ZeeSoh Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 (edited) On 11/9/2018 at 9:42 PM, ZeeSoh said: Fantastic Beasts 2 (6 days out) Midnight - 925k OD - 1.66m (+192%) (21474 shows) Sat - 738k Sun - 412k Fantastic Beasts 2 (5 days out) Midnight - 1.18m OD - 2.75m (+65.66%) (26767 shows) Sat - 1.27m Sun - 748k Good jump today for FB2. Its OD presales are higher than some similar movies however it continues to lag behind in Sat/Sun presales as well as show counts for now. OD presales 6 days out for some other movies Justice League - 2.34m Thor Ragnarok - 2.15m Fantastic Beasts 1 - 1.9m Edited November 11, 2018 by ZeeSoh 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 On 11/10/2018 at 9:51 PM, ZeeSoh said: Fantastic Beasts 2 (5 days out) Midnight - 1.18m OD - 2.75m (+65.66%) (26767 shows) Sat - 1.27m Sun - 748k Fantastic Beasts 2 (4 days out) Midnight - 1.48m OD - 4.08m (+48.36%) (31260 shows) Sat - 1.89m Sun - 1.01m Good jump again for FB2 again. I had made a mistake in earlier posts regarding how I count the days therefore the comparisons I made were a bit incorrect. Below are accurate OD comparisons 4 days out FB1 - 3.9m JL - 3.51m Thor 3 - 2.94m So far FB2's daily jumps have been a little higher than FB1. If it continues like that then it might end up with 28m in presales compared to 22m of FB1. 28m in final presale would also be higher than Thor 3 and Justice League and slightly below Guardians of the Galaxy 2. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Fantastic Beasts 2 (4 days out) Midnight - 1.48m OD - 4.08m (+48.36%) (31260 shows) Sat - 1.89m Sun - 1.01m Fantastic Beasts 2 (3 days out) Midnight - 1.82m OD - 6.47m (+58.57%) (41533 shows) Sat - 2.95m Sun - 1.40m Good jump again today. Still heading to high 20’s or around 30 PS. Super early guess for OW at this point would be around 50m (+/-2m) 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/11/2018 at 6:08 PM, ZeeSoh said: Fantastic Beasts 2 (4 days out) Midnight - 1.48m OD - 4.08m (+48.36%) (31260 shows) Sat - 1.89m Sun - 1.01m Good jump again for FB2 again. I had made a mistake in earlier posts regarding how I count the days therefore the comparisons I made were a bit incorrect. Below are accurate OD comparisons 4 days out FB1 - 3.9m JL - 3.51m Thor 3 - 2.94m So far FB2's daily jumps have been a little higher than FB1. If it continues like that then it might end up with 28m in presales compared to 22m of FB1. 28m in final presale would also be higher than Thor 3 and Justice League and slightly below Guardians of the Galaxy 2. FB1 ended with 20.95m in presales. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/23/2016 at 11:05 PM, POTUS said: That's 11.6m yuan for midnight and OD combined that Olive was referring to. OD PS at 12.5m now, that will increase by 75 -100% by Friday morning. Then do 2.5 -3x PS, more if it has great WoM. 60-80m/$9-12m OD is the expected range. 100m/$15m possible if it catches on. CA3. XMA FB 1am MN OD OD MN OD Th 0.8 2.4 2.3 Fr 1.2 3.6 +50% 3.2 +39% 0.2 1.1 SA 1.8 6.2 +72% 4.2 +31% 0.4 1.9 +73% Su 2.1 8.1 +31% 4.9 +16% 0.5 2.8 +47% Mo 2.8. 11.9 +47% 6.2 +27% 0.6 3.9 +39% Tu 3.5 16.3 +37% 9.0 +45% 0.7 5.4 +38% We 4.8 25.4 +56% 11.1 +23% 0.9 7.9 +46% Th 6.4 37.9 +50% 17.8 +60% 1.1 12.5 +52% OD 18.1 65.8 +75% 31.6 +78% 2.6 21.7 +74% CA3 OD Fri 5/6 OD Total 181m x PS 2.75x OW Total 625m Total 1245m OD Multi 6.88 OW Multi 1.99x 2.75 PS multi is in line with the norm for tentpoles XMA OD Fri 6/3 OD Total 110m x PS 3.48x OW Total 384m Total 803m OD Multi 7.3x OW Multi 2.09x 3.48 PS multi is high due to weak PS, VG WOM and strong walk ups 43 minutes ago, efialtes76 said: FB1 ended with 20.95m in presales. 21.7 but I rounded it off to 22. I know Olive had it at 20.95 but I think that was the number at midnight. The number above is several hours after midnight as presales keeps increasing well into the night. This is also why when I report the final PS number I dont report it at midnight (like I do for other days). I wait till a few hours after 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Fantastic Beasts 2 (3 days out) Midnight - 1.82m OD - 6.47m (+58.57%) (41533 shows) Sat - 2.95m Sun - 1.40m Fantastic Beasts 2 (2 days out) Midnight - 2.15m OD - 9.71m (+50.07%) (58419 shows) Sat - 4.56m Sun - 2.03m Some OD presales comparisons 2 days out Justice League - 8.34 Thor Ragnarok - 7.34 Fantastic Beasts 1 - 7.9 It's leading all these 3 movies but that does not necessarily mean much. Thor 3 for example was behind at this point but ended up with the highest OW amongst these movies. So reception matters a lot. