cannastop Posted September 20, 2016 Author Share Posted September 20, 2016 52 minutes ago, Alpha said: Moonlight is adapted. He's not the first one to make that error. I don't know why so many people keep categorizing Moonlight as original. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 it's based on a play that's never been performed so it's a memento situation and it probably goes original. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 20, 2016 Author Share Posted September 20, 2016 11 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: it's based on a play that's never been performed so it's a memento situation and it probably goes original. I see Moonlight as a lock, so this is my new prediction if it's in the original category. Original Screenplay: La La Land Manchester by the Sea Moonlight Hell or High Water Zootopia First three are locks. Next two can't be certain until the end of the year. Adapted Screenplay: Billy Lynn Fences Silence Arrival Nocturnal Animals This category seems weaker than Original. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 If Moonlight is original: Original Screenplay Hell or High Water Jackie La La Land Manchester by the Sea Moonlight ALT: Zootopia Adapted Screenplay Arrival Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Fences Nocturnal Animals Silence ALT: Sully 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 21, 2016 Author Share Posted September 21, 2016 I didn't realize how strong Jackie's reviews were before I gave that last prediction. Still, the emphasis is on Natalie Portman in Jackie, so it might overshadow the other aspects in the movie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 (edited) Disney's pulling this stunt for Oscar publicity: Disney’s ‘Zootopia’ Jumps Into Clinton-Trump Debate As Oscar & Presidential Campaigns Start To Merge http://deadline.com/2016/09/zootopia-presidential-debates-oscar-political-1201825939/ Spoiler The article also mentions that Hell or High Water's distributor, CBS Films, pointed out topic issues in its campaign as well. Edit: Just found an explanation. This is organized by The Angellotti Company, Disney's awards publicists. http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-disneys-zootopia-host-debate-931948 Edited September 27, 2016 by cannastop 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Awards Circuit, September 26 Original Screenplay: http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/oscar-predictions-best-original-screenplay/ “La La Land” – Damien Chazelle “Manchester by the Sea” – Kenneth Lonergan “Moonlight” – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney “Loving” – Jeff Nichols “Jackie” – Noah Oppenheim “20th Century Women” – Mike Mills “The Lobster” – Efthimis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos “Hell or High Water” – Taylor Sheridan “Florence Foster Jenkins” – Nicholas Martin “I, Daniel Blake” – Paul Laverty I have my doubts about Loving. Adapted Screenplay: “Fences” – August Wilson “Silence” – Jay Cocks “Lion” – Luke Davies “Nocturnal Animals” – Tom Ford “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” – Jean-Christophe Castelli “Hidden Figures” – Allison Schroeder “Arrival” – Eric Heisserer “Sully” – Todd Komarnicki “Love & Friendship” – Whit Stillman “The Girl on the Train” – Erin Cressida Wilson Replace Lion with Arrival, in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 New predictions: Original: 1. La La Land 2. Manchester by the Sea 3. Jackie 4. Moonlight 5. Hell or High Water Adapted: 1. Silence 2. Arrival 3. Billy Lynn 4. Live by Night 5. Fences 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted October 6, 2016 Author Share Posted October 6, 2016 16 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: New predictions: Original: 1. La La Land 2. Manchester by the Sea 3. Jackie 4. Moonlight 5. Hell or High Water Adapted: 1. Silence 2. Arrival 3. Billy Lynn 4. Live by Night 5. Fences I endorse this list. I'm no longer confident that Zootopia will get a screenplay nomination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted October 10, 2016 Author Share Posted October 10, 2016 (edited) Monthly Awards Watch Voting Panel http://awardswatch.com/predictions/2017-oscar-predictions-adapted-screenplay-original-screenplay-october-silence-billy-lynn-manchester-by-the-sea-la-la-land/ Original Screenplay: 49 Points: Manchester by the Sea 36 Points: La La Land 27 Points: Moonlight 23 Points: Jackie 12 Points: Hell or High Water 2 Points: Loving 1 Point: The Lobster Adapted Screenplay: 47 Points: Silence 41 Points: Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk 31 Points: Fences 16 Points: Arrival 10 Points: Love and Friendship 2 Points: Hidden Figures 2 Points: Lion 1 Point: Sully This is in line with @WrathOfHan's prediction, except for Love and Friendship's replacing Live by Night. There's a little uncertainty in the adapted category. Edited October 10, 2016 by cannastop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted November 9, 2016 Author Share Posted November 9, 2016 Trump's victory puts a whole new life into Zootopia's Oscar campaign. Disney was already pushing the movie hard. Maybe it can squeak a nomination here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 (edited) I have Original 1.Manchester by the Sea 2.La La Land 3.Moonlight 4.Hell or High Water 5.Passengers Adapted 1.Fences 2.Arrival 3.Silence 4.Love and Friendship 5.Live By Night Edited November 21, 2016 by ThePanda A Star Wars Story Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 I'm iffy on Arrival being here after seeing it. Like all of Villeneuve's features I've seen it's carried much more by the direction and the lead performance(s) than the writing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 Predictions: Original Winner: Manchester by the Sea Nominees: -Moonlight -La La Land -Hell or High Water -20th Century Women Adapted Winner: Silence Nominees: -Fences -Arrival -Hidden Figures -Hacksaw Ridge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 La La Land is likely not winning here-it has a chance of not even being nominated. Remember-no musical has ever won screenplay. Even West Side Story which swept the Oscars lost in this category, Sound of Music and Gigi were both not nominated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Impact said: La La Land is likely not winning here-it has a chance of not even being nominated. Remember-no musical has ever won screenplay. Even West Side Story which swept the Oscars lost in this category, Sound of Music and Gigi were both not nominated. gigi actually won fyi. and it was the last original musical to win best picture. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: gigi actually won fyi. and it was the last original musical to win best picture. Nope-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigi_(1958_film)#Awards_and_nominations Also: West Side Story, My Fair Lady, Sound of Music, Oliver and Chicago are all musicals the last time I checked. Edit: Wait it did win screenplay, for some reason I thought it wasn't nominated there. Still my point stands about how La La Land does have a bit of trouble winning. 2nd edit: Missed you saying original musical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Just now, Impact said: Nope-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigi_(1958_film)#Awards_and_nominations Also: West Side Story, My Fair Lady, Sound of Music, Oliver and Chicago are all musicals the last time I checked. it literally has best screenplay listed as a win right there. and i said ORIGINAL musical. as in not based on a musical stage show (yes it's based on a book but that's different). duuhhhhh why can't you reeaaaaadddd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 14 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: it literally has best screenplay listed as a win right there. and i said ORIGINAL musical. as in not based on a musical stage show (yes it's based on a book but that's different). duuhhhhh why can't you reeaaaaadddd Check when I said edit. Which I just read it wrong-and I wasn't paying attention is all to the awards, I nearly did check it is the strange part. But yeah we all misread something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Manchester has a good grip on this. If anything's gonna pull an upset, it'll be Moonlight not LLL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...