Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

No. A friend said their studio paid Par. for getting the right of running GITS. They think it will make ￥600m in CHN.

 

Oh, thanks a lot.

 

600 million Yuan would make around 87 million US, are they getting more than 25% has a Chinese distributor or some other source of revenues ?

 

Because that would be less than the 22 million they paid for, I guess you loose and win some at buying movie in advance before the reviews are out.

[fmpro]

14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Oh, thanks a lot.

 

600 million Yuan would make around 87 million US, are they getting more than 25% has a Chinese distributor or some other source of revenues ?

 

Because that would be less than the 22 million they paid for, I guess you loose and win some at buying movie in advance before the reviews are out.

 

Was thinking the same thing. Maybe they also have rights to stream,dvd and television were they can make their money

[kswiston]

Didn't Weiying buy a 10% stake in GitS's worldwide gross? Is that a separate deal, or the same $22M deal being discussed?

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, kswiston said:

Didn't Weiying buy a 10% stake in GitS's worldwide gross? Is that a separate deal, or the same $22M deal being discussed?

 

The way I understood that one it must be a separate deal, but media reporting was not clear on it, some say it's worldwide gross, others is global revenue (making it unclear if it was just the box office or also the rest)

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

No. A friend said their studio paid Par. for getting the right of running GITS. They think it will make ￥600m in CHN.

600m? Looks like OW will be below 200m then it faces FF8  for a 75%+ drop 

[Gavin Feng]

17 minutes ago, POTUS said:

600m? Looks like OW will be below 200m then it faces FF8  for a 75%+ drop 

￥600m is definitely impossible for this film.

 

After xXx and RE6, many Chinese studio wanna do the same thing to most import films. As far as I know, W.B. hopes King Arthur can sell for $20m($80m CBO). Wonder Woman already has a buyer.  Par. offered the price of $100m(￥2.8B = $400m CBO) for The Last Knight and a Chinese studio showed the interest after xXx made $160m.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

W.B. hopes King Arthur can sell for $20m($80m CBO)

 

xXx made around 36 to 38 million in profit in is China theatrical release, WB hoping to sell King Arthur 20 sound optimistic. That would need people expecting that it has a good chance of making 22 million for a possible 10% ROI that would require to do around a 97 to 100 million CBO (25% - releasing cost)

 

Are we sure those number are not involving some other revenue source, like a streaming service ?

[abra]

4 hours ago, abra said:

[9 days+ 5 hours]
The Fate of the Furious
Midnight: 4.52m
Fri: 13.01m
Sat: 5.23m

[9 days+ 0 hours]
The Fate of the Furious
Midnight: 4.94m
Fri: 14.20m
Sat: 5.64m

 

Gewara - 26462

[Premium George]

40 minutes ago, abra said:

[9 days+ 0 hours]
The Fate of the Furious
Midnight: 4.94m
Fri: 14.20m
Sat: 5.64m

 

Gewara - 26462

What does this mean? Sorry for a noob Q but I am excited for F8 chinese run.

[kswiston]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

￥600m is definitely impossible for this film.

 

After xXx and RE6, many Chinese studio wanna do the same thing to most import films. As far as I know, W.B. hopes King Arthur can sell for $20m($80m CBO). Wonder Woman already has a buyer.  Par. offered the price of $100m(￥2.8B = $400m CBO) for The Last Knight and a Chinese studio showed the interest after xXx made $160m.

 

If a Chinese Studio buys the Chinese rights for a foreign film (as was the case with RE7) do they get a higher cut of the box office proceeds, or is it still 25%?

[Gavin Feng]

26 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

If a Chinese Studio buys the Chinese rights for a foreign film (as was the case with RE7) do they get a higher cut of the box office proceeds, or is it still 25%?

A little difficult to explain this. We know SARFT only allow 34 import films to release in CHN every year. Those films called "box office spilit films"(分账片). Foreign studios can get 25% of the whole CBO of 分账片. We see more than 34 import films released every year actually because of buy-out films(批片). Foreign studios take money from local studios and will have no relationship of its CBO. About 25-31% of 批片 CBO will be given to local studios.

 

This year, local studio have great interest to buy the rights of 分账片. 

 

Official says we have an unlimited numbers of buy-out films every year. In fact, local studios still need the permission of SARFT if they wanna let an buy-out film open. Before 2012 with an limited numbers, audience could watch 50 buy-out films every year. But after cancelling it, the buy-out films we can watch every year are less than 50. Local studio need to wait for the permission long time(DMG is facing the problem of no place for Terminator 2 3D).

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

What does this mean? Sorry for a noob Q but I am excited for F8 chinese run.

