Weekend Thread | est. DS 43 | Trolls 35 | Arrival 24 | Alm.X-Mas 15.56 | Hacksaw 10.77 | Account. 4.57 |

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Arrival should follow Looper at least. $70M+ is on the table.

 

So it should make the top 15 in the Winter Game.

 

 

This season's game is going to be a rollercoaster.

 

 

[Scubasteve716]

If accountant really does get 4.5 this weekend does it have a shot at 100m?

[Finnick]

First updates:

 

[BenedictL11]

3 minutes ago, Scubasteve716 said:

If accountant really does get 4.5 this weekend does it have a shot at 100m?

 

Sadly, no. However, it can still make $85M total.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Scubasteve716 said:

If accountant really does get 4.5 this weekend does it have a shot at 100m?

No, it's gonna be shedding too many theaters the next two weeks (with a combined 8 wide releases opening). $85-90M is where it will land.

[druv10]

8 minutes ago, Finnick said:

First updates:

 

14.9M

17.1M(+15%)

10.12M(-40%)

42.2M(-51%)

[CJohn]

Again, just a fantastic weekend for everything. Veteran's Day should be always the first Monday or first Friday of November to give us these beautiful numbers every year.

[Finnick]

Excellent for Trolls, ShutIn tumbles!!!

 

Edited November 12, 2016 by Finnick

[druv10]

6 minutes ago, Finnick said:

Excellent for Trolls, ShutIn tumbles!!!

 

Total for Trolls is wrong. It should be around 70M.

[Finnick]

Updates Deadline

 

5th Writethru , Saturday AM after Friday 11:30PM: Moviegoing is getting quite a boost this weekend thanks to Veterans Day falling on a Friday. Not only are holdovers strong, but wide entries such as Paramount’s Arrival and Universal’s Almost Christmas are beating their tracking forecasts. And as distribution suits like to say, when there’s a majority of titles appealing to various crowds, it’s an embarrassment of riches.

 

With students from Kindergarten to college off today, Friday ticket sales from the top 28 titles totaled $55.1M,  which is +133% over last year’s Veterans Day which fell on a Wednesday. Still, box office analysts believe the weekend is frontloaded with total ticket sales falling to $52M on Saturday, and $30M on Sunday. Typically, it’s Saturday that’s the highest day in the FSS cycle.

Based early morning estimates, Disney/Marvel’s Doctor Strange collected $14.9M on Friday taking its 3-day to $43M which will easily beat the $36.6M second weekend of Marvel’s previous fall superhero movie Thor: The Dark World. By Sunday, Doctor‘s running cume of $153M will be pacing 6% ahead of Thor 2 which finaled at $206.4M.

 

DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls from 20th Century Fox is looking at $34.5M at 4,066. Should the studio hit those numbers, it will rep the second best November sophomore hold for a feature toon from the Glendale studio (non-Aardman), just under Megamind‘s $35M.  Trolls also whips the second weekend of Fox’s pre-Thanksgiving hit last year The Peanuts Movie which grossed $24M.

 

However, the biggest surprise is coming from Paramount’s alien drama Arrival starring Amy Adams which is now looking at an estimated $23.4M FSS after a $9.3M Friday. This spells good news for Adams who is choosing Arrival over Nocturnal Animals as her awards season contender this year. A few weeks ago, rival distribution executives were rubbing their chins over the prospects for this indie title directed by Denis Villeneuve. Paramount snapped it up at the 2014 Cannes Film Festival for $20M (that includes China and domestic). Forecasts had it opening at $15M, with some projections below that.  For a film that also comes with an estimated $40M P&A spend per rivals, this is a very good start for Arrival, and the studio is hoping that its 94% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes score carries the film to even greater multiples this holiday season. CinemaScore is a B, but given the older female appeal of this movie, we could see a better than expected 2.9 multiple which typically comes with that grade.

Arrival is not Gravity, and it isn’t The Martian as far as spectacle, rather it’s more emotionally driven at a slower pace, and with a twist. That said, Paramount marketed this movie like it was an everyman tentpole, pushing out TV spots during the summer Olympics as well as games 1,5,6, and 7 of the World Series, the Presidential Debates, the Walking Dead season premiere and NFL games. Arrival had an extensive airport outdoor presence in New York and Los Angeles playing on the title “Arrival”. A slew of festivals — London, TIFF, Fantastic Fest, Chicago Int’l, Philadelphia, Savannah, Spectrefest, and Beyond Fest–fueled critical and awards voter word of mouth. A 24-hour YouTube Masthead featured a :60 spot and drew 235M impressions. This Common Ground video piece, which launched with media support via Facebook and YouTube (1.7M), was in an effort to draw females to the movie:

 

[CJohn]

Shut In is actually performing in a best case scenario situation, IMO. Crazy Friday.

[La Binoche]

1 hour ago, ACSlater said:

 

Umm it's Amy Adams...

 

Amy Adams is not really a box office draw, and Arrival is way artsier than the previews indicate. It's closer to The Tree of Life than Independence Day. 

