Wednesday Numbers

[MikeQ]

36 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Not seeing it, it'll need a huge increase tomorrow (60%+) for that, it's dropping at LEAST 12% today

 

 

 

Past second weekend Friday increases for all Bourne films that also opened around the same time (end of July/beginning of August):

 

The Bourne Legacy: 74%

The Bourne Ultimatum: 71.6%

The Bourne Supremacy: 68.2%

 

I think a 60%+ increase for Bourne is perfectly doable. That being said, it still looks to have a large overall second weekend drop regardless.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

 

Edited August 4, 2016 by MikeQ

[Krissykins]

Shit, those are some ugly drops for Bourne, SLOP, Ice Age, Lights Out and Tarzan.

 

Suicide Squad incoming.

[FlashMaster659]

These Bad Moms holds look pretty impressive.

[baumer]

46 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

B, a 55% drop would be a 26.6M weekend; it's impossible to hit that mark.

 

No its not.

[baumer]

How can u say a film dropping 55% in its second weekend is impossible? 

[baumer]

28 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

It still has to face Suicide Squad. 

 

Which is why it will fall 55% instead of 52%.

[Krissykins]

-

(8)

Ghostbusters

Sony Pictures

$1,257,082

-28%

3,052

$412

$110,881,200

20

 

 

I can deal with this, was expecting 30-32%

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Baumer said:

How can u say a film dropping 55% in its second weekend is impossible? 

If you really love a movie, it can never have a bad drop.

 

Duh.

[MikeQ]

As much as I'd love it to only drop 55%, it does seem impossible when I break it down with generous drops/increases:

 

Wed: $4.569

Thur: $4.11 (-10%)

Fri: $7.19 (+75%)

Sat: $9.70 (+35%)

Sun: $7.27 (-25%)

WEEKEND TOTAL: $24.16 million (-59.2% weekend drop)

 

And those are pretty generous, no? I'm trying to figure out a way for it to reach $26.6 million, and I can't see it. 

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

[sfran43]

#SuicideSquad breaks AUG opening wknd theater record with 4255 locations beating old record of 4080 by #GuardiansOfTheGalaxy.

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) August 4, 2016

[sfran43]

Rank	LW	Title	Distributor	Theater Count	Change	% Change	Week #
> NEW RELEASES
1	-	Suicide Squad	Warner Bros.	4,255	-	-	1
9	-	Nine Lives (2016)	EuropaCorp	2,264	-	-	1
39	-	Elevator to the Gallows (2016 re-issue)	Rialto	1	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
2	1	Jason Bourne	Universal	4,040	+14	+0.3%	2
20	31	Captain America: Civil War	Buena Vista	174	+89	+104.7%	14
26	54	Gleason	Open Road Films	69	+60	+666.7%	2
27	69	Indignation	Roadside Attractions	55	+51	+1,275.0%	2
31	45	Our Little Sister	Sony Classics	23	+3	+15.0%	5
32	50	Eat That Question: Frank Zappa in His Own Words	Sony Classics	19	+6	+46.2%	7
35	52	Genius	Roadside Attractions	13	+2	+18.2%	9
> NO CHANGE
5	5	Bad Moms	STX Entertainment	3,215	-	-	2
36	68	Equity	Sony Classics	4	-	-	2
37	-	Band of Outsiders (2016 re-issue)	Rialto	2	-	-	12
> DECLINING
3	4	The Secret Life of Pets	Universal	3,413	-264	-7.2%	5
4	3	Star Trek Beyond	Paramount	3,263	-665	-16.9%	3
6	2	Ice Age: Collision Course	Fox	2,738	-1,259	-31.5%	3
7	7	Lights Out	Warner Bros. (New Line)	2,581	-254	-9.0%	3
8	6	Ghostbusters (2016)	Sony / Columbia	2,545	-507	-16.6%	4
10	9	Finding Dory	Buena Vista	1,122	-611	-35.3%	8
11	12	Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party	Quality Flix	672	-394	-37.0%	4
12	10	The Legend of Tarzan	Warner Bros.	648	-855	-56.9%	6
13	16	Captain Fantastic	Bleecker Street	363	-187	-34.0%	5
14	11	Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates	Fox	297	-773	-72.2%	5
15	13	Central Intelligence	Warner Bros. (New Line)	266	-386	-59.2%	8
16	19	The BFG	Buena Vista	234	-39	-14.3%	6
17	18	Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie	Fox Searchlight	226	-129	-36.3%	3
18	17	The Purge: Election Year	Universal	206	-304	-59.6%	6
19	22	The Jungle Book (2016)	Buena Vista	200	-25	-11.1%	17
21	20	The Conjuring 2	Warner Bros. (New Line)	166	-78	-32.0%	9
22	21	Independence Day: Resurgence	Fox	165	-62	-27.3%	7
23	26	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows	Paramount	141	-29	-17.1%	10
24	27	Alice Through the Looking Glass	Buena Vista	126	-20	-13.7%	11
25	23	Me Before You	Warner Bros. (New Line)	103	-85	-45.2%	10
28	33	Love & Friendship	Roadside Attractions	34	-18	-34.6%	13
29	40	The Lobster (US Release)	A24	27	-4	-12.9%	13
30	39	Swiss Army Man	A24	24	-9	-27.3%	7
33	38	Our Kind of Traitor	Roadside Attractions	15	-18	-54.5%	6
34	42	Maggie's Plan	Sony Classics	14	-13	-48.1%	12
38	66	De Palma	A24	1	-3	-75.0%	9
40	47	Into the Forest	A24	1	-14	-93.3%	2

