Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

[bladels]

1 minute ago, Deedlit said:

 

I'm guessing Disney will want to release the Bluray and DVD while the iron is hot, and won't care about losing some gross in the process.  As I recall, early video releases likely cost Frozen some money, particularly in Japan.

Yeah, that too 

[bladels]

3 minutes ago, Deedlit said:

 

I'm guessing Disney will want to release the Bluray and DVD while the iron is hot, and won't care about losing some gross in the process.  As I recall, early video releases likely cost Frozen some money, particularly in Japan.

Disney tried to make Frozen miss $400m but 800k too late 

[terrestrial]

8 hours ago, theendsnotnearitshere said:

I was just randomly quoting the all time best Disney animated movie. I'm sure K1 won't mind, she's such a good sport.

 

Ahhh! I do not watch animated without having to watch it with neohews or son. As all of them are adults now = haven't watched an animated movie since a long time.

And the ones I had to watch then I watched in German = I think I would not have recognised it anyway...

 

6 hours ago, Blan Solo said:

When I saw Joy today, the audience was talking more about Star Wars than Joy before the movie started lol. Probably because the next three showings had already sold out by the time I arrived for Joy (a half hour before showtime)

 

I'd really like to know how much that helped the other movies. Including some of those might too have been sold out = might have even helped another small / new release?

 

5 hours ago, grim22 said:

Haven't been on much due to real life commitments keeping me way too busy, didn't even check the Star Wars OW numbers till 2 days ago. The numbers are insane, but I did expect much higher page counts on the weekend threads than we seem to have got. 

 

Take a look into the last weekends 1st post: rules about not discussing / comparing movies.... no spoilers obviously too = it was IMHO one of the best threads here. During the week... people still wrote in that way and so on

 

Plus a LOT of crashes or 1/2 crashes (as in can see but not post or...)

 

5 hours ago, #ED2-D2 said:

Wrong. Don't use "Insert Other Media".

 

simply paste the URL when posting the message and then hit Enter/Return.

 

The image will fit right in.

 

hmmm only works for graphs, Twitter based images, BOM / The-Numbers charts... and vids, but not for .png, .jpg for me

 

5 hours ago, Darth AndyLL said:

I can edit on IE.   Not on chrome or firefox.

 

In the deepest 'cellars' there are still parts of the IE that comes with Win 7 on my notebook, but IE is as far deactivated as possible and having the notebook still working.

I already deactivated Adblock... still can not really edit quotes. Only thing that sometimes works:

can delete the top lines, repeat.... till to the sentence / part I am quoting for. Nothing under that detail. Can not add a mark or e.g. a little sign to snip out a big picture in a quote, to try to make it more readable for mobile users, no spolier tag no nothing

 

Links to a post here at BOT: one wrong enter (e.g. to put an empty line above it) and it changes to a quote....

 

edit test

but the normal edit mostly works

 

I am using Firefox with some security add ons. With Opera a bit more editing is possible, but other things not = only using that in a real emergency

 

1 hour ago, rustyspoons89 said:

It will make it to 999,850,352... Disney will just leave it at that. 

 

my like is about Disney not fudging something like that

 

36 minutes ago, goldenstate5 said:

 

This.

 

The amount of people I've heard that are "waiting for the crowds to die down" almost rival the amount of people I know who have seen it. Add on the crazy repeats still occurring and you have a pretty healthy winter run coming for it.

 

Some seem to wait for less lines... and some seem to be snowed in and similar.

Might too influence the actuals for e.g. Saturday.

That is, what sometimes seem to fudge up early estimates, if those weather details worsen during the day and people living at other places might miss it

 

 

Btw, within the last ~ 6 hours I tried 3 times to post something / read up... = went back to my project in between and slept a couple of hours

 

Edited December 27, 2015 by terrestrial

[Talkie]

18 minutes ago, bladels said:

Disney will pull TFA out of theater if it try to flirt with $1b 

Remember that $59,982 OW theater average 

8 minutes ago, bladels said:

Disney tried to make Frozen miss $400m but 800k too late 

 

 

Why would Disney try to hold down the box office of its biggest films? 