[La Binoche]

Oh wait I just saw this on Deadline: 

 

Twenty-nine percent of those who arrived at the theater to watch  Arrival came because of Adams which is a solid drew for a headliner.

 

[DAJK]

 

 

BoxOffice–  ‏@BoxOffice

Official Friday Estimates: #Arrival ($9.355M); #HacksawRidge ($3.8M/$25.3M Total)

8:16 AM - 12 Nov 2016

1 RETWEET

Edited November 12, 2016 by DAJK

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Oh wait I just saw this on Deadline: 

 

Twenty-nine percent of those who arrived at the theater to watch  Arrival came because of Adams which is a solid drew for a headliner.

 

All hail the Queen.

 

[DAJK]

I'm scared hacksaw ridge is going to perform too much like Selma, a movie that many thought would hold on extremely well (deservedly so) but ended up somewhat getting lost and making 50M total.

[kswiston]

Doctor Strange's second weekend won't end up too far under Suicide Squad's second weekend. 

 

I don't see why $250M is out of grasp if Fantastic Beasts doesn't completely kill its third weekend. $225M is looking pretty good in any case. 

Edited November 12, 2016 by kswiston

[Finnick]

@terrestrial   Thanks for the note.

 

 

TD	YD	Title (Click to View)	Studio	Daily Gross	% +/- YD / LW		Theaters / Avg		Gross To-Date	Day
1	1	Doctor Strange	BV	$14,919,000	+149%	-54%	3,882	$3,843	$124,901,169	8
2	2	Trolls	Fox	$12,215,000	+333%	-1%	4,066	$3,004	$71,179,315	8
3	-	Arrival	Par.	$9,355,000	-	-	2,317	$4,038	$9,355,000	1
4	-	Almost Christmas	Uni.	$5,900,000	-	-	2,376	$2,483	$5,900,000	1
5	3	Hacksaw Ridge	LGF	$3,800,000	+140%	-29%	2,971	$1,279	$25,289,321	8
6	4	The Accountant	WB	$1,520,000	+145%	-14%	2,342	$649	$74,675,755	29
7	-	Shut In	EC	$1,425,000	-	-	2,058	$692	$1,425,000	1
8	7	Boo! A Madea Halloween	LGF	$1,230,000	+192%	-43%	2,104	$585	$68,088,079	22
9	6	Jack Reacher: Never Go Back	Par.	$1,160,000	+122%	-29%	2,584	$449	$52,421,711	22
10	5	Inferno	Sony	$1,125,000	+98%	-40%	2,656	$424	$29,457,015	15
11	8	Ouija: Origin of Evil	Uni.	$622,000	+102%	-47%	1,538	$404	$33,132,090	22
12	9	The Girl on the Train (2016)	Uni.	$568,000	+108%	-32%	1,008	$563	$72,271,130	36
-	11	Moonlight (2016)	A24	$424,336	+232%	+12%	176	$2,411	$3,841,996	22
-	10	Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children	Fox	$415,000	+166%	-17%	955	$435	$84,362,107	43

[filmlover]

Also, Moonlight is still killing it in limited release. Could it eventually pass Ex Machina to become A24's biggest grosser to date?

[druv10]

1 minute ago, Finnick said:

@terrestrial   Thanks for the note.

 

 

TD	YD	Title (Click to View)	Studio	Daily Gross	% +/- YD / LW		Theaters / Avg		Gross To-Date	Day
1	1	Doctor Strange	BV	$14,919,000	+149%	-54%	3,882	$3,843	$124,901,169	8
2	2	Trolls	Fox	$12,215,000	+333%	-1%	4,066	$3,004	$71,179,315	8
3	-	Arrival	Par.	$9,355,000	-	-	2,317	$4,038	$9,355,000	1
4	-	Almost Christmas	Uni.	$5,900,000	-	-	2,376	$2,483	$5,900,000	1
5	3	Hacksaw Ridge	LGF	$3,800,000	+140%	-29%	2,971	$1,279	$25,289,321	8
6	4	The Accountant	WB	$1,520,000	+145%	-14%	2,342	$649	$74,675,755	29
7	-	Shut In	EC	$1,425,000	-	-	2,058	$692	$1,425,000	1
8	7	Boo! A Madea Halloween	LGF	$1,230,000	+192%	-43%	2,104	$585	$68,088,079	22
9	6	Jack Reacher: Never Go Back	Par.	$1,160,000	+122%	-29%	2,584	$449	$52,421,711	22
10	5	Inferno	Sony	$1,125,000	+98%	-40%	2,656	$424	$29,457,015	15
11	8	Ouija: Origin of Evil	Uni.	$622,000	+102%	-47%	1,538	$404	$33,132,090	22
12	9	The Girl on the Train (2016)	Uni.	$568,000	+108%	-32%	1,008	$563	$72,271,130	36
-	11	Moonlight (2016)	A24	$424,336	+232%	+12%	176	$2,411	$3,841,996	22
-	10	Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children	Fox	$415,000	+166%	-17%	955	$435	$84,362,107	43

Those are some great Friday numbers. October doldrums are behind us.