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said: Fantastic Beasts 2 (2 days out) Midnight - 2.15m OD - 9.71m (+50.07%) (58419 shows) Sat - 4.56m Sun - 2.03m Some OD presales comparisons 2 days out Justice League - 8.34 Thor Ragnarok - 7.34 Fantastic Beasts 1 - 7.9 It's leading all these 3 movies but that does not necessarily mean much. Thor 3 for example was behind at this point but ended up with the highest OW amongst these movies. So reception matters a lot. Although +17k is a good jump for showcount, still feel like it's lagging behind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, feasby007 said: Although +17k is a good jump for showcount, still feel like it's lagging behind It's actually caught up with the other 3 movies that I was comparing it with (it was lagging till yesterday in show counts). But compared to some recent movies it is lagging behind. For example both MI6 and Ant Man 2 were around 79k whereas Venom was at 103k. I suspect the unexpected success of Venom is affecting how many screens FB2 is getting and will get 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Fb1's PSM was 3.45 to bring in a 75,m OD. Its possible the PSm drops for a sequel and/or bad reviews FB2 PS 20% over FB2 but that could be negated by a lower PSm. $40-50m OW incoming, matching or beating FB for OW. FB had a 2.1 OWm. The total could fall short if its not received well and competition from Vm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Fantastic Beasts 2 (2 days out) Midnight - 2.15m OD - 9.71m (+50.07%) (58419 shows) Sat - 4.56m Sun - 2.03m Fantastic Beasts 2 (1 days out) Midnight - 2.70m OD - 15.22m (+56.75%) (84894 shows) Sat - 7.62m Sun - 3.05m Heading I think to a 26-29m Yuan final PS. From there if it has typical OW multi then it will get to 46-48m USD opening weekend. It remains to be seen how much Venom will affect this but there will surely be an effect. If not for Venom this could have easily crossed 50m I think. Venom is already creeping up in terms of show count. Its already at 60k and that number will definitely increase. IF ratings for FB2 are not that great then perhaps we could see Venom having more shows on Sat/Sun than FB2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 9:38 PM, ZeeSoh said: Fantastic Beasts 2 (1 days out) Midnight - 2.70m OD - 15.22m (+56.75%) (84894 shows) Sat - 7.62m Sun - 3.05m Fantastic Beasts 2 (Final) OD - 29.23m (+92%) (121,037 shows) Sat - 14.22m Sun - 5.46m As I expected yesterday, final PS is at 29m. Typical multi from here would lead to an opening around 50-51m. Maoyan also expects around 50m opening. However with Venom overperforming I am not sure if that will happen. I think Venom could possibly overtake FB2 on Saturday and Sunday as show times for both are quite close and Venom could overtake FB2 in show times. Some other comparisons for final OD PS in yuan are below Ant Man 2 - 46.6m (141,372 shows) The Mummy - 31.19m GotG 2 - 28.45m Justice League - 26m (111,428 shows) Thor Ragnarok - 24.2m Right now I am gonna stick to what I said yesterday and say guess an OW in the 46-48m range. I'll update it when ratings and mid day Friday numbers come through 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lothar Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 When is Aquaman presales going to start ? @ZeeSoh @Gavin Feng @Olive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Lothar said: When is Aquaman presales going to start ? @ZeeSoh @Gavin Feng @Olive Can’t find any set date as of yet. Perhaps Olive or Gavin might be better able to answer. But based on past movies, SH stuff usually starts 10-14 days before release. Some movies however have very short PS runs usually of a week or even less like The Mummy last year. Some movies on the other hand start presales 21-22 days in advance like IW or JW2. If I have to guess I would say 10-14 days before release as that seems standard. I hope to cover Aquaman’s PS run as I do for every SH movie. Edited November 24, 2018 by ZeeSoh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
movieboner Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 This thread will be brought back to life tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 29, 2018 Author Share Posted November 29, 2018 2.2k showtimes listed, 172k RMB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 8 hours ago, movieboner said: This thread will be brought back to life tomorrow. Aquaman is on pace with Logan Presale Starts 8 days before Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 I've seen than a Ghibli classic, My neighbour Totoro, is being released on December 14th and presales have already started. Does it have any chance of making some relevant figures? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 29, 2018 Author Share Posted November 29, 2018 3 hours ago, peludo said: I've seen than a Ghibli classic, My neighbour Totoro, is being released on December 14th and presales have already started. Does it have any chance of making some relevant figures? It needed 100M yuan to break even since local company bought it very expensive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 29, 2018 Author Share Posted November 29, 2018 Aquaman PS start with a boom! Venom level. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Olive is a DC hater!!! Don't believe him 1 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...