Weekend Estimates (pg49): Mockingjay 101M | Spectre 14.6M | Night Before 10.1M | SITE 6.63M

[kells]

It's interesting to think about how this franchise would've done without Lawrence. I fully believe her rave reviews for the first film helped it cross over with non-book fans. Then with Silver Linings Playbook and her winning an Oscar, there was SO much hype going into Catching Fire. And now, at this point, she is the SOLE reason I'm even planning on finishing this series out. But I'll probably take my time doing so. 

 

A Hunger Games franchise that went with Hailee Steinfeld or Abigail Breslin might've stayed just above Divergent numbers.

[DAR]

14 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

Having seen GOOD DINOSAUR, I feel fairly confident it's not gonna sniff $300m. I also think many here who're already expecting it to be a Pixar masterpiece are gonna be pretty subdued in a few weeks. It's gonna skew young. Nothing wrong with that at all. But keep it in mind.

So probably the typical range for a Pixar film, somewhere in the mid 200's

[TalismanRing]

28 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Why don't people care!? Why don't people care about Katniss!?

 

They care a lot. A $100m+ o/w a lot. 

 

Just not $150m+ o/w a a lot anymore.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, straggler said:

Is this the annual Hunger Games overreaction thread? Will end up well over $300 million again. 

 

Hope you're right, but that would be a mini miracle with a $105m or so OW. It needs immediate great WOM to kick in and have a fantastic hold next weekend. Hoping for that. Or better yet, hopefully it will just go up a lot from early estimates today. 

[RyneOh1040]

As a general rule of thumb, it's a great number for a film that's fourth in a franchise.  Unfortunately it's not great for THIS particular franchise.  I think this really had a lot going against it, and I'm not just saying that in hindsight, as most of the predictions here seemed to be around 130-140.  Obviously the split hurt the two films separately, but added about 500 million to LG bank account.  As a business, I don't fault them but clearly it hurt audience reception and the 'art' aspect of the films.  I also think franchise fatigue and more importantly, YA fatigue has FINALLY set in.  Look no further than Divergent and Maze Runner to see it, just on a much smaller scale.  I don't know that we'll have a YA franchise reach the heights of Potter/Twilight/HG for quite some time.  Definitely not the longevity.  The source material for most of them just isn't there to equate to massive, four quadrant audiences that live and breath the franchise.

 

I also think we have to remember that Mockingjay overall is by far the worst received book of the series.  I liked it.  I thought CF was the high point of the series in both film and book, but nonetheless I thought it was a proper conclusion.  That is not the general consensus.  I know a LOT of people who thought MJ was a waste of time and a shoddy end to the series.  I think we do have to remember that because I do think it mattered in the end.

 

Solid enough result, just a bit underwhelming for a franchise that had flown so high.  

Edited November 20, 2015 by RyneOh1040

[Fullbuster]

16 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

Having seen GOOD DINOSAUR, I feel fairly confident it's not gonna sniff $300m. I also think many here who're already expecting it to be a Pixar masterpiece are gonna be pretty subdued in a few weeks. It's gonna skew young. Nothing wrong with that at all. But keep it in mind.

I don't see where is the problem with that, I could guess it just by watching the last trailer, it was obvious. What I want to see is the beauty of it, the environment, this friendship. It's not Inside Out, I don't expect the same depth.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, kells said:

It's interesting to think about how this franchise would've done without Lawrence. I fully believe her rave reviews for the first film helped it cross over with non-book fans. Then with Silver Linings Playbook and her winning an Oscar, there was SO much hype going into Catching Fire. And now, at this point, she is the SOLE reason I'm even planning on finishing this series out. But I'll probably take my time doing so. 

 

A Hunger Games franchise that went with Hailee Steinfeld or Abigail Breslin might've stayed just above Divergent numbers.

It would have always been bigger than Divergent given the books being way more popular than that, as evidenced by the OW of THG which I doubt had much of anything to do with her. ButI agree that J Law's casting was a stroke of genius and certainly elevated the franchise's WOM and rep for those first two. Can't believe I once championed Steinfeld for the role.  But to my defense, I had yet to see Lawrence in a film and Steinfeld was coming off an impressive Oscar nom performance. 

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, Fullbuster said:

I don't see where is the problem with that, I could guess it just by watching the last trailer, it was obvious. What I want to see is the beauty of it, the environment, this friendship. It's not Inside Out, I don't expect the same depth.

 

It's certainly a very beautiful movie, especially the environments.

[Fullbuster]

15 minutes ago, Goffe said:

in other words, TGD is a Pixarian disaster

 

nothing that some weren't already expecting

Uh no, from what I see that shoul be a beautiful movie with a lot of emotions and beauty. I'm totally confident in Pixar :)

[Lumos]

I've always thought people over-simplified the finale effect. The last instalment in a film series isn't going to automatically receive a boost just because it's the last film. Finale's do really well when the series is building up to one pinnacle moment....something the entire franchise has been building up to. Star Wars and Harry Potter are great examples. How did Anakin Skywalker become Darth Vader? Will Harry die or will it be Voldemort? Twilight and The Hunger Games never had these big questions....hence mediocre finale numbers. 

Edited November 20, 2015 by Lumos

[RyneOh1040]

12 minutes ago, kells said:

It's interesting to think about how this franchise would've done without Lawrence. I fully believe her rave reviews for the first film helped it cross over with non-book fans. Then with Silver Linings Playbook and her winning an Oscar, there was SO much hype going into Catching Fire. And now, at this point, she is the SOLE reason I'm even planning on finishing this series out. But I'll probably take my time doing so. 

 

A Hunger Games franchise that went with Hailee Steinfeld or Abigail Breslin might've stayed just above Divergent numbers.

I completely agree.  I really think it was lightning in a bottle.  Perfect star at the perfect time.  A virtually unknown actress (to general audiences), scoring this role, then ANOTHER franchise (Xmen), THEN two Oscar noms (one win).  It doesn't get much bigger than that.  Also the fact that she was (and is) adored by media and has the America's Sweetheart role on lock.  I do still think it would have done better than Divergent. I certainly think the biggest factor in CF increasing was the fact that the film had J Law as its star.

Edited November 20, 2015 by RyneOh1040

[Dementeleus]

Just now, Lumos said:

How did Luke Skywalker become Darth Vader?

 

 

(I know what you're saying)  

[Fullbuster]

 

1 minute ago, Telemachos said:

 

It's certainly a very beautiful movie, especially the environments.

As long as it doesn't disappoint in that area there is no way I could be disappointed.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Lumos said:

 How did Luke Skywalker become Darth Vader?

 

[MovieMan89]

How did Lawrence help THG get a $150m OW though? She was still relatively unknown by the GA, and reviews of her performance weren't that amazing to make the movie open to those numbers. The first was always going to be a big hit at the very least, though it may have had a Twilight 2.2x mutli or so without J Law and most of the cast and film delivering like it did. 

[Fullbuster]

1 minute ago, Telemachos said:

 

 

(I know what you're saying)  

It's a spoiler from SW7, he should be banned to a galaxy that is far, far away

[Lumos]

3 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

 

(I know what you're saying)  

LMAO! oops....i mean anakin. Hopefully nobody's too upset haha

[water]

I'M GOING TO SEE THE MOVIE

 

 

 

[Dementeleus]

3 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

As long as it doesn't disappoint in that area there is no way I could be disappointed.

 

As a complete aside: visuals are your primary reason for liking a movie?

[grim22]

The wildcard for next weekend is Creed. It is building buzz at just the right time and is getting good critical support as well (in addition to the "Can Stallone get Oscar buzz" articles which have done their job of hyping the movie)