Ethan Hunt Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 27 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said: discussion of family: my grandmother saying that Alvin was a better movie than SW7, what can I say.......... That seems more reasonable than saying Cars 2 is better than KFP2 TBH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I still fail to see how a 40% drop after a 149m Christmas weekend would be bad? With numbers that huge (especially 247.9m) so much demand is burned off. It only indicates that a very large amount of people have already seen the film within 2 weeks. We have no idea what the modern box office cap for a movie was, especially since incredibly leggy runs like Titanic and Avatar are slowly becoming extinct due to a variety of reasons. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vadermort Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 What's the 3rd weekend record for OS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 1 minute ago, The Panda Menace said: I still fail to see how a 40% drop after a 149m Christmas weekend would be bad? With numbers that huge (especially 247.9m) so much demand is burned off. It only indicates that a very large amount of people have already seen the film within 2 weeks. We have no idea what the modern box office cap for a movie was, especially since incredibly leggy runs like Titanic and Avatar are slowly becoming extinct due to a variety of reasons. It's only bad if you were expecting this movie to make north of $1.1B domestically. So, in other words, it's not bad at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, LinksterAC said: Possible, but unlikely. It will eclipse $1B OS without China. It's showing very good legs internationally, and outpacing its already insane domestic legs (for an opener of this size). I was thinking $1.1B domestic, $1.2B (minus China) OS, but TFA's drops are a little higher than I anticipated on the domestic front. I think it gets to $1B, but stalls out there. Internationally, $1.1B seems like a safe bet, without China. With a weak China, you're looking at $1.2B, and Titanic is still a goner. It will have to be a gigantic flop in China not to get over Titanic WW. I don't think it will make $1.1b Dom! It's currently at 49% DOM, 51% OS. At 49% DOM share (Highest): 950m DOM -> 988 OS / 1938m WW, 248m needed in China. 1000m DOM ->1041 OS / 2041 WW, 145m needed in China. At 46% Dom Share (Lowest): 950m Dom -> 1115 OS / 2065m WW, 121m needed in China 1000 Dom -> 1173 OS / 2173m WW, 8m needed in China. It's very possible it doesn't beat titanic WW right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Vadermort said: What's the 3rd weekend record for OS ? 136m Avatar This was before China also, China joins Avatar week 4 and it makes 150.5m. Edited January 3, 2016 by IronJimbo 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashMaster659 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I think that since the holidays are over, the demand will be more concentrated toward the weekend for obvious reasons (kids back in school, people going back to work). This could deflate the drop next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 (edited) 4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: I don't think it will make $1.1b Dom! It's currently at 49% DOM, 51% OS. At 49% DOM share (Highest): 950m DOM -> 988 OS / 1938m WW, 248m needed in China. 1000m DOM ->1041 OS / 2041 WW, 145m needed in China. At 46% Dom Share (Lowest): 950m Dom -> 1115 OS / 2065m WW, 121m needed in China 1000 Dom -> 1173 OS / 2173m WW, 8m needed in China. It's very possible it doesn't beat titanic WW right now. Keep in mind one reason OS is lower % wise right now is because of holidays, where a lot of theaters are closed overseas. Just look at the estimates for Sat/Sun vs domestic, it's 25% higher OS. The OS drop from last weekend to this one was only 30%, compared to a 40% drop domestic. Edited January 3, 2016 by VenomXXR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1Robert1 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: About the same. TFA is already up $20 million on Avatar in January after this weekend. This coming week TFA will do a little better during the week and have a little better weekend. After that Avatar should start outpacing it in daily totals. Avatar did $312 million in January, my model for TFA is $310 million including this weekend. So in January TFA will have 10 days better than Avatar, and Avatar will have 21 days better than TFA, and in the end of the month both films will be around 312 mln, isn't that a little bit to optimistic for TFA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 1 minute ago, IronJimbo said: This was before China also, China joins Avatar week 4 and it makes 150.5m. I didn't bother to look it