Chasmmi's Winter Game | In a big shock | Wrath & The old man (Tele) crash the party stealing the win from Jake Gittes.... DamienRoc crashed and burned.....

[chasmmi]

Week 6 Scores:

 

Name	Part 1	Part 2	Part 3	Total
Exxdee	30000	6000	13000	49000
damienroc	33000		13000	46000
JJ8	26000	9000	8000	43000
wrathofhan	32000		8000	40000
spaghetti	33000		2000	35000
greyghost	29000		4000	33000
darkelf	30000		2000	32000
movieman	29000		2000	31000
fancyarcher	18000	12000	0	30000
chasmmi	25000		4000	29000
blankments	15000	12000	0	27000
tele	25000		2000	27000
That one guy	24000		2000	26000
cooleric	22000		0	22000
wrath	22000		0	22000
Jakegittes	37000		4000	41000
kayumanggi	15000		0	15000
dajk	14000		0	14000

[chasmmi]

Week 7 answers:

 

1. Will Incarnate open to less than $7.5m? YES

2. Will Incarnate open to Less than $5m? 3000 YES

3. Will Incarnate open in the top 5? NO

4. Will Moana drop more than 52.5%? NO

5. Will Moana drop more than 55%? 2000 NO

6. Will Fantastic Beasts drop more than 52.5%? YES 

7. Will Fantastic Beasts drop more than 55%? YES

 

8. Will Jackie have a PTA above $30,000?  YES

9. Will Jackie have a PTA above $45,000? 2000 YES

10. Will anything drop less than 38% without increasing in theatres? NO

11. Will Allied stay above Trolls? YES

12. Will Rules Don't Apply drop more than 70%? NO

13. Will Almost Christmas cross $40M? 3000 NO

14. Will Arrival remain in the top 5? YES

 

15. Will at least 2 films increase more than 200% on Friday? YES

16. Will any film drop less than 35% on Sunday? 2000 YES

17. Will Edge of Seventeen have a PTA above $1000? YES (BY 18 CENTS)

18. Will Boo stay above Miss Peregine? 3000 NO

19. Will Bad Santa stay above ALmost Christmas? YES

20. Will Incarnate take advantage of its prime spot of having no big competing new releases and storm its way to a 3 figure OW? IT MANAGED A 6 FIGURE OPENING... JUST. 

 

Bonus:

 

14/20 2000

15/20 3000

16/20 5000

17/20 7000

18/20 10000

19/20 14000

20/20 20000

 

Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000)

 

1. Predict Dr Stange's Weekend Gross $6.68M

2. Predict Incarnate's Saturday total  $1.09M

3. What will Jackie's PTA be? $55,743

 

Part 3:  Predict the films that place in the following positions:

 

4. ALLIED

6. TROLLS

9. INCARNATE

12. EDGE OF 17

15. ACCOUNTANT

18. BELIEVE

 

3/6 2000 points

4/6 5000 points

5/6 8000 points

6/6 13000 points

[chasmmi]

Week 7 scores

 

Name	Part 1	Part 2	Part 3	Total
Jakegittes	37000	12000	4000	53000
wrathofhan	31000	16000	2000	49000
chasmmi	33000		8000	41000
fancyarcher	29000		8000	37000
Exxdee	31000		4000	35000
damienroc	33000		2000	35000
sadskidz	30000		4000	34000
cooleric	30000		4000	34000
kayumanggi	29000		4000	33000
blankments	32000		0	32000
bcf26	27000		4000	31000
tele	29000		2000	31000
That one guy	22000		8000	30000
wrath	20000		8000	28000
greyghost	23000		4000	27000
darkelf	25000		2000	27000

 

Can I just mentioned my utter contempt for part two this week.

 

I was 30 thousand dollars away from winning Q1 and getting 7k,

I was 4 thousand dollars away from winning Q2 and getting 12k,

I was 7 fucking dollars away from winning Q3 and getting 9k

 

So that is a total of $34,007 from a combined target of $6.82M away from scoring 28k in bonuses instead of sod all  

[chasmmi]

SOTM 7 results: 

 

JakeGittes: 110000

kayumanggi: 110000

Tele: 100000

Exxdee: 80000

chasmmi: 75000

 

sadskidz: 66000

wrathofhan: 63000

damienroc: 60000

Fancyarcher: 63000

wrath: 57000

 

greyghost: 51000

Blankments: 45000

darkelf: 39000

Cooleric: 36000

bcf: 21000

Thatoneguy: 21000

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

HOLY SHIT PART 2  

[MovieMan89]

UGH, I've gotta quit missing a weekly here and a SOTM there. This kills me every single summer/winter game. 

Edited December 6, 2016 by MovieMan89

[BadAtGender]

Damn, JakeGittes had a great week. 

[Plain Old Tele]

@chasmmi, you have questions 6 & 7 marked as "No", shouldn't they be "Yes"? FB dropped 59.8%

 

This affects both the weeklies and the SOTM. 

[chasmmi]

Oh Looky is that an SOTM I see appearing upon yonder hill?

 

 

[chasmmi]

9 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

@chasmmi, you have questions 6 & 7 marked as "No", shouldn't they be "Yes"? FB dropped 59.8%

 

This affects both the weeklies and the SOTM. 

 

Oh fucking arse and poo and shit and arse!!! 

 

Yeah, it seems Deadline's Friday numbers invaded my brain... 

 

Let me get to that...

 

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, chasmmi said:

 

Oh fucking arse and poo and shit and arse!!! 

 

 

Damn, that sucks.

 

We appreciate the effort, chas.

