DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 07.26.2024 | Disney | latest trailer on page 76

[JustWatching]

I think Deadpool will do fine. Just the fact that with Aquaman 2’s release, the covid-induced backlog of CBMs has finally been cleared should help. We’ve had 20 superhero movies in the past 30 months (21 if you count Super Pets) and at least to me it’s no surprise that a lot of the audience noped out after a while. Now we get a six month break, except for Madam Web, which like three people are going to see. By the time we get to the end of July the GA may be in a better mood for the genre.

[emoviefan]

Honestly I do not think people around here are giving the GA enough credit. They can and have separated Deadpool from the rest of the genre in the past by the very nature of him breaking the fourth wall and commenting on the tropes and the aburdisties of the genre. If this movie continues that then there should be no worries. Now if they just play it straight and make every mistake the MCU has been making lately then yeah the BO will suffer. I chose to believe Feige and the execs are aware of that and want to turn things around and they let Reynolds and Maximum Effort his Production company make the movie. If not they deserve everything they get. 

[TheFlatLannister]

9 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I get where you're coming from, but this movie has a fantastic selling point in Ryan Reynolds's Deadpool finally meeting Hugh Jackman's iconic Wolverine, two characters who are institutions of their own, who can thrive even when the larger Marvel universe is in decay.

I don’t think people realize how big of a deal this is to comic book fans. We will know for sure when presales start but I’m expecting something massive…

[babz06]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I don’t think people realize how big of a deal this is to comic book fans. We will know for sure when presales start but I’m expecting something massive…

Comicbook fans is the key word here. I’m not sure general audiences will care. 

[HummingLemon496]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I don’t think people realize how big of a deal this is to comic book fans. We will know for sure when presales start but I’m expecting something massive…

November 20th, 2023 was an absolutely legendary day for the tracking thread

 

But it'll look like a footnote in comparison to the day Deadpool III tickets go on sale

[HummingLemon496]

As crazy as it sounds, I would not be surprised if this opens to sub-$100M

[MovieMan89]

5 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I don’t think people realize how big of a deal this is to comic book fans. We will know for sure when presales start but I’m expecting something massive…

Ehhhh… that group of the CBM audience has always been very niche and not at all responsible for the genres monster smash hits. 
 

The real question is does the GA care THAT much about Hugh’s “Im back ONE more time!!!”  shtick for literally the 4th time in a row? Especially when X-Men is very strictly a 30 something nostalgia franchise at this point, so you’re not really courting most age demos (including the important teen/20s). 

[emoviefan]

6 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

As crazy as it sounds, I would not be surprised if this opens to sub-$100M

Yeah sure let's go with that based on no evidence we have been given so far.

[HummingLemon496]

13 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah sure let's go with that based on no evidence we have been given so far.

I am a HUGE supporter of Deadpool 3 and I hope it blasts to $175M+, but. . .

 

GOTG 3 makes me think there's a small chance if it's bad. If you read through the tracking thread, was a time when Guardians 3 OW could've opened with an 8 (or even a 7) in front of it. Of course it missed the sub-$100M doom due to absolutely great reception, but it most likely would've missed triple digits if it had bad reception like Doctor Strange 2/Thor 4/Ant-Man 3. That is terrible! And this is Guardians 3 we're talking about, a finale to a trilogy where the last one opened to $146M+ back in 2017 and easily would've cleared $200M back in May 2022. But was sadly ganked by the poor reception to Doctor Strange, Thor, and Ant-Man.

 

Those three movies made a permanent stain on this franchise which cannot be erased. . .at all. This would've been the easiest $200M+ event back in May 2022.

 

 

Edited January 23 by HummingLemon496

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I am a HUGE supporter of Deadpool 3 and I hope it blasts to $175M+, but. . .

 

GOTG 3 makes me think there's a small chance if it's bad. If you read through the tracking thread, was a time when Guardians 3 OW could've opened with an 8 (or even a 7) in front of it. Of course it missed the sub-$100M doom due to absolutely great reception, but it most likely would've missed triple digits if it had bad reception like Doctor Strange 2/Thor 4/Ant-Man 3. That is terrible! And this is Guardians 3 we're talking about, a finale to a trilogy where the last one opened to $146M+ back in 2017 and easily would've cleared $200M back in May 2022. But was sadly ganked by the poor reception to Doctor Strange, Thor, and Ant-Man

 

 

Got it. The problem when you or other people say stuff like this it comes off like trolling considering we are still 6 months from release and still  3 weeks from the first trailer assuming it drops during the Super Bowl. The hype will go through the roof that day. Now if all the buzz coming from people at superbowl parties is groan groan another Marvel movie don't care then yeah let's talk then. Once again as I said earlier the GA is smart enough to see Deadpool as different and not the same old Marvel unless they sell as it the same old Marvel then like I said let's talk. 

