Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

[filmlover]

27 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Watched the trailer for Incarnate. Looks like Inception crossed with The Exorcist. At least it chose a good release date where no one will notice it bomb.

Next weekend will be all about Jackie and what's sure to be an explosive launch for it.

 

Anyone know its expansion plan btw?

[James]

Thanks to FB, The Wizarding World series passed the 8b border at the WW box office.

 

Worldwide (Unadjusted)

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year
1	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$1,341.5	$381.0	28.4%	$960.5	71.6%	2011
2	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	WB	$974.8	$317.6	32.6%	$657.2	67.4%	2001
3	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1	WB	$960.3	$296.0	30.8%	$664.3	69.2%	2010
4	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	WB	$939.9	$292.0	31.1%	$647.9	68.9%	2007
5	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	WB	$934.4	$302.0	32.3%	$632.5	67.7%	2009
6	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	WB	$896.9	$290.0	32.3%	$606.9	67.7%	2005
7	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	WB	$879.0	$262.0	29.8%	$617.0	70.2%	2002
8	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	WB	$796.7	$249.5	31.3%	$547.1	68.7%	2004
9	Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them	WB	$473.7	$156.2	33%	$317.5	67%	2016
TOTAL:			$8,197.2	$2,546.3	31.1%	$5,650.9	68.9%	-

 

FB should end up on #8 on that list, ahead of PoA.

[FantasticBeasts]

7 minutes ago, James said:

Thanks to FB, The Wizarding World series passed the 8b border at the WW box office.

 

Worldwide (Unadjusted)

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year
1	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$1,341.5	$381.0	28.4%	$960.5	71.6%	2011
2	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	WB	$974.8	$317.6	32.6%	$657.2	67.4%	2001
3	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1	WB	$960.3	$296.0	30.8%	$664.3	69.2%	2010
4	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	WB	$939.9	$292.0	31.1%	$647.9	68.9%	2007
5	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	WB	$934.4	$302.0	32.3%	$632.5	67.7%	2009
6	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	WB	$896.9	$290.0	32.3%	$606.9	67.7%	2005
7	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	WB	$879.0	$262.0	29.8%	$617.0	70.2%	2002
8	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	WB	$796.7	$249.5	31.3%	$547.1	68.7%	2004
9	Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them	WB	$473.7	$156.2	33%	$317.5	67%	2016
TOTAL:			$8,197.2	$2,546.3	31.1%	$5,650.9	68.9%	-

 

FB should end up on #8 on that list, ahead of PoA.

What a phenomenal movie series. Is this the biggest average per movie of all??

Edit: I checked it and it's second after the Avengers. $910m average 

Edit 2: If FB grosses 750m the average will rise to $940m

Edited November 27, 2016 by FantasticBeasts

[James]

4 minutes ago, water said:

 

what? basic math says that across its first 10 days fb has had an average of 9% better holds, and a 10% better second weekend hold. that's neither a big difference nor a surprise considering the older audience fb has

 

and defeat in what way? fb having a lower rt score than all hp and 2/4 thg movies, doing less ww than all hp and 2or3/4 thg movies, doing less dom than all hp and all thg movies? the only thing that's salty is my tears from how good moana was

LOL. You are in denial. It will beat all HG movies WW, except for CF. It will also very likely beat PoA. But it is a spin-off to the biggest movie franchise ever WW so it shouldn't be a surprise. THG/Twilight never reached the heights of Potter WW. 

[James]

4 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

What a phenomenal movie series. Is this the biggest average per movie of all??

Edit: I checked it and it's second after the Avengers. $910m average 

The average is that low because FB hasn't ended it's run yet. And Avengers is not really a good comp because if you include FB in the wizarding world, then you have to also include all the MCU movies with Avengers. The only franchise with higher average is the Middle Earth series (LOTR+TH), with around 974m average. 

[FantasticBeasts]

1 minute ago, James said:

The average is that low because FB hasn't ended it's run yet. And Avengers is not really a good comp because if you include FB in the wizarding world, then you have to also include all the MCU movies with Avengers. The only franchise with higher average is the Middle Earth series (LOTR+TH), with around 974m average. 

I edited my previous comments with a calculation that I did. Should FB grosses 750m the average will rise to $940m. Also, wiki has Middle Earth at $840m. What's the truth??

