chasmmi Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Week 6 Scores: Name Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Total Exxdee 30000 6000 13000 49000 damienroc 33000 13000 46000 JJ8 26000 9000 8000 43000 wrathofhan 32000 8000 40000 spaghetti 33000 2000 35000 greyghost 29000 4000 33000 darkelf 30000 2000 32000 movieman 29000 2000 31000 fancyarcher 18000 12000 0 30000 chasmmi 25000 4000 29000 blankments 15000 12000 0 27000 tele 25000 2000 27000 That one guy 24000 2000 26000 cooleric 22000 0 22000 wrath 22000 0 22000 Jakegittes 37000 4000 41000 kayumanggi 15000 0 15000 dajk 14000 0 14000 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Week 7 answers: 1. Will Incarnate open to less than $7.5m? YES 2. Will Incarnate open to Less than $5m? 3000 YES 3. Will Incarnate open in the top 5? NO 4. Will Moana drop more than 52.5%? NO 5. Will Moana drop more than 55%? 2000 NO 6. Will Fantastic Beasts drop more than 52.5%? YES 7. Will Fantastic Beasts drop more than 55%? YES 8. Will Jackie have a PTA above $30,000? YES 9. Will Jackie have a PTA above $45,000? 2000 YES 10. Will anything drop less than 38% without increasing in theatres? NO 11. Will Allied stay above Trolls? YES 12. Will Rules Don't Apply drop more than 70%? NO 13. Will Almost Christmas cross $40M? 3000 NO 14. Will Arrival remain in the top 5? YES 15. Will at least 2 films increase more than 200% on Friday? YES 16. Will any film drop less than 35% on Sunday? 2000 YES 17. Will Edge of Seventeen have a PTA above $1000? YES (BY 18 CENTS) 18. Will Boo stay above Miss Peregine? 3000 NO 19. Will Bad Santa stay above ALmost Christmas? YES 20. Will Incarnate take advantage of its prime spot of having no big competing new releases and storm its way to a 3 figure OW? IT MANAGED A 6 FIGURE OPENING... JUST. Bonus: 14/20 2000 15/20 3000 16/20 5000 17/20 7000 18/20 10000 19/20 14000 20/20 20000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Dr Stange's Weekend Gross $6.68M 2. Predict Incarnate's Saturday total $1.09M 3. What will Jackie's PTA be? $55,743 Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 4. ALLIED 6. TROLLS 9. INCARNATE 12. EDGE OF 17 15. ACCOUNTANT 18. BELIEVE 3/6 2000 points 4/6 5000 points 5/6 8000 points 6/6 13000 points 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Week 7 scores Name Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Total Jakegittes 37000 12000 4000 53000 wrathofhan 31000 16000 2000 49000 chasmmi 33000 8000 41000 fancyarcher 29000 8000 37000 Exxdee 31000 4000 35000 damienroc 33000 2000 35000 sadskidz 30000 4000 34000 cooleric 30000 4000 34000 kayumanggi 29000 4000 33000 blankments 32000 0 32000 bcf26 27000 4000 31000 tele 29000 2000 31000 That one guy 22000 8000 30000 wrath 20000 8000 28000 greyghost 23000 4000 27000 darkelf 25000 2000 27000 Can I just mentioned my utter contempt for part two this week. I was 30 thousand dollars away from winning Q1 and getting 7k, I was 4 thousand dollars away from winning Q2 and getting 12k, I was 7 fucking dollars away from winning Q3 and getting 9k So that is a total of $34,007 from a combined target of $6.82M away from scoring 28k in bonuses instead of sod all 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 SOTM 7 results: JakeGittes: 110000 kayumanggi: 110000 Tele: 100000 Exxdee: 80000 chasmmi: 75000 sadskidz: 66000 wrathofhan: 63000 damienroc: 60000 Fancyarcher: 63000 wrath: 57000 greyghost: 51000 Blankments: 45000 darkelf: 39000 Cooleric: 36000 bcf: 21000 Thatoneguy: 21000 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 HOLY SHIT PART 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 (edited) UGH, I've gotta quit missing a weekly here and a SOTM there. This kills me every single summer/winter game. Edited December 6, 2016 by MovieMan89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Damn, JakeGittes had a great week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 @chasmmi, you have questions 6 & 7 marked as "No", shouldn't they be "Yes"? FB dropped 59.8% This affects both the weeklies and the SOTM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Oh Looky is that an SOTM I see appearing upon yonder hill? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said: @chasmmi, you have questions 6 & 7 marked as "No", shouldn't they be "Yes"? FB dropped 59.8% This affects both the weeklies and the SOTM. Oh fucking arse and poo and shit and arse!!! Yeah, it seems Deadline's Friday numbers invaded my brain... Let me get to that... