The Futurist Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Let The Great Fudge Commence ! 250M with Puerto Rico or go Home Disney ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CelestialFairyIX Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 $243 - 250 million OW, 3.75x to 4x multiplier, insane weekdays and weekends, and bolstered by the Disney marketing machine, yeah, pretty poised to hit $1 billion.... ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash Skywalker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 So,it does have a chance at Sunday record but when numbers come misses by a million or two and JW keeps the record. ohh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 (edited) 1b+ is gonna happen yo, I have no doubt. Edited December 21, 2015 by B J 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deedlit Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Just now, mikeymichael said: So, it looks like most people are thinking that this is gonna be a close battle with Avatar's final run. What kind of weekday/2nd weekend numbers would TFA have to get to look like it might take a run at 850, 900, or more? 40 mil weekdays? 55 mil Xmas? 165 2nd weekend? It wouldn't really need any of those to hit 900M. For example, something like 250M OW 35M Mon 35M Tue 35M Wed 25M Thu 50M Fri 60M Sat 40M Sun 20M Mon 20M Tue 20M Wed 20M Thu 30M Fri 40M Sat 30M Sun would be 710M after 17 days, then another 200M would certainly be feasible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveJaros Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I think SW is 50-50 to top JW, only 10% chance to best Avatar DOM. Just my two cents. I think this is heavily front-loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash Skywalker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 minute ago, SteveJaros said: I think SW is 50-50 to top JW, only 10% chance to best Avatar DOM. Just my two cents. I think this is heavily front-loaded. That....is why You fail & That.... is why you're wrong 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTF Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 3 minutes ago, SteveJaros said: I think SW is 50-50 to top JW, only 10% chance to best Avatar DOM. Just my two cents. I think this is heavily front-loaded. What makes you think that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moviesRus Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 3 minutes ago, SteveJaros said: I think SW is 50-50 to top JW, only 10% chance to best Avatar DOM. Just my two cents. I think this is heavily front-loaded. Wut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 (edited) Alright I'm home (NYC and back again is always fun). Some confusion: Quote Breaking down that 3D number we see 28% traditional 3D, Imax at 12% and 3D PLF at 7%. RealD 3D accounted for an estimated $78M of Force Awakens’ weekend at the bulk of its 14K screen supply. Of that RealD PLF hubs made $15M. Force Awakens in Imax stateside beat JW, $30.1M to $20.9M, at 391 sites. Per screen was $77K with 7 of the top 10 and 15 of the top 20 domestic locations being IMAX engagements. Those grosses don't match those percentages. 12% IMAX, but 30.1M is 12% of 250M, so it doesn't work with any of the given estimates (238 or 241-246). 7% PLF, but 15M is 7% of 214.3M. Also, this makes me question the attendance record. See the bolded. Quote Of all the demo stats and audience scores that we’ve gone through over the last three days, the most telling were those from Rentrak’s PostTrak indicative of repeat business in the days to come: 88% responded that they would recommend Force Awakens to a friend while 54% said Episode VII exceeded their expectations while 42% said it met their expectations. Of those that watched the film earlier this weekend, 95% of those polled said they knew five people who were going to come out and watch Force Awakens in the days to come. Force Awakens denizens also spared no expense to see the movie: 38% spent between $13-$15 to see the film, while 29% shelled out $16-$18 a ticket Uhh, that's REALLY high. Even if the last 33% spent $5 to see the film (obviously super duper low), that's an average price of $11.90, and there's no way >22M occurred at that price. Also, more likely the last 33% spent about ~$10.00, which would put the average price at $13.55. At 250M that's only 18.5M tickets. The other side of the story would be that this is probably the norm for mega-openers; I HIGHLY doubt that they were running at the average ticket price on their OWs (TA/TDK/SM3/JW/AOU/etc.). This means that it may be the case that no film has ever actually cracked 20M tickets on OW...but as long as we use the same scale, we should have at least a decent grasp of how they make rank relatively. Edited December 21, 2015 by spizzer 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clef Ment Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Can't wait for it to beat Avatar. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTF Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 3 minutes ago, spizzer said: ...12% IMAX, but 30.1M is 12% of 250M... It sure is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 minute ago, FTF said: It sure is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clef Ment Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 11 minutes ago, SteveJaros said: I think SW is 50-50 to top JW, only 10% chance to best Avatar DOM. Just my two cents. I think this is heavily front-loaded. You also said that BvS could top SW VII's OW so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTF Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Just now, spizzer said: Disney knew what they were doing with their underestimation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Okay I see low multiplier (low for winter) predictions being thrown around, between 3.1-3.4. Is there any reason to believe this will have worse legs than the first Hobbit movie. The WOM seems damn good then you have strong reviews and fans watching it 3-6 times. Is there any eveidence that the legs will be weak or average for a winter blockbuster? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noknobs Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This is a mortal lock to beat Avatar's domestic gross. Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTF Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 (edited) 2 minutes ago, grey ghost said: Okay I see low multiplier (low for winter) predictions being thrown around, between 3.1-3.4. Is there any reason to believe this will have worse legs than the first Hobbit movie. The WOM seems damn good then you have strong reviews and fans watching it 3-6 times. Is there any evidence that the legs will be weak or average for a winter blockbuster? There isn't atm…but when a movie has such a huge OW, some can't fathom a $800m+ dom total so they have to assume legs will be worse, etc. Edited December 21, 2015 by FTF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 minute ago, grey ghost said: Okay I see low multiplier (low for winter) predictions being thrown around, between 3.1-3.4. Is there any reason to believe this will have worse legs than the first Hobbit movie. The WOM seems damn good then you have strong reviews and fans watching it 3-6 times. Is there any eveidence that the legs will be weak or average for a winter blockbuster? The only reason legs would be worse is that it opened that much bigger. There's never been a film like this in December so it's a bit of a wildcard, but I do think it'll be Avatar in the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 7 minutes ago, spizzer said: Uhh, that's REALLY high. Even if the last 33% spent $5 to see the film (obviously super duper low), that's an average price of $11.90, and there's no way >22M occurred at that price. Also, more likely the last 33% spent about ~$10.00, which would put the average price at $13.55. At 250M that's only 18.5M tickets. The other side of the story would be that this is probably the norm for mega-openers; I HIGHLY doubt that they were running at the average ticket price on their OWs (TA/TDK/SM3/JW/AOU/etc.). This means that it may be the case that no film has ever actually cracked 20M tickets on OW...but as long as we use the same scale, we should have at least a decent grasp of how they make rank relatively. Yeah they aren't polling 8 year olds, which means the poll doesn't account for any child ticket prices. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