[water]

it will be very hard for fb to reach 750m ww

[Heretic]

2 minutes ago, water said:

it will be very hard for fb to reach 750m ww

 Clearly you're an expert, because FB is heading for at least 525m OS and 225m dom. So no, it won't be 'very hard'.

[water]

it will be hard for it to reach either of those numbers

[FantasticBeasts]

3 minutes ago, water said:

it will be very hard for fb to reach 750m ww

Stop making a fool of yourself. I mean I have nothing against you  but could you elaborate how this won't happen? I can discuss on 800m but 750m will happen.

[James]

9 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I edited my previous comments with a calculation that I did. Should FB grosses 750m the average will rise to $940m. Also, wiki has Middle Earth at $840m. What's the truth??

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year
1	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	NL	$1,119.1	$377.0	33.7%	$742.1	66.3%	2003
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	WB (NL)	$1,021.1	$303.0	29.7%	$718.1	70.3%	2012
3	The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug	WB (NL)	$958.4	$258.4	27%	$700.0	73%	2013
4	The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies	WB (NL)	$956.0	$255.1	26.7%	$700.9	73.3%	2014
5	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	NL	$923.3	$339.8	36.8%	$583.5	63.2%	2002
6	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	NL	$869.3	$313.4	36%	$556.0	64%	2001
TOTAL:			$5,847.2	$1,846.7	31.6%	$4,000.6	68.4%	-
AVERAGE:			$974.5	$307.8	31.6%	$666.8	68.4%

[FantasticBeasts]

Just now, James said:

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year
1	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	NL	$1,119.1	$377.0	33.7%	$742.1	66.3%	2003
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	WB (NL)	$1,021.1	$303.0	29.7%	$718.1	70.3%	2012
3	The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug	WB (NL)	$958.4	$258.4	27%	$700.0	73%	2013
4	The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies	WB (NL)	$956.0	$255.1	26.7%	$700.9	73.3%	2014
5	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	NL	$923.3	$339.8	36.8%	$583.5	63.2%	2002
6	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	NL	$869.3	$313.4	36%	$556.0	64%	2001
TOTAL:			$5,847.2	$1,846.7	31.6%	$4,000.6	68.4%	-
AVERAGE:			$974.5	$307.8	31.6%	$666.8	68.4%

They are counting a Lord of The Rings movie that made 30m...

[water]

if fb continues with its current legs it will get to 215m dom, and that os number is just unrealistic. it'll settle under 500 which i don't see why anyone would be disappointed by

[CJohn]

FB will reach 800M WW and 220M DOM. Fantastic results. WB has found a new license to print money.

[James]

5 minutes ago, Heretic said:

 Clearly you're an expert, because FB is heading for at least 525m OS and 225m dom. So no, it won't be 'very hard'.

 

4 minutes ago, water said:

it will be hard for it to reach either of those numbers

 Oh yeah, after having great drops OS this week it will COMPLETELY collapse. That makes sense. Seriously, it is at 317m after a 132m weekend. How on earth do you think it misses 525m. That's not even the floor at this point. As for DOM, even if it free falls 210m will still happen. For 750m it would need 540m OS. 750m is completely LOCKED. 800m is what we are talking about now. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Moana was pretty fantastic.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, James said:

 

 Oh yeah, after having great drops OS this week it will COMPLETELY collapse. That makes sense. Seriously, it is at 317m after a 132m weekend. How on earth do you think it misses 525m. That's not even the floor at this point. As for DOM, even if it free falls 210m will still happen. For 750m it would need 540m OS. 750m is completely LOCKED. 800m is what we are talking about now. 

It did 132M OS this weekend? Damn, that is huge.

[FantasticBeasts]

OS OW number was at 145m. witha near 2.7x multiplier this will get to 390m...100M is expected only from China...Let alone Japan...500m OS seems like a lock unless something very strange happens...I would bet on a 3x multplier which will make near 600m

[James]

Just now, CJohn said:

It did 132M OS this weekend? Damn, that is huge.

Additionally, the film added $132 million internationally this weekend, fueled by openings in China and Japan where it brought in an estimated $41.1 million and $15.5 million respectively. The film's global cume now stands at $473.7 million ranking thirteenth among all of 2016 releases. The three-day opening in China surpasses the lifetime grosses of all other films in J.K. Rowling's Wizarding Worldfranchise in that territory outside of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 ($60.8m).

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4245&p=.htm

[FantasticBeasts]

I guess you know more than boxofficeguru which is predicting 800m ww