TLK Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 We are unlikely to see a sweep this year but Lincoln is the only movie that looks like it can win all major awards. BP,BD,actor etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Gary Scott Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 After seeing it i would have no problem with lincoln winning 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acsc1312 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I'm surprised anyone under the age of 97 could think of it as a good movie, but whatever.Hey, I really liked it. It was a slight film, yes, but it was probably the most fun I had at the theater this year. I do think Smith was meh. I'm hoping for a Dench nom, though. She was great. Hell, even Wilkinson was good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 http://www.awardsdai...ar-frontrunner/Easy to see after Lincoln's OW gross.The problem with Lincoln is that it looks like it could peak to early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Argo is the one that peaked. I think Lincoln is very well-positioned. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Argo is the one that peaked. I think Lincoln is very well-positioned.Argo's peaked. I think that being still about 4.5 months out that Lincoln could possibly peak too early along with SLP. I'm thinking Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, Django, and Les Miserables are in a much better position time wise than Lincoln. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The last Best Picture winner released in December was Million Dollar Baby eight years ago. I'd argue the later release date makes it more difficult for those films. Lincoln is doing very strong business and I'm sure that continues well into next month. As for SLP, that's a whole other story: There's a lot of work to do for Weinstein Co. in the next few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pieman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Maggie Smith was great in Best Exotic, funny and touching. The film itself was also charming. Sorry it wasn't The Avengers or The Expendables 2. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I would love to see a blockbuster get nominated, I am tired of as-boring-as-watching-paint-dry arthouse films winning BP every year,Hopes for BP:The Dark Knight RisesSkyfallLes MiserablesSilver Linings PlaybookThe HobbitLincolnMoonrise KingdomZero Dark ThirtyDjango UnchainedPromised Land Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The last Best Picture winner released in December was Million Dollar Baby eight years ago. I'd argue the later release date makes it more difficult for those films. Lincoln is doing very strong business and I'm sure that continues well into next month. As for SLP, that's a whole other story: There's a lot of work to do for Weinstein Co. in the next few weeks.SLP got a headstart by premiering at TIFF (Toronto film festival). Les Miz and Zero Dark Thirty could be in trouble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 SLP got a headstart by premiering at TIFF (Toronto film festival). Les Miz and Zero Dark Thirty could be in troubleThey haven't been screened yet, and they're already in trouble? That's crazy talk. Why bother releasing movies in December then?I'm not a big believer in SLP's chances of winning. I'm not seeing it until the weekend and I hope to love it, but based on everything I've read, it's not going to have the kind of support needed. I think there's going to be a very vocal group of detractors, taking the film down at every corner. "Cliche" and "middlebrow" are going to be thrown around. There's also the box office factor: This movie needs to make money, plain and simple. If you have Argo, Les Mis and Lincoln all hitting $100M, it's going to have to post a big number itself to stay relevant in the race. That WOM is going to have to kick in hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The last Best Picture winner released in December was Million Dollar Baby eight years ago. I'd argue the later release date makes it more difficult for those films. Lincoln is doing very strong business and I'm sure that continues well into next month. As for SLP, that's a whole other story: There's a lot of work to do for Weinstein Co. in the next few weeks.At the same time, releasing in December allows otherwise iffy contenders to maxmixe holiday box office and minimize lukewarm reception. If War Horse and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close came out in November instead of Christmas, neither would have gotten a BP nomination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 You're absolutely right. I'm not definitely not arguing against releasing in December. I just think the later release hurts when you have a couple of front-runners already in place by the beginning of the time of the month. Lincoln is currently moving into that position, full speed ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 You're absolutely right. I'm not definitely not arguing against releasing in December. I just think the later release hurts when you have a couple of front-runners already in place by the beginning of the time of the month. Lincoln is currently moving into that position, full speed ahead.I think that Lincoln should've waited until December to go wide. It would've built up better buzz that way. It shoudl've opened this eek in limited and expanded into wide maybe 1st or 2nd week of December. All films since No Country have gone wide December or Later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I'm I the only one here who thinks the Master won't get nom for Best Picture? It opened well in limited, but flat-out bombed at $15M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 If there were enough people to get behind The Tree of Life, I think there'll be enough to get The Master in there. It's far from guaranteed, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 If there were enough people to get behind The Tree of Life, I think there'll be enough to get The Master in there. It's far from guaranteed, though.I'll put this out there but I do think that ToL was slightly more accessible than The Master. Simply because ToL was an easier watch than The Master. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I think that Lincoln should've waited until December to go wide. It would've built up better buzz that way. It shoudl've opened this eek in limited and expanded into wide maybe 1st or 2nd week of December. All films since No Country have gone wide December or Later.I think the buzz is hitting at a fine time. Maybe a little earlier than Artist or King's Speech, but this film has Daniel Day-Lewis and Steven Spielberg. It's a "heavy-hitter" and I think that goes a long way keeping it in at the beginning of the conversation. It's making a lot of money, audiences are responding and the critics like it. I also think the release date was fine. Open it limited this weekend, and you're starting at square one. It's going to make great money this weekend. It'll be over 50M by the end of the weekend. Does it get there that quickly without being in 2,000 theaters over Thanksgiving? Listen, it's still November so I'm not arguing that Lincoln is our winner just yet. I just think it's now the clear front-runner, and Les Mis (or ZDT) has to bring some serious heat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 They haven't been screened yet, and they're already in trouble? That's crazy talk. Why bother releasing movies in December then?I'm not a big believer in SLP's chances of winning. I'm not seeing it until the weekend and I hope to love it, but based on everything I've read, it's not going to have the kind of support needed. I think there's going to be a very vocal group of detractors, taking the film down at every corner. "Cliche" and "middlebrow" are going to be thrown around. There's also the box office factor: This movie needs to make money, plain and simple. If you have Argo, Les Mis and Lincoln all hitting $100M, it's going to have to post a big number itself to stay relevant in the race. That WOM is going to have to kick in hard.I could give you dozens of movies who had weak BO and made tons of Oscars.This argument is moot, tired,wrong and cliché.Get your facts straight please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 Current:ArgoFlightLes M.Life of PiLincolnMoonrise (Just a feeling that this will be this years MIP)Silver LiningThat is a whole lot of L's! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
