely will not stop, ever.

[Tau Ceti]

43 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Actually it pretty much is though. Unless it goes above 205 or so, it is still easily the least attended Bond domestically since 1989. That is all I've ever said about it, and if it finishes below that as is likely I will continue to say that about it because facts don't lie. 

 

Alright, I think these points have been well covered on the last two weekend threads and I have no desire to get into a last word debate.

 

But I will just phrase it in one last sense: your invective would suggest that Spectre is some kind of crazy outlier but it's not going to be at all. I don't know where you're getting your admissions numbers but the adjusted Bond figures are sitting on Mojo (I believe Telemachos posted them to you at one point). At 200M Spectre would be slightly below the franchise average of 215M and within the lower half of the Brosnan/Craig era. Again, a mild disappointment. A slightly under-cooked turkey. That's all. Not a franchise killer or a spectacular catastrophe. And taken alongside $150 in the UK, +$100M in China, and solid numbers everywhere else and I don't think anyone involved in this movie is going to call it a failure.

 

Now then, I suspect that absolutely nothing of what I have just said is going to make any difference to you . And perhaps we are standing on the precipice of an unparalleled cratering in Spectre's numbers. So please if the film finishes a dollar short of QoS, look me up and present a dish of tasty crow.

[stripe]

Being conservative

 

9.5M weekdays - 139M (2.4 - 2.9 - 2.2 - 2)

17M 3rd weekend - 156M (5 - 7.5 - 4.5)

9.5M weekdays - 165M (1.5 - 2.1 - 2.9 - 3)

13M 4th weekend - 178M (5.5 - 5 - 2.5)

3M weekdays - 182M (0.7 - 0.9 - 0.6 - 0.6)

5.5M 5th weekend - 187M (1.6 - 2.5 - 1.5)

 

After this, 13M leads to 200M which would be over QoS adjusted, the 13th best Bond DOM grosser. It can easily go over Goldeneye adjusted total! Not bad!

 

Keep in mind QoS had bad legs yet it grossed another 11M after a 3.7M 5th weekend.

[misafeco]

30 minutes ago, stripe said:

Being conservative

 

9.5M weekdays - 139M (2.4 - 2.9 - 2.2 - 2)

17M 3rd weekend - 156M (5 - 7.5 - 4.5)

9.5M weekdays - 165M (1.5 - 2.1 - 2.9 - 3)

13M 4th weekend - 178M (5.5 - 5 - 2.5)

3M weekdays - 182M (0.7 - 0.9 - 0.6 - 0.6)

5.5M 5th weekend - 187M (1.6 - 2.5 - 1.5)

 

After this, 13M leads to 200M which would be over QoS adjusted, the 13th best Bond DOM grosser. It can easily go over Goldeneye adjusted total! Not bad!

 

Keep in mind QoS had bad legs yet it grossed another 11M after a 3.7M 5th weekend.

Spectre won't have 17M 3rd weekend. It'll drop more than 50% IMO. I guess around 14-15M.

[a2k]

Specter's gross is similar to other Bond films and is not some catastrophe (in fact it's a huge bo success worldwide), but that it will end up at 2/3rds (less if you adjust Skyfall inflation) the domestic bo of the previous one is also worth noting. Skyfall might have had a lot going - 50th anniversary for eg - and it may be an outlier, but it did get a big audience for whatever reasons and had great legs. So it did increase the potential for subsequent films that Spectre failed to capitalize.

 

If 4 films of a franchise perform like this - 165m 170m 210m 200m, than the 4th one did similar to the rest and more or less matched it's potential.

But in this case, 165m 170m 305m 200m, you can say that the movie failed to capitalize on the previous one's success and a lot of money was left on the table.

[stripe]

1 hour ago, misafeco said:

Spectre won't have 17M 3rd weekend. It'll drop more than 50% IMO. I guess around 14-15M.

 

Why would it have a drop significantly over its 2nd weekend?

 

Maybe you are right, but this is Bond, a saga aimed to adults, so it should stabilize a bit, even with new competition.