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, chasmmi said: Oh fucking arse and poo and shit and arse!!! Damn, that sucks. We appreciate the effort, chas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 I think its all fixed and if it isn't... well screw it its 3am and time for Beddy bye byes, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 4 hours ago, chasmmi said: Week 6 Scores: Name Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Total Jakegittes 37000 4000 21000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 (edited) 4 hours ago, chasmmi said: Week 7 scores Name Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Total Jakegittes 37000 12000 4000 53000 wrathofhan 31000 16000 2000 49000 chasmmi 33000 8000 41000 fancyarcher 29000 8000 37000 Exxdee 31000 4000 35000 damienroc 33000 2000 35000 sadskidz 30000 4000 34000 cooleric 30000 4000 34000 kayumanggi 29000 4000 33000 blankments 32000 0 32000 bcf26 27000 4000 31000 tele 29000 2000 31000 That one guy 22000 8000 30000 wrath 20000 8000 28000 greyghost 23000 4000 27000 darkelf 25000 2000 27000 Can I just mentioned my utter contempt for part two this week. I was 30 thousand dollars away from winning Q1 and getting 7k, I was 4 thousand dollars away from winning Q2 and getting 12k, I was 7 fucking dollars away from winning Q3 and getting 9k So that is a total of $34,007 from a combined target of $6.82M away from scoring 28k in bonuses instead of sod all God damn it! So, for over a year I did the weekly BOT User Predictions thing where I'd get people's projections for each weeks' new openers. I'd then compare the predictions to the actuals and then track how everyone did in absolute terms and then relative to each other as well as other places I could find predictions (BO.com, Deadline, etc). I took a break for a bit, but its back up and running again. Anyway, one of the main things I got out of it was that while some predictors are arguably better than others, no one with a decent sized body of predicts was as good as our collective wisdom. No matter how you looked at it, over time, the mean of our predictions was significantly more accurate than any of us. And our median was slightly better than our mean (and this is over probably a couple hundred movies of all sizes). So, my strategy with the weeklies was going to be to wait as long as I feasibly could (which might not be very long, but still) and then take the most popular answers from other folks, basically replicating the median answer when you've only got 2 options. Give how well it performed with the predictions, I thought it was a pretty clever strategy. And now, 7 weeks into the competition, its getting me absolutely slaughtered. I have no idea how I'm giving what I calculated to be the most common answers to various questions and then doing dramatically worse than the pack, but that seems to somehow be how its working out. Edited December 6, 2016 by Wrath 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 hours ago, chasmmi said: Oh fucking arse and poo and shit and arse!!! Yeah, it seems Deadline's Friday numbers invaded my brain... Let me get to that... I wish I could claim some altruistic motivation, but truth be told my SOTM success depended on that. Thanks of course for all your hard work grading it all out. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 23 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said: I wish I could claim some altruistic motivation, but truth be told my SOTM success depended on that. Thanks of course for all your hard work grading it all out. Alot of people should be thanking you for doubling their SOTM points. Myself included. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 I think everything is now in order ready for @JJ-8 to do his thing 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Righto... here's the updated table (including the 10k bonus ) # User Pre- season Entry GRAND TOTAL PreSeason Total SOTM Total SOTM 7 Weekly's Total Week 6 Week 7 1 WrathofHan YES 387,000 10,000 76,000 63,000 301,000 40000 49000 2 kayumanggi YES 371,000 10,000 84,000 110,000 277,000 15000 33000 3 Exxdee YES 367,000 10,000 112,000 80,000 245,000 49000 35000 4 Chasmmi YES 365,000 10,000 107,000 75,000 248,000 29000 41000 5 Jake Gittes YES 363,000 10,000 142,000 110,000 211,000 41000 53000 6 DamienRoc YES 361,000 10,000 73,000 60,000 278,000 46000 35000 7 Telemachos YES 327,000 10,000 113,000 100,000 204,000 27000 31000 8 CoolEric258 YES 313,000 10,000 49,000 36,000 254,000 22000 34000 9 Blankments YES 303,000 10,000 15,000 45,000 278,000 27000 32000 10 darkelf YES 293,000 10,000 52,000 39,000 231,000 32000 27000 11 Spaghetti YES 274,000 10,000 13,000 251,000 35000 12 Fancyarcher YES 265,000 10,000 95,000 63,000 160,000 30000 37000 13 bcf26 YES 262,000 10,000 31,000 21,000 221,000 31000 14 grey ghost YES 257,000 10,000 61,000 51,000 186,000 33000 27000 15 Wrath YES 241,000 10,000 67,000 57,000 164,000 22000 28000 16 That One Guy YES 232,000 10,000 34,000 21,000 188,000 26000 30000 17 DAJK YES 220,000 10,000 13,000 197,000 14000 18 JJ-8 YES 195,000 10,000 13,000 172,000 43000 19 MovieMan89 YES 189,000 10,000 -5,000 184,000 31000 20 sakskidz YES 187,000 10,000 30,000 66,000 147,000 34000 21 glassfairy YES 160,000 10,000 10,000 140,000 22 Chewy YES 126,000 10,000 13,000 103,000 23 Randomjc NO 46,000 0 -5,000 51,000 24 YourMother YES 5,000 10,000 -5,000 0 BOOM! oh and i suck missing probably a big turnaround week due that stupid SOTM 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Not even in the top half 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...