[Harpospoke]

1 hour ago, ChiSoxRox said:

But those same crowds that are giving it such eye popping numbers are in the meantime burning off enormous amounts of demand. Yeah, people are still seeing it repeatedly, but at this point how many holdouts are left, and how many people are going to still be trekking down to see it in late January and February? The truly monstrous legs of movies like Avatar and Frozen are driven by relatively small openings and word of mouth causing people to go days and weeks after it started, once they've heard about it. With this movie, everyone knew about it from the get go, so we don't have that vast pool of people to be told, "Go and see this." That's making me think we might well see sharp crashes in January, as we've burned through such an enormous audience already.

 

 

I'm pretty certain you just broke some kind of geek rule there.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I predicted 162.7m in the Derby.

 

(but I also screwed up H8teful 8 as a wide release so my Derby is still toast)

[terrestrial]

22 minutes ago, Talkie said:

 

Why would Disney try to hold down the box office of its biggest films? 

they don't try to hold down... they pick a release date for digital download first (GRRRR) and than ~ a month later for their discs early on (the decision, not the release)

So if a movie still runs big in another country even after months they do not move the release date.

They also pull for whatever reasons sometimes movies still pulling top 20 numbers after a certain running time nowadays. I am guessing also based on preperations for HV release.

Sometimes even just before the movie would have reached a certain milesstone.

Plus they seem usually not to fudge numbers, I think sometimes they estimate wrongly a bit, as do all studios (might depend who does the work), but too often their estimates and release numbers are just short of a 'round' number, so when others seem to prefer the news / push for awareness via a round number like e.g. $100m they seem to stay often with e.g. $99.9m, hence the reason a few here make remarks.

In general their estimates were the 2nd best in releation to overestimation (for a reason?) in the industry, I didn't check this years percentage, so I do not know if that position is still accurate

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

36 minutes ago, Talkie said:

 

Why would Disney try to hold down the box office of its biggest films? 

 

 

Spoiler

Masochism. 

 

[terrestrial]

The German BO website, that was yesterday just $0.3m off says ~ $58m for Saturday with ~ $155m for the weekend = first trend for Saturday, 2nd trend for the weekend

[JonathanLB]

Even as a huge Star Wars fan, I would wish they could delay the home video release to let the film completely play out in theaters. I mean not to be greedy... but... if it has $1 billion and a chance to make an extra $10 million, I still want that extra $10M to pad it against future competition

[CJohn]

I am worried about @Obi-Wan Telemachos  

 

Are you ok? Why would you suddenly decide to see Terminator Genisys? 

[terrestrial]

10 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Even as a huge Star Wars fan, I would wish they could delay the home video release to let the film completely play out in theaters. I mean not to be greedy... but... if it has $1 billion and a chance to make an extra $10 million, I still want that extra $10M to pad it against future competition

 

My impression via HV = that might hurt the HV, take a look at CA Winter Soldiers BO, the other MCUs, running time (days) and HVs. Winter Soldier has a strangley 'bad' HV sales number IMHO. Might be also via nowadays didgital download impact (not added in those lists), but the ratio for GotG BO and HV seems better and that one got released later in the year

 

Edited December 27, 2015 by terrestrial

[terrestrial]

Same source:

Daddy's Home (~ $13.25m) and Joy (a bit under $6m) ~ down, the other three new releases seem to stay flat

[baumer]

Someone said that 58 mill for SW is a pretty good number if you think about it.  That's implying that there might be some universe where 58 mill might be some kind of a disappointment.  There's nothing to think about, these numbers are ridiculous and we have never seen a film perform like this before.  Remember when Avengers came out? That was pretty much the zeitgeist for box office giants at the time.  It's second Saturday was 42 million, a full 16 million less than TFA and that had smaller weekdays due to it being released in May.  So the demand to see it on the weekend was huge because not a lot of people could see it during the week.  TFA is killing the week days right now and still doing monstrous numbers on the weekend. 

