filmlover Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: NBR and BP correlation: Director: Only 2 directors have been nominated this decade; every winner for the last 4 years has missed. Could the curse continue for Jenkins? There's 4 directors competing for the last three spots, so it's possible. Don't think so. The lineup IMO is gonna be Chazelle/Jenkins/Lonergan/Scorsese/Villeneuve with Larrain on the outside looking in. No one else is even gonna be a factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, filmlover said: Don't think so. The lineup IMO is gonna be Chazelle/Jenkins/Lonergan/Scorsese/Villeneuve with Larrain on the outside looking in. No one else is even gonna be a factor. That's a bit premature to say considering Benh Zeitlin and Lenny Abrahamson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Just now, Jake Gittes said: That's a bit premature to say considering Benh Zeitlin and Lenny Abrahamson. But who else is gonna factor in though? Berg (if Patriots' Day really becomes this year's American Sniper)? Eastwood? God help us all, Gibson (who is gonna need a few high quality movies, and zero outbursts along the way, to shake off his "pariah" status)? Washington isn't happening. And Affleck definitely isn't happening, especially with bad buzz starting to swirl around Live by Night (which even just got shutout by the one awards body that should've been an easy get). The race is pretty thin this year in Director. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 19 minutes ago, filmlover said: But who else is gonna factor in though? Berg (if Patriots' Day really becomes this year's American Sniper)? Eastwood? God help us all, Gibson (who is gonna need a few high quality movies, and zero outbursts along the way, to shake off his "pariah" status)? Washington isn't happening. And Affleck definitely isn't happening, especially with bad buzz starting to swirl around Live by Night (which even just got shutout by the one awards body that should've been an easy get). The race is pretty thin this year in Director. I'm just saying. No one saw Zeitlin or Abrahamson, not many would have called Haneke or Bennett Miller either. In the light of them I think Washington is certainly possible. Could be Berg or Eastwood, could be someone like Mike Mills for all we know. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 A couple of Oscar pundits that I trust alot say that Patriot's Day is playing insanely well with the guilds and might be a dark horse to even win the whole damn thing. I'm not predicting it, but I could see Berg sneaking in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said: I'm just saying. No one saw Zeitlin or Abrahamson, not many would have called Haneke or Bennett Miller either. In the light of them I think Washington is certainly possible. Could be Berg or Eastwood, could be someone like Mike Mills for all we know. I don't see a path for Washington (especially when Fences isn't even locked in for a BP nom). The stats are not in his favor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: A couple of Oscar pundits that I trust alot say that Patriot's Day is playing insanely well with the guilds and might be a dark horse to even win the whole damn thing. I'm not predicting it, but I could see Berg sneaking in. The power of Bahstan. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: A couple of Oscar pundits that I trust alot say that Patriot's Day is playing insanely well with the guilds and might be a dark horse to even win the whole damn thing. I'm not predicting it, but I could see Berg sneaking in. Just in case... I called it first. On 22.11.2016 at 11:40 PM, Jake Gittes said: Hey Spotlight just became the first movie to win BP and only one other Oscar since the 1950s, maybe Patriots' Day will be this century's Grand Hotel 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 if patriot's day becomes like a real thing then it could like get an editing nomination or something. it's switching between a bunch of different characters and storyline's isn't it? sounds like showy work for that branch. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 I'm trying to figure where Patriots' Day would figure in other than the top two categories, especially with the techs looking packed. Maybe Wahlberg is this year's "surprise!" nomination? Doesn't hurt that he's a previous nominee, I suppose. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 Patriots Day blends real documentary footage, interviews, and actual scenes. I could easily see it winning Editing if they like it. Probably could win both the sound cats, too. And why not an Adapted Screenplay nod? It's a weaker year there. I'm not necessarily predicting these things but to say it has no other chances seems unwise. I also think people underestimate the power of the acting branch when it comes to Fences. Movies that were mostly acting plays like Les Mis and Theory of Everything have made it in pretty easily in the past, and this seems like it will be on the better received end of the spectrum. I also think the idea that only two "black" movies can get nominated, thus eliminating either Fences or Hidden Figures, is....weird. I don't see anyone arguing that Manchester By The Sea is taking a spot from Sully. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 (edited) Considering how barren Supporting Actress is beyond Davis and Williams (and I guess Harris as well), I would cackle with laughter if Michelle Monaghan got nominated for Patriots' Day as payback for @Grand Moff Tele. I don't think it'll actually happen, though. Edited November 29, 2016 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, filmlover said: Considering how barren Supporting Actress is beyond Davis and Williams (and I guess Harris as well), I would cackle with laughter if Michelle Monaghan got nominated for Patriots' Day as payback for @Grand Moff Tele. I don't think it'll actually happen, though. I want a Greta Gerwig nomination. I mean I'm sure she's gonna rule over us all one day, but why not start with this Academy recognition thing now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 Here's the Satellite Award noms. They usually match the Oscars pretty closely, so worth checking out. Also, their press release is in a weird order, so sorry about that. Good day for Hidden Figures. Hacksaw Ridge gotta be feeling okay, too. They didn't screen Silence or Patriot's Day, fwiw. No word on if they saw Live By Night/Passengers/Collateral