up, but if that China number is an OW number than you use the wrong combinations. It's mot about the release date, you have to add up each country's OW, for OS OW, each 2nd WE for 2nd WE OS,... You ask tons of question all over the forum, inlc International, pick pices here and thre and throw those around... but sadly in a really not correct way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 1 minute ago, VenomXXR said: Keep in mind one reason OS is lower % wise right now is because of holidays, where a lot of theaters are closed overseas. Just look at the estimates for Sat/Sun vs domestic, it's 25% higher OS. Yes I think the 49% Domestic share will drop, but below 46% seems a bit much. As I said with 46% a 1b Domestic will give a 1.17b Over Seas, that's 170m! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 1 minute ago, IronJimbo said: I don't think it will make $1.1b Dom! It's currently at 49% DOM, 51% OS. At 49% DOM share (Highest): 950m DOM -> 988 OS / 1938m WW, 248m needed in China. 1000m DOM ->1041 OS / 2041 WW, 145m needed in China. At 46% Dom Share (Lowest): 950m Dom -> 1115 OS / 2065m WW, 121m needed in China 1000 Dom -> 1173 OS / 2173m WW, 8m needed in China. It's very possible it doesn't beat titanic WW right now. I agree, I don't think it gets to $1.1B anymore, but it's likely to get to $1B. It's possible it doesn't beat Titanic, but not very possible. This last weekend the OS to DOM split was 52 to 48. That's a holiday weekend that's usually slower internationally than it is domestically. I expect to the OS to DOM gap to broaden (minus China) over the coming weeks and settle around 52 to 48. At $1B domestically, that $1.08B internationally, and you need about $100M from China for Titanic to go down. In other words, it needs to be a pretty colossal flop in China to miss that mark. I just don't see it. Again, it's possible, just not "very possible." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 BoxOffice @BoxOffice SPECTRE: $667.0M Overseas Total / $864.8M Global Total #Spectre 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Just now, 1Robert1 said: So in January TFA will have 10 days better than Avatar, and Avatar will have 21 days better than TFA, and in the end of the month both films will be around 312 mln, isn't that a little bit to optimistic for TFA? Not really. It's a 55% drop for the next 7 days over the previous 7, then a 35% drop every proceeding week (minus the MLK holiday). Pretty standard numbers. Remember we aren't dealing with $300 million weeks anymore. When I say Avatar will start doing better, I mean $3.3 million to $3 million kind of thing. TFA will have a $30 million buffer for the month after next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 1 minute ago, terrestrial said: I didn't bother to look it up, but if that China number is an OW number than you use the wrong combinations. It's mot about the release date, you have to add up each country's OW, for OS OW, each 2nd WE for 2nd WE OS,... You ask tons of question all over the forum, inlc International, pick pices here and thre and throw those around... but sadly in a really not correct way From bom, you're right you didn't bother. Jan. 1–3 $136,300,000 Jan. 8–10 $150,500,000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 BoxOffice @BoxOffice HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 2: $294.0M Overseas Total / $461.8M Global Total #HotelTransylvania2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GOOSEBUMPS: $41.7M Overseas Total / $120.3M Global Total #Goosebumps — BoxOffice (@BoxOffice) January 3, 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 THE PEANUTS MOVIE: $77.1M Overseas Total / $205.9M Global Total #ThePeanutsMovie — BoxOffice (@BoxOffice) January 3, 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caladbolg Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Quote As for the weekend itself, don't be surprised to see Star Wars jump up a few million. Rival studios project the weekend to be around $91 million, which would give it the largest January weekend of all-time. Disney is most likely being conservative with their numbers, estimating a rather steep 43.6% Sunday drop. Kinda what some of us are feeling here as well about Sunday. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4140&p=.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: From bom, you're right you didn't bother. Jan. 1–3 $136,300,000 Jan. 8–10 $150,500,000 You use release date calendar details, exactly like I assumed = not the correct numbers, you need per country OW,... 2nd WE, ... details added up = for each Weekend an own chart to collect per country what they made at weekend 1, WE 2,..., the sum of ech chart are the OS per weekend numbers. It's a lot of work, but doable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