 

Yes, it's okay to be conservative and say that a billion is not locked, but we do have patterns to follow and if you follow the 2010 pattern, which has served us well thus far, even if you reduce the coming weekdays a bit due to demand being met, the numbers are still going to be staggering.  Will it fall 20% on Monday?  I doubt it will be that low but then again, it could be.  There is a veritable excitement for Star Wars and this excitement for a film has never been matched before, not in the first 9 days at least.  So because this is still a holiday, especially in terms of box office, SW probably won't fall more than 30% on Monday and then follow similar patterns as 2010.  The biggest drop in the top 10 in 2010 on the corresponding Monday was 34.5% for It's Complicated, a film that was a nice sized hit but obviously nowhere nears as meaningful as Avatar, which fell 20%.  So imo, there's the range for Monday....20-34%.  

 

Then for New Year's weekend, again, it will probably not hold as well as Avatar as that film was building it's giant numbers at this point where SW has gone the opposite direction.  So I doubt it falls 10% on NYW, but coming off a 157 mill weekend, wouldn't a 35% fall be reasonable? So put that all together and you have the film at about 735 mill by the end of the weekend.  A billion is pretty much locked up at this point.  The weekends are going to be huge after the holidays.

 

Someone else commented that Joy dropped on Saturday so that must mean that WOM is horrible.  That's not how it works.  This is a film that opened on Friday, Christmas Day.  Anything that opens on Christmas Day is likely to drop on the next day, Sherlock Holmes did in 2010 and that got a 3.37X, so obviously WOM was pretty good.  You can't say something has poor WOM because it drops on December 26th.

 

Daddy's Home is a nice pleasant surprise and it looks to hit about 40 mill for the weekend.  If it has a 3.3 multiplier, that puts it at around 130.  Who saw that coming?  

 

The Troof and Extreme Athletes aren't doing too badly either.  Point Break is going to lose a piss load of money though because the budget is so ridiculous.  

 

Sisters is a monster hit and it too will more than likely challenge 100 mill.

 

The Big Short is doing nicely and we all know Quentin Tarantino has his fans, so they will show up for his movie.  Can't wait to see this when it goes wide.

[Vadermort]

6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Same source:

Daddy's Home (~ $13.25m) and Joy (a bit under $6m) ~ down, the other three new releases seem to stay flat

Can you give me the link ?

[Talkie]

33 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

they don't try to hold down... they pick a release date for digital download first (GRRRR) and than ~ a month later for their discs early on (the decision, not the release)

So if a movie still runs big in another country even after months they do not move the release date.

They also pull for whatever reasons sometimes movies still pulling top 20 numbers after a certain running time nowadays. I am guessing also based on preperations for HV release.

Sometimes even just before the movie would have reached a certain milesstone.

Plus they seem usually not to fudge numbers, I think sometimes they estimate wrongly a bit, as do all studios (might depend who does the work), but too often their estimates and release numbers are just short of a 'round' number, so when others seem to prefer the news / push for awareness via a round number like e.g. $100m they seem to stay often with e.g. $99.9m, hence the reason a few here make remarks.

In general their estimates were the 2nd best in releation to overestimation (for a reason?) in the industry, I didn't check this years percentage, so I do not know if that position is still accurate

 

Either Disney doesn't care as much about fudging for appearances as other studios or it reports straight numbers for the shareholders/Wall Street. Or both. Iger's regime seems very focused on what really matters fiscally, except when giving huge budgets to poorly-produced vanity projects like Tomorrowland and The Lone Ranger.

 

[baumer]

10 minutes ago, Vadermort said:

Can you give me the link ?

 

Deadline posted it

 

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-christmas-weekend-box-office-record-joy-daddys-home-concussion-point-break-1201672899/

[KATCH-2D2]

7 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

Someone said that 58 mill for SW is a pretty good number if you think about it.  That's implying that there might be some universe where 58 mill might be some kind of a disappointment.  There's nothing to think about, these numbers are ridiculous and we have never seen a film perform like this before.  Remember when Avengers came out? That was pretty much the zeitgeist for box office giants at the time.  It's second Saturday was 42 million, a full 16 million less than TFA and that had smaller weekdays due to it being released in May.  So the demand to see it on the weekend was huge because not a lot of people could see it during the week.  TFA is killing the week days right now and still doing monstrous numbers on the weekend. 