[HummingLemon496]

49 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Got it. The problem when you or other people say stuff like this it comes off like trolling considering we are still 6 months from release and still  3 weeks from the first trailer assuming it drops during the Super Bowl. The hype will go through the roof that day. Now if all the buzz coming from people at superbowl parties is groan groan another Marvel movie don't care then yeah let's talk then. Once again as I said earlier the GA is smart enough to see Deadpool as different and not the same old Marvel unless they sell as it the same old Marvel then like I said let's talk. 

I hope so. . .I really hope this can be the Aquaman (2018 ofc) of this cursed saga and just kind of work as its own thing. Being a year and a half away from Quantumania should help a lot, and nobody watched The Marvels so it probably didn't damage the brand that much

 

 

[SpiderByte]

Oh my God why are you so insistent on comparing this to Guardians 3, a movie that did not do below 100 OW anyways 

Edited January 23 by SpiderByte

[TheFlatLannister]

8 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

As crazy as it sounds, I would not be surprised if this opens to sub-$100M

It could collapse like previous MCU titles in late presales but imo it will be an Antman or Thor situation where presales simply started too hot to go sub $100M

[HummingLemon496]

26 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Oh my God why are you so insistent on comparing this to Guardians 3, a movie that did not do below 100 OW anyways 

Both are hyped 3rd entries in well liked and successful Marvel trilogies. Guardians 1 + 2 and Deadpool 1 + 2 made around similar numbers so it's an apt comparison. 

 

Anyways, yes, it is true that GOTG 3 did not open below 100. But the absolutely great reception in the end REALLY helped its momentum. If it got a B/B+ like Doctor Strange/Thor/Ant-Man then it would've gone sub 100. And this is a film that would've easily done 200+ back in May 2022. But instead IRL in May 2023 it only opened to 118. . .because of the bad reception from Multiverse of Madness/Thor/Ant-Man 3.

 

That's my point. The bad reception from Doctor Strange/Thor/Ant-Man and newcomer Marvels will gank Deadpool 3 the same way it ganked GOTG 3. If DP3 is a bad movie. . .then things can get real ugly. 

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It could collapse like previous MCU titles in late presales but imo it will be an Antman or Thor situation where presales simply started too hot to go sub $100M

Speaking of which, this is a topic that interests me: What would have Multiverse of Madness, Thor, and Ant-Man would have opened to if they had good reception (A on CinemaScore)?

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Both are hyped 3rd entries in well liked and successful Marvel trilogies. Guardians 1 + 2 and Deadpool 1 + 2 made around similar numbers so it's an apt comparison. 

 

Anyways, yes, it is true that GOTG 3 did not open below 100. But the absolutely great reception in the end REALLY helped its momentum. If it got a B/B+ like Doctor Strange/Thor/Ant-Man then it would've gone sub 100. And this is a film that would've easily done 200+ back in May 2022. But instead IRL in May 2023 it only opened to 118. . .because of the bad reception from Multiverse of Madness/Thor/Ant-Man 3.

 

That's my point. The bad reception from Doctor Strange/Thor/Ant-Man and newcomer Marvels will gank Deadpool 3 the same way it ganked GOTG 3. If DP3 is a bad movie. . .then things can get real ugly. 

[HummingLemon496]

12 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

 

 

@Legion Again can confirm what I said was true 

 

Edited January 23 by HummingLemon496

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

 

 

@Legion Again can confirm what I said was true 

 

Once again 6 months from release 3 weeks till a trailer. So everything right now is if if if

[HummingLemon496]

7 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Once again 6 months from release 3 weeks till a trailer. So everything right now is if if if

Yes, true. But as someone who unironically thought GOTG would open to 200+ I wanna be pessimistic so I don't get burned 

 

And I'm still mad about GOTG 3's OW and wish it came out in May 2022. . .so that's why I'm insistent on comparing it to GOTG 3.

Edited January 23 by HummingLemon496

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yes, true. But as someone who unironically thought GOTG would open to 200+ I wanna be pessimistic so I don't get burned 

 

And I'm still mad about GOTG 3's OW and wish it came out in May 2022. . .so that's why I'm insistent on comparing it to GOTG 3.

You do understand that Guardians 3 is the same movie whether it made 118 or 200 million OW and a final total of 358 or 400 + right. Yeah it sucks that it did not make more because of Marvel burnout or whatever you want to call it. But it is the same movie you can enjoy whenever you want and it did not kill the Guardians franchise because it was the last one anyway and it was still a big hit.  And Deadpool 3 is not comparable to it any way what so ever. because as you said nobody saw The Marvels anyway or at least far fewer than saw Quantamania and the GA is smart enough to make those determinations and not just go ewww another CBM I don't care and guess what if it is bad it deserves to bomb then anyway.