Edited August 4, 2016 by sfran43

[a2k]

29 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Shit, those are some ugly drops for Bourne, SLOP, Ice Age, Lights Out and Tarzan.

 

Suicide Squad incoming.

 

Nah..that's how Wed is each week. None of the drops are really ugly.

[a2k]

(9)

Finding Dory

Walt Disney

$647,437

-25%

1,733

$374

$471,362,493

48

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

 

Nah..that's how Wed is each week. None of the drops are really ugly.

 

Nah, not really. The 33% and 34% drops are ugly.

 

I looked back at Wednesdays since the beginning of June. Only TMNT2 and Ice Age 5 had worse first Wednesday drops.

[MovieMan89]

So these may be the only live action movies to hit 3x this summer, out of the ones opening to at least 10m:

Central Intelligence - 3.6x

Tarzan - 3.4x

The Shallows - 3.3x

The Nice Guys - 3.3x

 

Maybes:

Bad Moms

Lights Out

Pete's Dragon

Florence Foster Jenkins

War Dogs

Edited August 4, 2016 by MovieMan89

[efialtes76]

57 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Shit, those are some ugly drops for Bourne, SLOP, Ice Age, Lights Out and Tarzan.

 

Suicide Squad incoming.

Yesterday SLOP and Tarzan dropped 29%.

Last wednesday dropped 28%...

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Shit, those are some ugly drops for Bourne, SLOP, Ice Age, Lights Out and Tarzan.

 

Suicide Squad incoming.

 

40 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Nah, not really. The 33% and 34% drops are ugly.

 

I looked back at Wednesdays since the beginning of June. Only TMNT2 and Ice Age 5 had worse first Wednesday drops.

 

Bourne -33% in the 1st week. Sub 30% on 1st Wed would have been good. 30-31% normal. 32-33% more than expected maybe by a 1-2%, not ugly.

SLOP -26%

Ice Age -34% after a 41% Tue bump. Last week it was +45% on Tue and -37% on Wed. http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ice-Age-Collision-Course#tab=box-office It's been having very high Tue bumps comparitively, so Wed is fine too.