Beauty. Special Achievement Award Recipients Mary Pickford Award- Edward James Olmos Tesla Award- John Toll Auteur Award- Tom Ford Humanitarian Award- Patrick Stewart Best First Feature- Russudan Glurjidze “House of Others” Best Ensemble: Motion Picture- “Hidden Figures” Best Ensemble: Television- “Outlander” Actress in a Motion Picture Annette Bening, “20th Century Woman” Emma Stone, “La La Land” Natalie Portman, “Jackie” Ruth Negga, “Loving” Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures” Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” Amy Adams, “Nocturnal Animals” Actor in a Motion Picture Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” Joseph Gordon-Levitt, “Snowden” Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” Joel Edgerton, “Loving” Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” Tom Hanks, “Sully” Denzel Washington, “Fences” Actress in a Supporting Role Helen Mirren, “Eye in the Sky” Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea” Nicole Kidman, “Lion” Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures” Naomi Harris, “Moonlight” Viola Davis, “Fences” Actor in a Supporting Role Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” Dev Patel, “Lion” Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” Eddie Murphy, “Mr. Church” Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins” Motion Picture “La La Land” “Moonlight” “Manchester by the Sea” “Lion” “Jackie” “Hacksaw Ridge” “Loving” “Hell or High Water” “Nocturnal Animals” “Captain Fantastic” “Hidden Figures” “Fences” Motion Picture, International Film “The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki”- Finland “Toni Erdmann”- Germany “Julieta”- Spain “A Man Called Ove”- Sweden “The Salesman”- Iran “The Ardennes”- Belgium “Ma’ Rosa”- Philippines “The Handmaiden”- South Korea “Elle”- France “Paradise”- Russia Motion Picture, Animated or Mixed Media Title of Film “Zootopia” “Kubo and the Two Strings” “Moana” “Finding Dory” “My Life As a Zucchini” “The Jungle Book” “The Red Turtle” “Miss Hokusai” “Trolls” “Your Name” Motion Picture, Documentary “Gleason” “Life Animated” “O.J.: Made in America” “13th” “The Ivory Game” “The Eagle Huntress” “Tower” “Fire at Sea” “Zero Days” “The Beatles: Eight Days a Week” Director Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge” Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” Tom Ford, “Nocturnal Animals” Pablo Larrain, “Jackie” Denzel Washington, “Fences” Screenplay, Original Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea” Taylor Sheridan, “Hell or High Water” Matt Ross, “Captain Fantastic” Yorgos Lanthimos/Efthymis Filippou, “The Lobster” Screenplay, Adapted Andrew Knight/Robert Schenkkan, “Hacksaw Ridge” Luke Davis, “Lion” Kieran Fitzgerald/Oliver Stone, “Snowden” Justin Marks, “The Jungle Book” Allison Schroeder, “Hidden Figures” Todd Komarnicki, “Sully” Original Score Rupert Gregson Williams, “Hacksaw Ridge” Justin Hurwitz, “La La Land” Lesley Barber, “Manchester by the Sea” John Williams, “The BFG” John Debney, “The Jungle Book” Hans Zimmer, “Hidden Figures” Original Song “Audition”- ‘La La Land’ “City of Stars”- ‘La La Land’ “Dancing with Your Shadow”- ‘Po’ “Can’t Stop the Feeling”- ‘Trolls’ “I’m Still Here”- ‘Miss Sharon Jones’ “Running”- ‘Hidden Figures’ Cinematography John Toll, “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” Linus Sandgren, “La La Land” James Laxton, “Moonlight” Simon Duggan, “Hacksaw Ridge” Jani-Petteri Passi, “The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki” Bill Pope, “The Jungle Book” Visual Effects “The Jungle Book” “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” “Doctor Strange” “The BFG” “Sully” “Deadpool” Film Editing Tom Cross, “La La Land” Joi McMillon/Nat Sanders, “Moonlight” Tim Squyres, “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” Alexandre de Francheschi, “Lion” John Gilbert, “Hacksaw Ridge” Steven Rosenblum, “The Birth of a Nation” Sound (Editing and Mixing) “La La Land” “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” “Hacksaw Ridge” “The Jungle Book” “Allied” “13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi” Art Direction and Production Design David Wasco, “La La Land” Barry Robinson, “Hacksaw Ridge” Jean Rabasse, “Jackie” Christophe Glass, “The Jungle Book” Gary Freeman, “Allied” Dan Hennah, “Alice Through the Looking Glass” Costume Design Colleen Atwood, “Alice Through the Looking Glass” Eimer Ní Mhaoldomhnaigh, “Love & Friendship” Courtney Hoffman, “Captain Fantastic” Madeline Fontaine, “Jackie” Mary Zophres, “La La Land” Alexandra Byrne, “Doctor Strange” 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 lmao no. The Satellite noms are usually a joke. Nominations for everyone! Also: their founder is named Mirjana Von Blaricom. That is most the Bond girl name ever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Weird that they gave both Jackie and Nocturnal Animals some Best Picture and Director love, but snubbed both for Original Score. Of course the real shocker is that someone actually cared enough to nominate Eddie Murphy in Mr. Church. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 just a reminder that the satellites got called out for nominating wolf of wall street when none of their voters had seen it a couple years ago. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 (edited) 3 minutes ago, filmlover said: lmao no. The Satellite noms are usually a joke. Nominations for everyone! Also: their founder is named Mirjana Von Blaricom. That is most the Bond girl name ever. Well, it lined up about 80 percent in Best Picture last couple years, that's all I meant. I'm just happy Nocturnal Animals got some love. I actually really really liked that movie. Think it's been slept on. Edited November 29, 2016 by Cmasterclay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Yeah, the Satellites have about as much credibility as the BFCAs (aka they only want to predict the Oscars by nominating everything). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Just now, Cmasterclay said: Well, it lined up about 80 percent in Best Picture last couple years. I'm just happy Nocturnal Animals got some love. I actually really really liked that movie. Think it's been slept on. I liked Nocturnal Animals too. That said, I'll be surprised if it gets any major recognition beyond a nom or two. I knew after those sure-to-be-infamous opening credits rolled that most people are gonna hate it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...