Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[ecstasy]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

WB and Sony really dragging their feet. Useless laggards 

 

Every penny counts.

[MCKillswitch123]

Pretty sure 2013 holds the all-time record for animation:

 

Frozen - 400.7M

Despicable Me 2 - 368M

Monsters University - 268.4M

The Croods - 187.1M

Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2 - 119.7M

Epic - 107.5M

Planes - 90.2M

Turbo - 83M

The Smurfs 2 - 71M

TOTAL: 1.695.6B

 

Right now, 2016's at:

 

Finding Dory - 476.8M

Zootopia - 341.2M

The Secret Life Of Pets - 335.9M
Kung Fu Panda 3 - 143.5M

The Angry Birds Movie - 107.2M

Ice Age: Collision Course - 58.6M

Sausage Party: 33.6M

Norm Of The North: 17M

Ratchet & Clank: 8.8M

(yes, NOTN made almost twice as much as R&C... y'all should be ashamed, regardless of liking R&C or not)

TOTAL: 1.489B

 

Sausage Party will of course do way more, it's probably on course to do about 80-90M DOM, with 100M not out of question. That'll put the total past 1.550B alone. Dory is bound to rise about 8-10M more, while Pets could challenge an increase of 35M. IA5 will also increase a little bit. Moana + Sing could add as much as 400-500 alone. Throw in Storks and Trolls for good measure, and yeah, animation this year could pose a threat to an unprecedented combined total of 2B DOM.

[ecstasy]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Pretty sure 2013 holds the all-time record for animation:

 

Frozen - 400.7M

Despicable Me 2 - 368M

Monsters University - 268.4M

The Croods - 187.1M

Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2 - 119.7M

Epic - 107.5M

Planes - 90.2M

Turbo - 83M

The Smurfs 2 - 71M

TOTAL: 1.695.6B

 

Right now, 2016's at:

 

Finding Dory - 476.8M

Zootopia - 341.2M

The Secret Life Of Pets - 335.9M
Kung Fu Panda 3 - 143.5M

The Angry Birds Movie - 107.2M

Ice Age: Collision Course - 58.6M

Sausage Party: 33.6M

Norm Of The North: 17M

Ratchet & Clank: 8.8M

(yes, NOTN made almost twice as much as R&C... y'all should be ashamed, regardless of liking R&C or not)

TOTAL: 1.489B

 

Sausage Party will of course do way more, it's probably on course to do about 80-90M DOM, with 100M not out of question. That'll put the total past 1.550B alone. Dory is bound to rise about 8-10M more, while Pets could challenge an increase of 35M. IA5 will also increase a little bit. Moana + Sing could add as much as 400-500 alone. Throw in Storks and Trolls for good measure, and yeah, animation this year could pose a threat to an unprecedented combined total of 2B DOM.

 

 

Great post!

[Sam]

8 minutes ago, Nova said:

The Sunday estimate is below it by 300K but I'm going to go ahead and say actuals are higher (as Nilephelan said) and assume its Sunday is on par or slightly higher than it. Its drops percentage wise however have been slightly bigger than GOTG so I think it'll start falling behind soon as well. 

 

That's what I figured too.

 

Guardians did have to content with direct competition in TMNT back then (the dailies drops were pretty good still though) whereas SS doesn't, so maybe its daily drops could be slightly better? But taking into account this 2nd weekend drop and the trajectory, maybe not. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Sausage Party will of course do way more, it's probably on course to do about 80-90M DOM, with 100M not out of question. That'll put the total past 1.550B alone. Dory is bound to rise about 8-10M more, while Pets could challenge an increase of 35M. IA5 will also increase a little bit. Moana + Sing could add as much as 400-500 alone. Throw in Storks and Trolls for good measure, and yeah, animation this year could pose a threat to an unprecedented combined total of 2B DOM.

[MCKillswitch123]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

 

I always forget about Kubo  Yeah, while that won't be a deciding factor by any means, it's in the same ballpark as Trolls and Storks: a good measure stick to further enhance the animation box office this year.

[Mojoguy]

Sausage Party will of course do way more, it's probably on course to do about 80-90M DOM, with 100M not out of question. That'll put the total past 1.550B alone. Dory is bound to rise about 8-10M more, while Pets could challenge an increase of 35M. IA5 will also increase a little bit. Moana + Sing could add as much as 400-500 alone. Throw in Storks and Trolls for good measure, and yeah, animation this year could pose a threat to an unprecedented combined total of 2B DOM.

