Faningo-com Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 TFA can drop 42.5-43 % each week for the next 20 weeks and it would still hit $1 billion. There is nothing stopping it from reaching $1 billion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) 9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: I don't understand how people can bet against this. In what world will James Cameron fail and shit the bed, I can't see how it will happen. Oh and Star Wars wouldn't dare open on Avatar weekend, they care about money too much. 1. I know people (US) who loved the visuals, a lot of the ideas, but will never watch Avatar 2 out of religious reasons. Till that discussions at another movies forum (not IMDb). Till then all arguments... of them sounded for years like having a balanced POV about movies. But the religion part made them spit fire. I do not understand it, but I accept those POVs exist too. You'll never know about what ppl can get enraged about, including mothers managed to surpress the real (without the edits) Anne Frank's Diary to get accepted (insert: as school reading material for mid-teens +) in at least one state in the USA 2. I think such formulations like 'they wouldn't dare...' either biased, not thought through, or... . Business decisions have nothing to do with 'dare', but with calculation models. Edited January 2, 2016 by terrestrial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Faningo-com said: TFA can drop 42.5-43 % each week for the next 20 weeks and it would still hit $1 billion. It'll drop much more than 42.5-43 % next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Faningo-com said: TFA can drop 42.5-43 % each week for the next 20 weeks and it would still hit $1 billion. There is nothing stopping it from reaching $1 billion. It could probably drop 42% each week for the next 20 trillion weeks and still hit $1 billion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faningo-com Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Just now, Elessar said: It'll drop much more than 42.5-43 % next week. Do you mean this week? or its 4th week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The week that starts this monday (JAN 4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faningo-com Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Elessar said: The week that starts this monday (JAN 4). Aren't box office weeks counted from Fri-Thur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Just now, Faningo-com said: Aren't box office weeks counted from Fri-Thur? It's about next calendar week people are back to work and school and as such starting Monday we will see deeper drops than during the general holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, terrestrial said: 1. I know people (US) who loved the visuals, a lot of the ideas, but will never watch Avatar 2 out of religious reasons. Till that discussions at another movies forum (not IMDb). Till then all arguments... of them sounded for years like having a balanced POV about movies. But the religion part made them spit fire. I do not understand it, but I accept those POVs exist too. You'll never know about what ppl can get enraged about, including mothers managed to surpress the real (without the edits) Anne Frank's Diary to get accepted (insert: as school reading material for mid-teens +) in at least one state in the USA 2. I think such formulations like 'they wouldn't dare...' either biased, not thought through, or... . Business decisions have nothing to do with 'dare', but with calculation models. I don't understand the religious reasons, you mean like Aliens and Evolution? Why would they go watch any Science Fiction if thats the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladels Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 1 hour ago, TalismanRing said: Against, JW and TA, TFA has had a great advantage of 2 weeks of X-Mas and NYE holidays when many adults as well as teens and children are home. Come Monday they all go back to school and work. Whereas at this point in their runs it was mid May for TA (some school out) and the start of July for JW (all school out). That why i throw in ROTK, it holds better than TA, JW even when it exited holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) 18 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: I don't understand the religious reasons, you mean like Aliens and Evolution? Why would they go watch any Science Fiction if thats the case. Their reasoning was that Cameron added an additional god(dess) to the only god in a way to similar too our mother earth (added: and they said there is only one god...). They love Sci-Fi.... in general. As said, I do not understand that myself. BUT: enough OT, here is the BO per day thread and neither the Avatar 1 nor the Avatar 2 thread,... something you seem to forget sometines and I am letting myself too often get sucked into edit: and please shorten quotes! Edited January 2, 2016 by terrestrial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faningo-com Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 1 minute ago, terrestrial said: It's about next calendar week people are back to work and school and as such starting Monday we will see deeper drops than during the general holiday season. Dec 18-24: 1 WEEK = $390,856,054 Dec 25-31: 2 WEEK = $261,109,529 33.20% Jan 1-8: 3 WEEK = $148,832,432 43.00 % $148,8M seems very low, especially when coming off a $95-100M weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Faningo-com said: Dec 18-24: 1 WEEK = $390,856,054 Dec 25-31: 2 WEEK = $261,109,529 33.20% Jan 1-8: 3 WEEK = $148,832,432 43.00 % $148,8M seems very low, especially when coming off a $95-100M weekend. More than 50m in 4 days(Mon-Thur) is very low? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, bladels said: That why i throw in ROTK, it holds better than TA, JW even when it exited holidays. only to add to the discussion: at what day in relase the direction of the curves and how smoth or 'wild' those change in relation to their days in release The December releases are mostly changing direction stronger once = after the holidays / MLK the summer releases depening on school holiday or not, look till a time a bit like a ancient Indians pyramid cut and afterwards... = I ma guessing that is, what you mean? AvatarStar Wars Ep.VII: The ForceAwakensThe AvengersThe Lord of theRings: TheReturn of theKingThe Hobbit: AnUnexpectedJourneyDaily Cumulative Domestic Box OfficeDaily Cumulative Domestic Box Office252550507575100100125 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildphantom Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Baumer Fett said: But that only makes sense. When you are ahead of Avatar at the same point in their run by 300 million, it's obvious that avatar is going to have higher coming weekends because it has that 300 million to make up. SW will probably fall by 38-45% next weekend. So Avatar will probably have the higher weekend. But that film is irrelevant now. Their paths are no longer in synch. TFA is going down a path that Avatar can't follow and its breaking Avatar's heart. Right now Jake is telling Rey that she turned the people against him and she is replying that you did that to yourself. It looks like we will have to wait until Tuesday before we play this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GwjfUFyY6M If someone put Star Wars footage over Avatar despair footage over that record - man it would be hilarious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Faningo-com said: Aren't box office weeks counted from Fri-Thur? We can do that. 15 minutes ago, Faningo-com said: Dec 18-24: 1 WEEK = $390,856,054 Dec 25-31: 2 WEEK = $261,109,529 33.20% Jan 1-8: 3 WEEK = $148,832,432 43.00 % $148,8M seems very low, especially when coming off a $95-100M weekend. Dec 25-31 Fri-Thur 261m Jan 1-7 Fri-Thur (est.) $125m (-52%) Jan 8-14 Fri-Thu (est.) $67m (-46%) We'll see how close i am.... Edited January 2, 2016 by Elessar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faningo-com Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, efialtes76 said: More than 50m in 4 days(Mon-Thur) is very low? For any other movie, no, but for Star Wars, yes. $95M weekend and an average $13,5 Mon-Thur. $100M weekend and an average of $12,2 Mon-Thur. These numbers don't seem low to you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faningo-com Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Elessar said: We can do that. Dec 18-24 Fri-Thur 261m Dec 25-31 Fri-Thu (est.) $125m (-52%) Jan 1-8 Fri-Thu (est.) $67m (-46%) We'll see how close i am.... So you practically expect TFA to fall over and die in its 3rd week? I mean, do you really expect it to only gross $25-30M Mon-Thur? Edited January 2, 2016 by Faningo-com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 If TFA were to behave like The Hobbit next week, it would still make 50 million on the weekend. The weekdays would be about 32 mill from M-T. So you can add at least another 82 million by next Sunday. That puts it at about 832 mill, with Hobbit behavior. So I guess the bottom line is 950 looks like a good bet, if it holds like Hobbit. A billion is still within reach, no doubt. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faningo-com Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) Mistake post* Edited January 2, 2016 by Faningo-com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