 

Exactly!!!

 

58m is bigger than AOU FIRST Sat, 5th biggest Sat of all time on it's 2nd Sat. It can even beat THG first weekend to be in top ten biggest weekend of all time. People who aren't happy with these kind of numbers might as well quit following BO all together because nothing else could ever live up to their ridiculously unrealistic expectation.

[Caesar]

12 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

Someone said that 58 mill for SW is a pretty good number if you think about it.  That's implying that there might be some universe where 58 mill might be some kind of a disappointment.  There's nothing to think about, these numbers are ridiculous and we have never seen a film perform like this before.  Remember when Avengers came out? That was pretty much the zeitgeist for box office giants at the time.  It's second Saturday was 42 million, a full 16 million less than TFA and that had smaller weekdays due to it being released in May.  So the demand to see it on the weekend was huge because not a lot of people could see it during the week.  TFA is killing the week days right now and still doing monstrous numbers on the weekend. 

 

Yes, it's okay to be conservative and say that a billion is not locked, but we do have patterns to follow and if you follow the 2010 pattern, which has served us well thus far, even if you reduce the coming weekdays a bit due to demand being met, the numbers are still going to be staggering.  Will it fall 20% on Monday?  I doubt it will be that low but then again, it could be.  There is a veritable excitement for Star Wars and this excitement for a film has never been matched before, not in the first 9 days at least.  So because this is still a holiday, especially in terms of box office, SW probably won't fall more than 30% on Monday and then follow similar patterns as 2010.  The biggest drop in the top 10 in 2010 on the corresponding Monday was 34.5% for It's Complicated, a film that was a nice sized hit but obviously nowhere nears as meaningful as Avatar, which fell 20%.  So imo, there's the range for Monday....20-34%.  

 

Then for New Year's weekend, again, it will probably not hold as well as Avatar as that film was building it's giant numbers at this point where SW has gone the opposite direction.  So I doubt it falls 10% on NYW, but coming off a 157 mill weekend, wouldn't a 35% fall be reasonable? So put that all together and you have the film at about 735 mill by the end of the weekend.  A billion is pretty much locked up at this point.  The weekends are going to be huge after the holidays.

 

Someone else commented that Joy dropped on Saturday so that must mean that WOM is horrible.  That's not how it works.  This is a film that opened on Friday, Christmas Day.  Anything that opens on Christmas Day is likely to drop on the next day, Sherlock Holmes did in 2010 and that got a 3.37X, so obviously WOM was pretty good.  You can't say something has poor WOM because it drops on December 26th.

 

Daddy's Home is a nice pleasant surprise and it looks to hit about 40 mill for the weekend.  If it has a 3.3 multiplier, that puts it at around 130.  Who saw that coming?  

 

The Troof and Extreme Athletes aren't doing too badly either.  Point Break is going to lose a piss load of money though because the budget is so ridiculous.  

 

Sisters is a monster hit and it too will more than likely challenge 100 mill.

 

The Big Short is doing nicely and we all know Quentin Tarantino has his fans, so they will show up for his movie.  Can't wait to see this when it goes wide.

Sherlock Holmes is a franchise, a movie like that is likely to have a higher percentage of demand on it's OD yet it dropped by a smaller percentage than Joy, it was also the record for a Christmas day and was far bigger than Joy's OW will be. Also everything around Sherlock Holmes increased that year.

 

Let's say you're right though, Joy follows the pattern of Sherlock Holmes, is that a success if it becomes one of David O. Russell's lowest grossing movies, you're multiplier would have this just reaching above 60M, I'd hardly call that a victory.

[Magic]

I don't want them to delay the Blu Ray release for TFA. It will be out of theatres where I am by about the end of January (not many screens where I am, so movies go fast), so the wait for the Blu Ray will feel like too long. Lol. 

 

It comes out April 20th here in Australia.