Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, Bruce said:

The Average price in China boost up to $15,that’s really abnormal even it’s Avatar,most people never pay that high to watch the movie in their life,$8-9 is more acceptable for most people in China(the standard for Avatar ,normally we pay $5-6 for watch the film),hope the price will go down on its 2nd WE

Yeah China is one of those specific markets where the movie is getting a unique markup that will impact admit appreciably. But it’s also a market with bigger factors in the background right at this moment anyway. Basically while nums here are gravy to me and will take WW-c for serious analysis/comparisons.

[JustLurking]

I'm assuming theaters might be taking note a lot of normal folks won't want to come out right away due to covid situation here and are trying to milk the fans who are more likely to risk it for all they're worth.

 

Just a guess of course but seems reasonable.

[cooldude97]

14 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Meh day.

you want to talk about it?/s

[charlie Jatinder]

May miss 100M final Day 1 pre-sales unless make big improvement. Either way very poor pre-sales given expectations.

[Legion Again]

One thing I would note is that it’s not like restrictions went away because China actually beat the virus. 
 

If the previous state was huge restrictions+no virus, then dropping all restrictions gets you no restriction+no virus, perfect conditions. But since previous state was huge restrictions+medium virus, dropping all restrictions gets you no restrictions+… massive wave of virus. Still not great timing!

Edited December 14, 2022 by Korra Legion

[NCsoft]

2 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

One thing I would note is that it’s not like restrictions went away because China actually beat the virus. 
 

If the previous state was huge restrictions+no virus, then dropping all restrictions gets you no restriction+no virus, perfect conditions. But since previous state was huge restrictions+medium virus, dropping all restrictions gets you no restrictions+… massive wave of virus. Still not great timing!

 

This current situation is possibly worse than say... progressively reopen the country and relax zero covid policies step by step + theatres that open would check covid negative test - right now it seems like people are either covid positive (with fever), or afraid to go to any public venues. The covid hesitancy is sky high amid massive number of infections, probably similar feeling to NYC in summer 2020. At this point I don't know if the high number of theaters being open is actually beneficial in anyway. 

 

 

[cooldude97]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

May miss 100M final Day 1 pre-sales unless make big improvement. Either way very poor pre-sales given expectations.

is it because of COVID, the government, the hype not being there or a mix of all?

[Mr Roark]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

May miss 100M final Day 1 pre-sales unless make big improvement. Either way very poor pre-sales given expectations.

Avatar is not a fan base nerd driven film, with people eagerly booking tickets in advance. People will just show up if the WOM would be good… hopefully…

Edited December 14, 2022 by Mr Roark

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, Korra Legion said:

One thing I would note is that it’s not like restrictions went away because China actually beat the virus. 
 

If the previous state was huge restrictions+no virus, then dropping all restrictions gets you no restriction+no virus, perfect conditions. But since previous state was huge restrictions+medium virus, dropping all restrictions gets you no restrictions+… massive wave of virus. Still not great timing!

While I agree with this point - and I have made it myself -, the slowdown feels like it has been nearly unanimous ww to the point where I am not really sure that is the only reason.

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

While I agree with this point - and I have made it myself -, the slowdown feels like it has been nearly unanimous ww to the point where I am not really sure that is the only reason.

I think it’s very clear from other territories that it would be slowing down here over past two days even on perfect market conditions, but I expect without covid considerations the slow down would be less (/similar relative slow down but off way better t-5 sales).

Edited December 14, 2022 by Korra Legion

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Korra Legion said:

I think it’s very clear from other territories that it would be slowing down here over past two days even on perfect market conditions, but I expect without covid considerations the slow down would be less (/similar relative slow down but off way better t-5 sales).

I think we might have seen similar slow down but way better overall volume instead. Still, no point debating ifs I guess.

[NCsoft]

Yeah, I haven't tracked enough presales trajectory for CBO but I get the sense that the slow down in China doesn't seem like a normal-ish slow down, it feels like a shocking "coming to a halt" type of slow down.

[Legion Again]

26 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I think we might have seen similar slow down but way better overall volume instead. Still, no point debating ifs I guess.

I don’t plan to have much opinion on “what would A2 have done in China under good conditions” until we see A3’s market by market finals tbh

[Issac Newton]

THUR Midnight (¥10.8M) - ½ Limited WED (¥20M)

 

FRI (¥57.6M) ~ SAT (¥54.3M)

 

SUN (¥26.4M) < ½ SAT (¥54.3M)

[Issac Newton]

Total Pre-sales (incl. WED LS) - ¥171M / 597K shows

[JustLurking]

What is expected here in terms of opening? My understanding is that overall PS halted massively here but I am a China illiterate. Is 100M+ usd opening still a thing or will it go below even that?

Edited December 14, 2022 by JustLurking

[marveldcfox]

I think people just don't care. Everything else is excuse.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

What is expected here in terms of opening? My understanding is that overall PS halted massively here but I am a China illiterate. Is 100M+ usd opening still a thing or will it go below even that?

Should still be fine for $150M through Sunday.

[JustLurking]

Just now, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Should still be fine for $150M through Sunday.

Thanks. I'm ok with that I guess.

[Gkalaitza]

23 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

I think people just don't care. Everything else is excuse.

This is aufuly reductive. Why is it so weird to believe that there are circumstances in China that will hamper Avatar's box office prospects? Even if you dont live in China its easy to see that Covid surge,fear and self isolation is significantly impacting things there. I just searched the Chinese name for Avatar in Weibo and scrolled through dozens and dozens of posts about people not going OW because of covid in about a minute

 

Not saying that it wouldnt undeperform otherwise (cause other markets are slowing down too) but here is a lot hesitancy for spending 4 hours in a closed space in a megacity now that there has been a massive shift in pandemic prevention from hard and massive government actions and lockdowns towards more of a "personal responsibility" and opening up mindset and acceptance that a big wave is gonna happen and a shitton of peple will get infected. China rn is exactly at the extremely difficult crossroad of that whole deal and Chinese people who much more cautious regarding covid , act accordingly in the face of that.  .

 

Even if you doupt you had a couple of people that live in China say the same.   

 

Personaly it seems obvious to me that an OW of ~100m would be in large part a result of that.