14m yuan this far out is big. we estimate based on historical ramp ups that OD could be ¥350m/$50m. OW $160m+

Edited April 4, 2017 by POTUS

[keysersoze123]

On 4/4/2017 at 10:23 AM, POTUS said:

No. Slowing down to 15-25% daily after the first few days is what WC BATB and Kong did. Was up 35% on Monday. Looking for it to hug 20% thru next Monday.  Thinking it's daily % increases  will fall between Kong and WC

Tonight 13.5

W   16 +20%

Th  19 +20%

F    23.7 +20%

S    27.4  +20

S    32.8  +20

M   41  +25%

T    53  +30%

W   70  +40%

Th 119 +70%

 

 

its definitely accelrating already. its at 15.70M( up from 14.2M at midnight). I think it will increase at least 30% today. I can see presales at 40m by sunday midnight.

[POTUS 2020]

On Monday, April 03, 2017 at 2:32 PM, POTUS said:

                          CA3                    FF8                    WC

Days out    MN        OD               OD               MN      OD

0000  14                                                                          5.1

0000 13                                         2.5                             8.75 +71%

0000 12                                         5.4 +116÷               12  +37%

0000  11                                        8.3 +55%                14.8 +23%

0000  10                                      11.4 +56%                17 +14.8

0000.   9     0.1m   0.3m            14.5 +27%   18        20 +17.6

0000    8     0.8       2.4               20.0 +38%   19         23+15%

0000    7     1.2       3.6 +50%                           20        27 +18%

0000    6     1.8       6.2 +72%                           21.9    31.5 +17%

0000    5     2.1       8.1 +31%                           23.5    35.9 +14%

0000    4     2.8.    11.9 +47%                           24.8    40.8 +14%

0000    3     3.5     16.3 +37%                           25.8    44.8 +10%

0000    2     4.8     25.4 +56%                           27.0    50.9 +14%

0000    1     6.4     37.9 +50%                           29.0    64.0 +28%

0000  OD  18.1     65.8 +75%                           50.4    96.0 +50%

I assume WC had a 15th day with 2m.

FF8 didn't get going until through afternoon of the 13th day. It is a similar pattern, but WC didn't ramp hard at the end like all other movies. Kong was 30, 40, 50, 75% it's last 4 days.

Let's see how the next few days are to see how it parallels then deviates

   

 

On Tuesday, April 04, 2017 at 9:23 AM, POTUS said:

No. Slowing down to 15-25% daily after the first few days is what WC BATB and Kong did. Was up 35% on Monday. Looking for it to hug 20% thru next Monday.  Thinking it's daily % increases  will fall between Kong and WC

Tonight 13.5

W   16 +20%

Th  19 +20%

F    23.7 +20%

S    27.4  +20

S    32.8  +20

M   41  +25%

T    53  +30%

W   70  +40%

Th 119 +70%

 

FF8 running at 400k per hour. It is picking after the holiday. Not even Kong or BatB could bump 30%+ at this time in the run.  Out running my forecast bigtime, will be 4m ahead tonight. If it bumps 25% or more tomorrow I will start thinking 400m+ OD

Edited April 5, 2017 by POTUS

[keysersoze123]

if it has 400m OD then midnights could be huge as well(70m+?). Then even with average legs its making $400m. it will be a juggernaut taking out everything in its way. if it has good amount of showtimes during May day then it has outside chance of 3B Yuan.

[Premium George]

8 hours ago, POTUS said:

14m yuan this far out is big. we estimate based on historical ramp ups that OD could be ¥350m/$50m. OW $160m+

Thanks. So like F7 this will make more in china than in us. This year we already had three films like this(xxx, dog, RE) and kong came close. This is a good year for imports.

[abra]

Will FF8 have some big competition in theaters?
When does a big movie come out ? 

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Thanks. So like F7 this will make more in china than in us. This year we already had three films like this(xxx, dog, RE) and kong came close. This is a good year for imports.

 

That was always locked. F8 will drop in domestic for sure. China should have a solid run comfortably beating domestic both OW and total.

[POTUS 2020]

18 minutes ago, abra said:

Will FF8 have some big competition in theaters?
When does a big movie come out ? 

GOTG2 is may 5th. That gives FF8 3 weekends including the extended May day Holiday weekend when it will have some local competition. FF7 managed to hold -27% on May day weekend

[abra]

6 minutes ago, POTUS said:

GOTG2 is may 5th. That gives FF8 3 weekends including the extended May day Holiday weekend when it will have some local competition. FF7 managed to hold -27% on May day weekend

And some big local movies are coming out ?