Lights Out -28%

Tarzan -29%

 

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Jason Bourne	Universal	$4,569,745	-33%	4,026	$1,135	$76,772,090	6
2	(2)	Bad Moms	STX Entertainment	$3,214,405	-17%	3,215	$1,000	$33,828,380	6
3	(4)	Star Trek Beyond	Paramount Pictures	$2,556,471	-26%	3,928	$651	$115,593,268	13
4	(3)	The Secret Life of Pets	Universal	$2,495,165	-29%	3,673	$679	$305,673,310	27
5	(5)	Ice Age: Collision Course	20th Century Fox	$1,495,958	-34%	3,997	$374	$47,938,512	13
6	(6)	Nerve	Lionsgate	$1,475,865	-28%	2,538	$582	$20,772,642	8
7	(7)	Lights Out	Warner Bros.	$1,319,409	-28%	2,835	$465	$47,694,221	13
-	(8)	Ghostbusters	Sony Pictures	$1,257,082	-28%	3,052	$412	$110,881,200	20
-	(9)	Finding Dory	Walt Disney	$647,437	-25%	1,733	$374	$471,362,493	48
-	(10)	The Legend of Tarzan	Warner Bros.	$314,130	-29%	1,503	$209	$123,037,973	34

Edited August 4, 2016 by a2knet

[baumer]

47 minutes ago, cannastop said:

If you really love a movie, it can never have a bad drop.

 

Duh.

 

I hated Pets and Dory and that doesn't stop me from being realistic. This has nothing to do with my like or dislike of a film. This is me using historival data.

[Krissykins]

8 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

 

Nah...The movies you listed

Bourne -33% in the 1st week. Sub 30% on 1st Wed would have been good. 30-31% normal. 32-33% more than normal maybe, not ugly.

SLOP -26%

Ice Age +34% after a 41% Tue bump. Last week it was +45% on Tue and -37% on Wed. http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ice-Age-Collision-Course#tab=box-office

Lights Out -28%

Tarzan -29%

 

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Jason Bourne	Universal	$4,569,745	-33%	4,026	$1,135	$76,772,090	6
2	(2)	Bad Moms	STX Entertainment	$3,214,405	-17%	3,215	$1,000	$33,828,380	6
3	(4)	Star Trek Beyond	Paramount Pictures	$2,556,471	-26%	3,928	$651	$115,593,268	13
4	(3)	The Secret Life of Pets	Universal	$2,495,165	-29%	3,673	$679	$305,673,310	27
5	(5)	Ice Age: Collision Course	20th Century Fox	$1,495,958	-34%	3,997	$374	$47,938,512	13
6	(6)	Nerve	Lionsgate	$1,475,865	-28%	2,538	$582	$20,772,642	8
7	(7)	Lights Out	Warner Bros.	$1,319,409	-28%	2,835	$465	$47,694,221	13
-	(8)	Ghostbusters	Sony Pictures	$1,257,082	-28%	3,052	$412	$110,881,200	20
-	(9)	Finding Dory	Walt Disney	$647,437	-25%	1,733	$374	$471,362,493	48
-	(10)	The Legend of Tarzan	Warner Bros.	$314,130	-29%	1,503	$209	$123,037,973	34

 

First Wednesday drops:

Ice Age Collision Course -37%
TMNT -36%
Jason Bourne -33%
Warcraft -32%
Ghostbusters 32%
Star Trek -30%
Independence Day -30%
Free State of Jones -29%
Lights Out -28%
Mike and Dave -28%
Tarzan -28%
Now You See Me 2 -27%
Secret Life of Pets -27%
Purge -27%
Me Before You -24%
The Conjuring 2 -24%
Central Intelligence -23%
The Shallows -23%
BFG -22%
Finding Dory -22%

[Krissykins]

Ghostbusters -44% from last Wednesday. 

 

Expecting quite afew big Thursday drops due to Suicide Squad.

 

Bracing myself for a 15% Ghostbusters drop.

Edited August 4, 2016 by Krissykins