[chasmmi]

I think its all fixed and if it isn't... well screw it its 3am and time for Beddy bye byes, 

[Jake Gittes]

4 hours ago, chasmmi said:

Week 6 Scores:

 

Name	Part 1	Part 2	Part 3	Total
Jakegittes	37000		4000	21000

 

[Wrath]

4 hours ago, chasmmi said:

Week 7 scores

 

Name	Part 1	Part 2	Part 3	Total
Jakegittes	37000	12000	4000	53000
wrathofhan	31000	16000	2000	49000
chasmmi	33000		8000	41000
fancyarcher	29000		8000	37000
Exxdee	31000		4000	35000
damienroc	33000		2000	35000
sadskidz	30000		4000	34000
cooleric	30000		4000	34000
kayumanggi	29000		4000	33000
blankments	32000		0	32000
bcf26	27000		4000	31000
tele	29000		2000	31000
That one guy	22000		8000	30000
wrath	20000		8000	28000
greyghost	23000		4000	27000
darkelf	25000		2000	27000

 

Can I just mentioned my utter contempt for part two this week.

 

I was 30 thousand dollars away from winning Q1 and getting 7k,

I was 4 thousand dollars away from winning Q2 and getting 12k,

I was 7 fucking dollars away from winning Q3 and getting 9k

 

So that is a total of $34,007 from a combined target of $6.82M away from scoring 28k in bonuses instead of sod all  

 

God damn it! So, for over a year I did the weekly BOT User Predictions thing where I'd get people's projections for each weeks' new openers. I'd then compare the predictions to the actuals and then track how everyone did in absolute terms and then relative to each other as well as other places I could find predictions (BO.com, Deadline, etc). I took a break for a bit, but its back up and running again.

 

Anyway, one of the main things I got out of it was that while some predictors are arguably better than others, no one with a decent sized body of predicts was as good as our collective wisdom. No matter how you looked at it, over time, the mean of our predictions was significantly more accurate than any of us. And our median was slightly better than our mean (and this is over probably a couple hundred movies of all sizes).

 

So, my strategy with the weeklies was going to be to wait as long as I feasibly could (which might not be very long, but still) and then take the most popular answers from other folks, basically replicating the median answer when you've only got 2 options. Give how well it performed with the predictions, I thought it was a pretty clever strategy. And now, 7 weeks into the competition, its getting me absolutely slaughtered. I have no idea how I'm giving what I calculated to be the most common answers to various questions and then doing dramatically worse than the pack, but that seems to somehow be how its working out.

Edited December 6, 2016 by Wrath

[Plain Old Tele]

3 hours ago, chasmmi said:

 

Oh fucking arse and poo and shit and arse!!! 

 

Yeah, it seems Deadline's Friday numbers invaded my brain... 

 

Let me get to that...

 

 

I wish I could claim some altruistic motivation, but truth be told my SOTM success depended on that.  

 

Thanks of course for all your hard work grading it all out. 

[grey ghost]

23 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

I wish I could claim some altruistic motivation, but truth be told my SOTM success depended on that.  

 

Thanks of course for all your hard work grading it all out. 

 

Alot of people should be thanking you for doubling their SOTM points.

 

Myself included. 

[chasmmi]

I think everything is now in order ready for @JJ-8 to do his thing  

[JJ-8]

Righto... here's the updated table (including the 10k bonus )

 

#	User	Pre- season Entry	GRAND TOTAL	PreSeason Total	SOTM Total	SOTM 7	Weekly's Total	Week 6	Week 7
1	WrathofHan	YES	387,000	10,000	76,000	63,000	301,000	40000	49000
2	kayumanggi	YES	371,000	10,000	84,000	110,000	277,000	15000	33000
3	Exxdee	YES	367,000	10,000	112,000	80,000	245,000	49000	35000
4	Chasmmi	YES	365,000	10,000	107,000	75,000	248,000	29000	41000
5	Jake Gittes	YES	363,000	10,000	142,000	110,000	211,000	41000	53000
6	DamienRoc	YES	361,000	10,000	73,000	60,000	278,000	46000	35000
7	Telemachos	YES	327,000	10,000	113,000	100,000	204,000	27000	31000
8	CoolEric258	YES	313,000	10,000	49,000	36,000	254,000	22000	34000
9	Blankments	YES	303,000	10,000	15,000	45,000	278,000	27000	32000
10	darkelf	YES	293,000	10,000	52,000	39,000	231,000	32000	27000
11	Spaghetti	YES	274,000	10,000	13,000		251,000	35000
12	Fancyarcher	YES	265,000	10,000	95,000	63,000	160,000	30000	37000
13	bcf26	YES	262,000	10,000	31,000	21,000	221,000		31000
14	grey ghost	YES	257,000	10,000	61,000	51,000	186,000	33000	27000
15	Wrath	YES	241,000	10,000	67,000	57,000	164,000	22000	28000
16	That One Guy	YES	232,000	10,000	34,000	21,000	188,000	26000	30000
17	DAJK	YES	220,000	10,000	13,000		197,000	14000
18	JJ-8	YES	195,000	10,000	13,000		172,000	43000
19	MovieMan89	YES	189,000	10,000	-5,000		184,000	31000
20	sakskidz	YES	187,000	10,000	30,000	66,000	147,000		34000
21	glassfairy	YES	160,000	10,000	10,000		140,000
22	Chewy	YES	126,000	10,000	13,000		103,000
23	Randomjc	NO	46,000	0	-5,000		51,000
24	YourMother	YES	5,000	10,000	-5,000		0

 

BOOM!

oh and i suck missing probably a big turnaround week due that stupid SOTM 

[WrathOfHan]

[That One Girl]

Not even in the top half