You forgot about the merchandising! Animated movies make a ton on merchandise.

$$$$

[Sam]

7 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

 

I kind give the side eye to him for playing the leading role though. He knows he's way too handsome for that. Hope it's not a distraction.

 

Oh God you're one of those "book" people, lol.  Did you like the latest "And Then There Were None"?

 

Way too handsome and way too tall lol. But I'm down for him hamming up the mannerisms and quirks of Poirot. 

 

I LOVE And Then There Were None!! It's actually the book I want to see get adapted onscreen for modern cinema the most out of AC library. I think it'll make for a great thriller/crime drama movie.

[a2k]

My gut says SING is being really over-predicted. I have it at 140M+.

MOANA at 300M+

STORKS at 100M+

TROLLS I can't even...what the hell was that trailer. They were trolling us with it.

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

 

Every penny counts.

 

[Brainiac5]

47 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Unless I'm misunderstanding you, Guardians did $25M+ it's 3rd weekend.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=marvel2014a.htm

Sorry had the 3rd and second weekend mixed up but SS will still be 40+ above it.

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

My gut says SING is being really over-predicted. I have it at 140M+.

MOANA at 300M+

STORKS at 100M+

TROLLS I can't even...what the hell was that trailer. They were trolling us with it.

 

Well, I did say 400-500 for the Moana/Sing combo, 300 of those coming from Moana alone. Sing to me is a question mark, but I see it performing very well. It's got one huge advantage: Illumination's marketing machine. I wasn't enthralled by its trailer, but a lot of the movie's target audience probably was. It won't be anywhere near as big as Pets, but unlike Alvin last year, I think it'll do a decent job of counterprogramming the bigger sci-fi stuff like Rogue One and Passengers.

 

Trolls is gonna be a bomb for all I care (basically like almost everything DreamWorks these days). However... you can't go wrong with that Timberlake song. And usually, successful singles can translate into successful marketing for a film. Maybe it won't be AS BIG a fail as we're expecting. And it is dropping two months after the last animated film before it (Storks), so... yeah, we'll see.

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Sony and WB right now trying to get every penny they can to add to the actuals from this weekend for SP and SS. Every penny does count, after all. 

[Jake Gittes]

11 minutes ago, Sam said:

 

Way too handsome and way too tall lol. But I'm down for him hamming up the mannerisms and quirks of Poirot. 

 

I LOVE And Then There Were None!! It's actually the book I want to see get adapted onscreen for modern cinema the most out of AC library. I think it'll make for a great thriller/crime drama movie.

 

Highly recommend the 1987 Soviet version if you haven't seen it (it's on YouTube with subtitles). Appropriately gloomy and keeps the original ending.

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

Highly recommend the 1987 Soviet version if you haven't seen it (it's on YouTube with subtitles). Appropriately gloomy and keeps the original ending.

I have not. But, I will check it out now though.

[Johnny Tran]

Civil War dropped 60% and that was a movie that critics loved and had a very strong positive reaction overall.  So SS a film that critics did not just dislike but loathed and audiences were more mixed then with CW;  I can't see how 67% is a disaster.  This is what CBM are now.  Huge opening weekend and then average to weak legs. Maybe something like Doctor Strange can have a merely solid opening and stretch it out if WOM is strong but more and more it's going to be big frontloading followed by  "meh"

[Flyingcow29]

Looks like 43.54 for SS according to ercboxoffice on twitter.

[Nova]

1

(1)

Suicide Squad

Warner Bros.

$43,536,013

-67%

4,255

$10,232

$222,640,741

10

[Gandalf the Off-White]

Yeah the-numbers is saying SS is at 43.53m. So it dropped....

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

Civil War dropped 60% and that was a movie that critics loved and had a very strong positive reaction overall.  So SS a film that critics did not just dislike but loathed and audiences were more mixed then with CW;  I can't see how 67% is a disaster.  This is what CBM are now.  Huge opening weekend and then average to weak legs. Maybe something like Doctor Strange can have a merely solid opening and stretch it out if WOM is strong but more and more it's going to be big frontloading followed by  "meh"

Think it's pretty tough for any $125M+ DOM OW CBM not to dip close to or over 60%. And, while I agree with much of what you said, I do very much believe a non-sequel like SS has an inherent advantage going into its second weekend over a movie in which you kind of had to have watch (CA:FA, CA:WS, TA, AoU, IM, IM2, IM3, etc.) a collection of movies to truly get it. Usually the way down the line sequels even if well regarded, as HP movies have proven, have MUCH more upfront demand than what's essentially a non-sequel.