Dementeleus Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 4 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: Weather or not, $1b domestic chances have gone down a decent amount last few days. Yeah, it's touch and go right now (still probably has a better than 50/50 chance though). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilmBuff Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Episode 7 has made it fun following the box office again. Thanks Star Wars. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 2 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: Weather or not, $1b domestic chances have gone down a decent amount last few days. Somewhat yes but it's still more than on target for it. It will be at just over $572 million right now. By the end of day Sunday it will be between $730 - $760 million. After it's 3rd weekend Avatar made another $397 million for it's initial run. I don't see TFA diving $150 million below that for the remainder of it's run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amadeus Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Conservative numbers should be 635m by thursday and 700m by sunday domestic? Overtaking avatar on thursday or friday next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Just now, VenomXXR said: Somewhat yes but it's still more than on target for it. It will be at just over $572 million right now. By the end of day Sunday it will be between $730 - $760 million. After it's 3rd weekend Avatar made another $397 million for it's initial run. I don't see TFA diving $150 million below that for the remainder of it's run. But Avatar had more time in the cinemas... nowadays the didgital / disc release is earlier SW 7 = 15 March and ... 8 or 9 April for the discs (out of my head!?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 2 minutes ago, terrestrial said: But Avatar had more time in the cinemas... nowadays the didgital / disc release is earlier SW 7 = 15 March and ... 8 or 9 April for the discs (out of my head!?) True but by then it will have 95% - 97% (roughly) of it's maximum box office. It might leave $10 to $20 million on the table but I doubt that will make a measureable difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daxtreme Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 6 minutes ago, Amadeus said: Conservative numbers should be 635m by thursday and 700m by sunday domestic? Overtaking avatar on thursday or friday next week? That's being insanely conservative, with a $65 M week-end and insane week day drops. I would say Star Wars has virtually no chance of dropping more than 50% next week-end, not with its current word of mouth, so a $75M week-end is the floor I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 1 minute ago, VenomXXR said: Somewhat yes but it's still more than on target for it. It will be at just over $572 million right now. By the end of day Sunday it will be between $730 - $760 million. After it's 3rd weekend Avatar made another $397 million for it's initial run. I don't see TFA diving $150 million below that for the remainder of it's run. Stop comparing TFA to Avatar, jeeze how many times does this have to be repeated. Especially when we are discussing post holiday legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 8 minutes ago, Amadeus said: Conservative numbers should be 635m by thursday and 700m by sunday domestic? Overtaking avatar on thursday or friday next week? That would be extremely conservative after a $31+ million Monday. It should be atleast $730 million by the end of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Saw Joy today. I thought the first 20 minutes were a mess. Thought the rest of it was quite awesome. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 2 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: Stop comparing TFA to Avatar, jeeze how many times does this have to be repeated. Especially when we are discussing post holiday legs. It isn't perfect, but Avatar is by far the best comparison to TFA's legs. Not even LOTR had the same kind of holds TFA is enjoying. So no, no one's going to stop comparing the two, because it wouldn't make sense to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Well no one knows what post holiday legs are going to look like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: Stop comparing TFA to Avatar, jeeze how many times does this have to be repeated. Especially when we are discussing post holiday legs. You can repeat it until you're blue in the face but since Avatar is the domestic champion (which TFA is about to overtake) and they where released at the same time 6 years apart, Avatar is the only comparison you can make to it. Since I have no other basis of comparison, how else would you like me to illustrate that TFA is on pace for and likely to pass $1 billion? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daxtreme Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 5 minutes ago, LinksterAC said: It isn't perfect, but Avatar is by far the best comparison to TFA's legs. Not even LOTR had the same kind of holds TFA is enjoying. So no, no one's going to stop comparing the two, because it wouldn't make sense to. Indeed. Taking Return of the King for example, after its New-Year's Week-end (Jan 4), it was sitting at $290M, which is 77% of its total domestic gross. Transposing that to Star Wars, we get ~730/0.77 = ~$950M. It might even be more if Star Wars ends up at 740 or 750 on Jan 3 And honestly, Star Wars hasn't had drops comparable to ROTK in a single day so far, so... $950M is the floor I think. Or at the very least 900 What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moviedweeb Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 26 minutes ago, jandrew said: ThrSo when studios are closed for these holidays, does that mean no production is going on either? Or do just execs get off while the other peasants have to work? Various studio productions will shoot through the holidays - including thanksgiving - but the industry as a whole shuts down from 12/18 -1/4. That is not just for agents, casting directors, executives etc.. but all assistants and personnel working at the major studios, agencies, casting offices etc... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 (edited) 4 hours ago, K1Rey said: Is that so? Report it to us and we'll see what we can do to help you. You can do so here: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/support/ is is anyone else having the same issue? I just read this. I am also having the same problem. 3 hours ago, misterchief81 said: Yeah. Same for me. It goes back or forward to that page, but the actual posts on the page never load. But if I hit the refresh button on safari, everything on that page loads normally. Exactly this. Btw looks like I can edit again!! Edited December 29, 2015 by Infernus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I'm thinking it will end up mid-900s. It would be awesome to see $1B, I just feel the post-holiday legs will be relatively weak. Would be very happy to be proven wrong. Though with Disney and milestones, this will probably end up grossing $997.8m and they won't fudge it over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 In 2009, nothing in the top 15, which had been playing for 3 weeks or more, dropped more than 28.5%. And that was the movie Nine, which I cant' recall much about, but I think it was a musical.....nothing else dropped more than 15% and there were 5 of the 13 films that saw increases. So if you want to go out on a limb I don't think SW is going to drop more than 28% this weekend, and will probably have an insanely good hold. Now let's use a film like New Moon....not a great comparison except that it has a massive built in audience. If you use it as a model for this week, then SW would do: Tues: 31.4 Wed: 32.65 Thurs: 21.5 Friday: 43.0 Sat: 45.55 Sun: 26.0 That's 114.55 mill weekend. And that is my prediction.....110-114 mill. That's a 24% drop. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Just now, VenomXXR said: You can repeat it until you're blue in the face but since Avatar is the domestic champion (which TFA is about to overtake) and they where released at the same time 6 years apart, Avatar is the only comparison you can make to it. Since I have no other basis of comparison, how else would you like me to illustrate that TFA is on pace for and likely to pass $1 billion? The holds between the 2 have already started to diverge significantly & that will accelerate this week. It's that simple unless you are in the bad weather camp then lol I can't help you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amadeus Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 1 hour ago, VenomXXR said: That would be extremely conservative after a $31+ million Monday. It should be atleast $730 million by the end of the weekend. Thus snow white is finally going down. 10 Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs Dis. $909,060,000 $184,925,486 1937^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
